The PP would win the general elections of 29N with 120 seats, although the main advance compared to 23J would correspond to Vox. The YouGov poll for Ara, published on November 14, attributes 72 deputies and 20% of the votes to the formation of Santiago Abascal. Both candidacies would gather 192 representatives, 16 more than the absolute majority.
YouGov poll for Ara: votes and seats for 29N
The PP would obtain 120 deputies, the PSOE 104 and Vox 72. The combined total of PP and Vox would reach 192 seats, compared with an absolute majority of 176.
| Candidacy | Estimated vote | Central seats | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP, including UPN-PP | 29,6% | 120 | 112–130 |
| PSOE | 25,9% | 104 | 96–113 |
| Vox | 20,0% | 72 | 64–80 |
| Frente Amplio | Not available | 19 | 12–25 |
| Podemos | Not available | 0, most probable scenario | 0–1 |
Source: YouGov poll published by Ara . Fieldwork: from 26 October to 2 November 2026; 1,221 internet interviews. The table does not include all of Congress. «Not available» indicates that the percentage does not appear in the information consulted, not that it is zero. Individual ranges should not be added as if their endpoints were joint scenarios. The popular candidacy includes UPN-PP according to the record provided.
The PSOE would come second, with 25.9% of the votes and 104 seats. The distance with the PP would be 3.7 points and 16 deputies. Frente Amplio would reach 19 representatives, while Podemos would move between being left out of the Congress and getting a seat.
Vox would account for more than a third of the deputies in the right-wing bloc
The combined percentages of the PP and Vox would reach 49.6%. Its parliamentary translation, according to the central scenario published, would be enough to exceed the 176 deputies needed for an absolute majority. That does not mean that every possible combination of the brackets would produce that same result.
The most relevant change would be in the distribution of forces within that majority: Vox’s 72 deputies would represent 37.5% of the bloc’s 192. Abascal would have a group equivalent to 60% of the size of the PP. It is a balance of forces that, if confirmed, would strengthen its negotiating capacity with Feijóo.
The PSOE would lose 17 seats and Vox would gain 39 compared to the 23J
Comparison with the 2023 general elections shows movements that are very different. The PSOE would go from 121 to 104 seats, while Vox would grow from 33 to 72. Frente Amplio would be twelve seats below the 31 that Sumar obtained, although the comparison requires remembering that Podemos ran then within that coalition.
YouGov ahead of 23J: how much each candidacy changes
Vox would win 39 seats compared with 2023 and the PSOE would lose 17. The comparison of the popular candidacy uses the sum of the PP and UPN in the previous elections.
| Candidacy | 23J vote | YouGov vote | Vote difference | 23J seats | YouGov seats | Seat difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP and UPN / PP–UPN candidacy | 33,3% | 29,6% | −3,7 points | 138 | 120 | −18 |
| PSOE | 31,7% | 25,9% | −5,8 points | 121 | 104 | −17 |
| Vox | 12,4% | 20,0% | +7,6 points | 33 | 72 | +39 |
| Sumar in 2023 / Broad Front | 12,3% | Not available | Not calculable | 31 | 19 | −12 |
| Podemos alone | Integrated in Sumar | Not available | Not comparable | Integrated in Sumar | 0–1 | Not comparable |
Source: 23J results and YouGov survey for Ara . 2023 percentages rounded to one decimal place. In 2023, PP and UPN stood separately and obtained 137 and 1 seats, respectively. Comparing the current 120 seats only with the PP’s 137 would give a difference of −17. Broad Front is compared with Sumar as an electoral reference: the candidacies do not have an identical composition. Podemos was integrated into Sumar in 2023 and does not have a separate comparable result.
In the popular case there is an important nuance: the card that accompanies the poll identifies its candidacy as PP, including UPN-PP. Comparing its 120 seats with the 137 of the PP in 2023 results in a drop of 17; comparing them with the 138 that PP and UPN added separately raises the setback to 18. The table uses this second reference and points it out explicitly.
A survey published on November 14 with interviews closed on the 2nd
YouGov conducted 1,221 online interviews between October 26 and November 2. The technical sheet describes a sample adjusted by sex, age, region and voting recall, with subsequent weighting. It publishes a maximum theoretical margin of ±2.8 points at 95% confidence, calculated for the assumption of a simple random sample.
The closing date matters: the poll reflects responses prior to the start of the official campaign. Therefore, it does not allow measuring the movements of its first days nor attributing to a specific event the differences with respect to other polls.