The PSOE improves, although the balance between blocs changes hardly at all. That is the main conclusion of the advance published this Sunday by El Español, pending knowing the full breakdown of its new Sociométrica poll for the general elections.
The socialist recovery comes after a week marked by the resignation of Óscar Puente following the Urda accident. The advance links both events, although the data released do not allow isolating how much of the electoral movement responds to the minister’s exit.
The PSOE recovers the two MPs it lost in the previous poll
The delivery of November 1 placed the PSOE at 106 seats. The new advance indicates that it recovers two, which would raise its representation to 108. This is an improvement over the previous week, but insufficient to change the majority Sociométrica projects.
The advance places it at 145 deputies for the whole set it identifies as Sánchez’s investiture bloc, 31 short of the absolute majority. Therefore, the PSOE recovery does not translate into an equivalent increase in that parliamentary total, which was also 145 in the previous publication.
PP and Vox move from 203 to 202 seats, counting the Navarre coalition
In the November 1 poll, the PP obtained 137 deputies, plus the two from the UPN-PP candidacy in Navarre. Vox reached 64. The three figures added up to 203 representatives.
This Sunday’s advance reduces that total to 202. It is a step back of one seat, but it keeps the bloc clearly above the 176 needed to reach the absolute majority.
The new individual seats for PP and Vox and their vote percentages have not been advanced yet. El Español describes an upward trend for Vox, but does not specify its magnitude.
What we know about the vote and what remains to be published
The previous poll gave the PP 32.2%, the PSOE 26.6%, and Vox 19.1%. Those percentages correspond to the delivery of November 1: the advance from the 8th still does not offer its updated figures.
Among the newly published data, the 2.2% of SALF and the 1.2% attributed to Podemos are included where it runs alone. None of those candidacies would obtain representation through that route, according to the update. The precision about Podemos is relevant, because its participation in territorial alliances must be distinguished from its own lists.
El Español also advances that the forces of sovereignist left would add 26 seats. The full breakdown will be necessary to check how the moves are distributed among candidacies and territories.
See here the advance in El Español