The first advance of SocioMétrica published after the Urda railway accident points to a change with respect to its previous poll: PP and Vox would increase both their vote share and their representation, while the PSOE would fall back. This is announced by El Español, which will publish the full breakdown tonight.
The reference is the poll of October 25. Then, PP obtained 32% and 135 deputies, with another two assigned separately to the UPN-PP candidacy of Navarra. The PSOE reached 27% and 108 seats, while Vox stood at 18.6% and 63 representatives.
The advance makes it possible to know the direction of the movements, but not their magnitude. It has still not been published how many deputies each formation would gain nor how much the PSOE would fall back.
PP and Vox grow from the 198 seats of the previous week
The two right-wing parties start from a total of 198 deputies in the previous release. With the two from UPN-PP, the total reached 200.
If the same separation of candidacies is maintained and both increase their representation, PP and Vox would surpass their previous 198 seats. The exact figure, and the position of the Navarrese list, remain pending the full publication.
El Español also advances that Feijóo widens his lead over Sánchez and improves his 2023 result. However, to compare correctly it will be necessary to check whether that improvement refers to the PP separately or includes the joint candidacy with UPN.
Vox, for its part, would move closer to 20% of the vote. The immediate reference is the 18.6% and the 63 deputies it obtained on October 25.
The PSOE slows its recovery and the alternative left again comes under pressure
The Socialist movement would be contrary to that of the previous release. Between October 11 and 25, the PSOE had gone from 104 to 108 deputies and from 26.2% to 27%. The new advance announces a setback, although it still does not specify its size.
For Frente Amplio, El Español anticipates difficulties in obtaining representation outside Madrid, Catalonia, Aragón and the Balearic Islands. That territorial delimitation does not on its own make it possible to calculate its number of deputies: a single community can contribute several seats in different provinces.
Podemos would continue without representation in the constituencies where it stands alone. It would also not obtain deputies for Unidad del Pueblo Canario. This does not mean that any Podemos candidate could not be elected, given that it also participates in territorial alliances.
ERC and Bildu improve, while Junts and PNV fall back
The advance likewise points to a strengthening of ERC and EH Bildu against Junts and PNV. The previous poll attributed nine seats to ERC-Podemos, seven to Bildu, seven to Junts and four to the PNV.
It also describes an improvement in Adelante Andalucía and in the Valencian alliance headed by Compromís. However, the advance does not specify whether all those movements translate into more deputies, a higher share of the vote, or both.
A release after the accident, with the distribution and dates pending
The technical sheet describes tracking with 4,893 online interviews accumulated since September 1, with estimation cuts and weighting by date.
The advance also does not detail how many responses after the accident enter into the new estimate. Its publication makes it possible to report the changes announced by SocioMétrica, but not to isolate how much corresponds to the accident, the Government's response, or other factors.>