The opinion polls by IMOP and Sondaxe published this Sunday place the PP and the PSOE below 30%. Their simple average leaves the popular party at 29.75%, the socialists at 26.60%, and Vox at 19.25%, almost seven points above 23J. The distance between the PP and the PSOE is 3.15 points.
The IMOP polls for El Confidencial and the Sondaxe polls for La Voz de Galicia offer two different snapshots of the general elections, but they share one result: the PP leads the vote estimate without reaching 30%, the PSOE remains below 28%, and Vox moves between 18.6% and 19.9%.
Comparing both studies, published on November 8, places the PP’s average advantage over the PSOE at 3.15 points. The PP and Vox add up to 49% in this calculation, although that percentage alone does not make it possible to determine how many seats they would obtain.
PP: two practically identical polls and an average of 29.75%
IMOP gives the Partido Popular 29.8% of the votes and Sondaxe, 29.7%. The difference between the two estimates is barely one tenth: it is the party for which these two institutes provide the closest results.
Its average comes to 29.75%. In both studies, Alberto Núñez Feijóo leads the electoral race, although the distance from the PSOE depends on the polling firm: 3.9 points in IMOP and 2.4 in Sondaxe.
Being below 30% in both releases, however, does not mean that the PP is moving back compared with those firms’ previous polls. IMOP had previously placed it at 28.5% and Sondaxe, at 29.2%. Both now record an improvement for the popular party.
PSOE: between 25.9% and 27.3%, with an average of 26.60%
The differences are greater in the case of the PSOE. IMOP attributes 25.9% to it, while Sondaxe raises its estimate to 27.3%. Between those two figures there are 1.4 points.
The simple average places the socialists at 26.60%, behind the PP in both studies.
The polling firms also do not agree on the movement compared with their previous releases. IMOP records a drop for the PSOE from 27.1% to 25.9%. Sondaxe, on the other hand, reports an increase from 26.9% to 27.3%.
Vox fired up: close to 20% in IMOP and an average of 19.25%
Vox gets 19.9% in IMOP and 18.6% in Sondaxe. The average of both estimates is 19.25%, consolidating its third position.
Compared with the previous installments, the Santiago Abascal party loses one tenth in IMOP and six in Sondaxe. This recent setback coexists with a result much higher than the one it achieved in the general elections of 2023.
The sum of PP and Vox reaches 49.7% in IMOP and 48.3% in Sondaxe. Its average is exactly 49%, calculated before rounding the individual means.
Against the 23J: PP and PSOE lose support and Vox gains almost seven points
Comparison with the July 2023 elections shows a scenario different from that of the evolution between polls.
Taking the 23J results rounded to one decimal place, the PP goes from 33.1% to 29.75% in this average: 3.35 points less. The PSOE drops from 31.7% to 26.60%, a difference of 5.10 points.
Vox takes the opposite path: from 12.4% to 19.25%, an increase of 6.85 points. These differences compare actual votes from 2023 with current estimates, not results from an election that has already taken place.
What would happen in seats: an approximation places the PP at 126 seats, the PSOE at 112 and Vox at 65
An indicative extrapolation of Sondaxe percentages would place the PP at around 126 seats, the PSOE at 112, and Vox at 65. The calculation takes as its reference the relationship between vote and seats of IMOP and adjusts it to the percentage of each party in Sondaxe. This is not a distribution published by Sondaxe nor a provincial simulation: it assumes that each political formation maintains approximately the parliamentary performance attributed to it by IMOP.
By combining this exercise with the seats published by IMOP—126 for the PP, 106 for the PSOE, and 70 for Vox—the resulting average would be 126 popular seats, 109 socialist seats, and 67.5 for Vox. Compared to the Congress elected on 23J, it would mean 11 fewer seats for the PP, 12 fewer for the PSOE, and around 35 more for Vox. It is a combination of a published projection and an own extrapolation, not an average of two polling projections.
In that illustrative scenario, the PP and Vox would add up to around 194 seats. The figure depends on the assumption used: the actual distribution may change due to the provincial distribution of the vote and the results of the other candidacies.
| Party | IMOP published | Sondaxe own extrapolation | Illustrative average | 23J 2023 | Difference with the 23J |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 126 | ≈126 | 126 | 137 | −11 |
| PSOE | 106 | ≈112 | 109 | 121 | −12 |
| Vox | 70 | ≈65 | 67,5 | 33 | +34,5 |
Methodology: seats published by IMOP multiplied by the ratio between the percentage of Sondaxe and that of IMOP for each party, rounding afterwards to whole deputies. The average combines those results with IMOP in equal parts. The decimals correspond to an average, not to fractional deputies. This exercise does not apply the provincial allocation or model the rest of the candidacies; it should not be attributed to Sondaxe. SW Demoscopia does not participate in the calculation.