Narciso Michavila places the renewal of the census among the factors that can tip the general elections of November 29. His calculation combines two movements: the entry of new young voters, among whom he attributes an advantage to the right, and deaths, which he estimates have reduced the electorate of the left more.
Dos semanas para las elecciones. Hoy toca domingo "datomusical": iré dejando en este hilo datos de cambios censales que ayude acomprender mejor lo que pasará el 29N. Os dejo con Dreams de Cramberries, pues las sociedades, como nuestras vidas cambian cada día. Oh, my life is changing everyday In every possible way And oh, my dreams It's never quite as it seems Never quite as it seems (Dolores O'Riordan, forever in my prayers) https://t.co/FrWUNy7NqF
— Narciso Michavila (@nmichavila) November 15, 2026
In the thread published this Sunday on X, the sociologist assigns a difference of 150,000 favorable votes to the right among new young voters. For that purpose, he adds another 150,000 voters as a difference due to losses from deaths, which, according to his analysis, harm the left more.
The sum of both components yields about 300,000 votes of relative displacement between blocs. It is not equivalent to 300,000 people who have changed parties: his argument refers to those who are added to the census and those who leave it.
Michavila’s calculation: more young people for Vox and more losses for the PSOE
"The impact alone on the demographic change caused by the vote would already mean a government reversal," Michavila maintains in the thread. The analyst concentrates the effect on two formations: he considers that the loss of left-leaning voters is fundamentally socialist and that the right’s gain particularly benefits Vox.
According to his estimate, the renewal of the census would raise the advantage of the state-wide right from 1.3 to 2.5 points: an expansion of 1.2 percentage points.
This is an electoral interpretation of demographic changes. The publications provided do not include the model used to assign political preferences to the high and low entries, nor a provincial distribution that would allow that balance to be converted into seats.
The outcome of the 29N will also depend on turnout, on changes in preference among those who could already vote, and on where the support for each candidacy is concentrated.
PSOE voters average 58 years old; Vox voters, 45
The second figure highlighted in the analysis is the age difference between the electorates. Michavila places the average Socialist voter at 58 years and the average Vox voter at 45: a gap of 13 years.
The PP appears with an average of 56 years, two less than the PSOE and eleven more than Vox. That comparison shows that the generational distance also crosses the right bloc.
Among the left formations there are large differences. Michavila assigns 53 years to Podemos’s electorate, 46 to Frente Amplio’s, and 43 to Adelante Andalucía’s. The overall average collected in the thread is 52 years.
| Party | Average age | Difference with respect to the overall average |
|---|---|---|
| PSOE | 58 years | +6 years |
| PNV | 57 years | +5 years |
| PP | 56 years | +4 years |
| Junts | 56 years | +4 years |
| Podemos | 53 years | +1 year |
| EH Bildu | 49 years | −3 years |
| ERC | 49 years | −3 years |
| Compromís: Front Valencià | 47 years | −5 years |
| Frente Amplio | 46 years | −6 years |
| Vox | 45 years | −7 years |
| BNG | 44 years | −8 years |
| PACMA | 43 years | −9 years |
| Adelante Andalucía | 43 years | −9 years |
| Se Acabó la Fiesta | 41 years | −11 years |
| Indicated overall average | 52 years | Reference |
Source: thread by Narciso Michavila on X of November 15, 2026
A census that changes due to births, naturalizations, and migration
Michavila puts the growth in the residents’ register at around 817,000 voters and breaks down its movements. Among the additions, he mentions 1.6 million young people who reach the age of majority, 600,000 naturalizations, and 300,000 returns of Spaniards.
On the exits, he counts approximately 1.35 million deaths and 350,000 emigrations. The latter movements affect the residents’ register in Spain; they should not be automatically confused with a loss of the right to vote from abroad.
The rounded amounts of his breakdown yield a net balance of 800,000 people, close to the 817,000 he indicates. The thread explicitly separates this analysis from the register of Spaniards residing abroad.
Official information from the INE places resident voters in Spain at 35,958,711 for the 29N and residents abroad at 2,769,645. In total, 38,728,356 people will be able to participate. The agency estimates that 1,615,127 residents in Spain will be able to vote for the first time in a general election for having turned 18 since July 23, 2023.
Michavila asks to debate who has the right to vote
The thread also raises a discussion about the relationship between residency, nationality, and electoral participation. Michavila contrasts the situation of adult foreigners who work and contribute to Spanish society without being able to vote in general elections with that of citizens who access suffrage due to their family and national ties.
"A thorough debate is deserved," he writes. His reflection questions how well the electoral system fits with demographic changes, although in the publications provided he does not develop a specific reform.
The analyst places the average age of the left-wing electorate at 56 years, compared with 50 that he attributes both to that of the right and to that of the nationalist. These are averages by blocks of his analysis, different from the ages he assigns individually to each party.