Most of the right remains above 200 seats, but it is reduced compared to the previous Celeste-Tel of September. The survey disseminated by Onda Cero on 6 November attributes 204 deputies for the combined PP, Vox, and the Navarrese candidacy of UPN with the populares: six fewer than the 210 that those forces gathered in the previous reference.
The PP continues in first place, with 31.4% of the vote and 136 representatives, to which two from UPN-PP are added. The PSOE retains 101 seats and rises from 25.4% to 25.7%, while Vox advances from 17.8% to 19.2% and moves from 62 to 66 deputies. The comparison draws a smaller conservative majority and an internal distribution more favorable to Santiago Abascal.
PP and UPN go from 148 to 138 deputies
The drop for the PP is eleven seats if one compares exclusively the ranks published under its own party symbols: from 147 in September to 136 in November. Its percentage retreats 2.5 points, from 33.9% to 31.4%.
However, the territorial comparison that is more consistent includes Navarre. In September, the PP and UPN appeared separately and together added up to 148 deputies; now, the PP and the Navarrese coalition total 138. The combined setback is ten seats.
The advantage over the PSOE also narrows. When comparing only the PP figures, it goes from 8.5 to 5.7 points. With the 0.4% of the UPN-PP candidacy added, the current difference reaches 6.1 points. In representation, the PP leads the socialists by 35 deputies, or by 37 when incorporating the Navarrese coalition.
Vox wins four seats and doubles its result from 23J
Vox compensates part of the decline of the populares: its four additional deputies reduce to six the loss of the right as a whole. The resulting 204 seats are situated 28 above the absolute majority. Without counting UPN-PP, the strict sum of PP and Vox would be 202.
The comparison with 2023 shows where the parliamentary growth of the bloc is concentrated. PP and UPN then obtained 138 representatives between them, exactly the same number that the equivalent candidacies gather now. Vox, by contrast, goes from the 33 of 23J to the 66 of this estimate.
Thus, the net increase of the bloc, from 171 to 204, coincides with Abascal’s 33 additional deputies. That coincidence describes the parliamentary distribution; it does not, by itself, identify where their voters come from.
The PSOE keeps 101 and Frente Amplio improves on Sumar’s figure
The PSOE remains twenty seats below the 121 it achieved in the last general elections. But compared with the Celeste-Tel of September, it does not lose representation and improves three tenths in the estimate published. The setback with respect to 23J and the evolution between polls are different comparisons.
Frente Amplio obtains 6.2% and ten seats, compared with 5.1% and six that the original September report attributed to Sumar without Compromís. There are four more representatives among the published labels, although the reconfiguration of the candidacies prevents it from being interpreted as a comparison between identical coalitions.
Podemos drops from 3.3% to 1.9% and from three seats to one. Compromís maintains three representatives and Adelante Andalucía appears with another three. ERC gains one, up to eight, and EH Bildu goes from six to seven. The PNV loses one seat and stays at four; Junts keeps six, the BNG two, and Coalición Canaria one.
What this Celeste-Tel allows us to say about Urda
The new poll is published after the railway tragedy, but the information consulted does not specify its fieldwork dates. Therefore, it does not allow verifying how many interviews were conducted after the accident or attributing a specific gain or loss of seats to Urda.
The previously verified reference used 1,100 telephone interviews conducted from 16 to 21 September. More than a month passes between the two studies, during which the campaign and the candidacies change. With these data, the verifiable assessment is that the right retains a large majority, although smaller than in September, and the PSOE maintains its representation.
See all the details of the poll on Onda Cero
| Candidacy | September Vote · Seats | November Vote · Seats | Change in points | Change in seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 33,9% · 147 | 31,4% · 136 | −2,5 | −11 |
| UPN / UPN-PP | 0,2% · 1 | 0,4% · 2 | +0,2 | +1 |
| PSOE | 25,4% · 101 | 25,7% · 101 | +0,3 | 0 |
| Vox | 17,8% · 62 | 19,2% · 66 | +1,4 | +4 |
| Sumar / Frente Amplio | 5,1% · 6 | 6,2% · 10 | +1,1 | +4 |
| Podemos | 3,3% · 3 | 1,9% · 1 | −1,4 | −2 |
| ERC | 2,0% · 7 | 2,2% · 8 | +0,2 | +1 |
| Junts | 1,5% · 6 | 1,5% · 6 | 0 | 0 |
| EH Bildu | 1,4% · 6 | 1,4% · 7 | 0 | +1 |
| PNV | 1,1% · 5 | 0,9% · 4 | −0,2 | −1 |
| Compromís | 1,3% · 3 | 1,2% · 3 | −0,1 | 0 |
| Adelante Andalucía | Not broken down · 0* | 1,2% · 3 | — | +3 |
| BNG | 0,8% · 2 | 0,8% · 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Coalición Canaria | 0,5% · 1 | 0,5% · 1 | 0 | 0 |
| PP + UPN / UPN-PP | 34,1% · 148 | 31,8% · 138 | −2,3 | −10 |
| PP + Vox + UPN / UPN-PP | 51,9% · 210 | 51,0% · 204 | −0,9 | −6 |
| Total number of seats | 350 | 350 | — | 0 |