This is how the polls for the general elections are ahead of an advance: Catalonia supports the PSOE ahead of an advance while PP and Vox hover around 51 percent.

Pedro Sánchez would face an early election with the PP ahead and with a sum of PP and Vox that slightly exceeds half of the vote in the surveys gathered by DEMÓCRATA.

The average that gives the same weight to the 11 located signatures places the popular party at 32.1%, the PSOE at 26.5%, and Vox at 18.4%. The distance between the first two is 5.6 points. The advantage of the right remains when changing the way of calculating the average.

The territorial examination offers a less definitive answer. Catalonia is the clearest reference for a socialist victory in the localized regional studies. Navarra has a favorable precedent that is already a year old. They are two communities with favorable references to the socialists within the selected sample.

Catalonia offers the clearest reference for the PSOE

The barometer of the Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió published in July places the PSC first for Congress with 29% of the vote and between 17 and 18 seats. ERC appears next, with 17.7% and 10-11 deputies. Vox reaches 12.8% and 6-7; the PP, 11% and 5-6; and Junts, 10.8% and 4-5. The survey, conducted by GESOP, interviewed 2,000 people in person between May and June.

The size of that advantage gives Catalan socialism a different position than that shown by national polls. However, even winning, the PSC would remain below the 19 deputies of 2023. Sumar would lose some of theirs. For Sánchez, maintaining the first position in Catalonia would not be enough by itself to rebuild a majority in Congress.

Nonetheless, here the date matters. It is a study prior to the summer and does not measure a campaign for early elections in October nor the effect of Ceuta or housing mobilizations.

Navarra retains a socialist option and the Canary Islands need a new survey

The latest territorial estimate with percentages localized for Navarra is EITB Focus, by Gizaker, published on October 1, 2025. It placed the PSN at 23.6%, ahead of EH Bildu, with 19%; the PP, with 17.7%; and UPN, with 14.7%. The socialists maintained two deputies.

The provincial projection of Sigma Dos released in August 2026 also retained those two Navarrese socialist seats. This coincidence supports the PSOE's option, with the division of the right space between PP and UPN that may facilitate the PSN being the first list without that implying a left majority.

In the Canary Islands, the breakdown by Sigma Dos for El Mundo released in August depicted six popular seats and five socialist ones when adding Las Palmas and Santa Cruz de Tenerife. It is a parliamentary projection with a field prior to the summer.

Andalusia and Galicia show the difficulty of regaining ground

In Andalusia, there is indeed an explicit question about general elections within a survey conducted during the autonomous campaign. GAD3 for the Vocento newspapers placed the PP at 37.6% in May, the PSOE at 29%, and Vox at 18%. The distance between popular and socialist was 8.6 points.

Galicia provides a reference much closer to the closing of this work. Sondaxe, in the barometer published by La Voz de Galicia on September 27, places the PP at 40.3%, the PSOE at 26.7%, and the BNG at 14%. The published distribution is 14 popular deputies, seven socialists, and two nationalists. The PSOE would retain its seats, but would still be far from first place.

Murcia also presents a popular advantage in the localized own references. OBEDE-UCAM gave the PP 41.4%, the PSOE 28.8%, and Vox 22.4% for general elections in May. At the end of the same month, Sigma Dos for La 7 projected five popular deputies and between two and three for both PSOE and Vox.

What awaits Pedro Sánchez in each of the 17 communities

The table distinguishes vote estimation and seat projection. The dates are those of the publication of the indicated references. "Without recent verified estimation" means that a territorial survey for 2026 with estimated percentages for the entirety of that community in general elections has not been located; there may be national breakdowns or precedents. It does not equate to stating that no study exists.

Closing: October 3, 2026.

The table that may mislead when counting socialist victories

The report from 40dB. of September includes a breakdown of direct intention for seven communities. It is useful information, but it responds to another measure: what the interviewees answer, with abstainers and undecided within the base, before the electoral estimate. The regional samples are much smaller than the 2,000 interviews from the whole of Spain.

Galicia clearly shows the difference. In that breakdown, the PSOE appears with 28.6% direct intention and the PP with 20.7%. The subsequent territorial survey from Sondaxe estimates, on the other hand, a popular advantage. That comparison cannot be presented as a vote reversal: the measure, the sample, and the firm change. It is also not correct to color as socialist victories the communities where the PSOE leads a table of direct responses.

How the result of the general elections would look

The compilation brings together 11 surveys from 11 firms published between September 1 and the close of October 3.

Arithmetic mean with the same weight for each firm, including the CIS. PP and Vox: 50.5%. PP–PSOE advantage: 5.6 points. The calculations are made before rounding. In Celeste-Tel, Sumar (5.1%) and Compromís (1.3%) are added. Not all candidacies are shown.

The average of the 11 surveys leaves the PP at 32.1%, the PSOE at 26.5%, and Vox at 18.4%. The distance between PP and PSOE is 5.6 points. PP and Vox total 50.5%.

The result shows an advantage for the PP and a sum with Vox slightly above half of the vote. That is, a clear absolute, where there would be no possibility for Pedro Sánchez to remain at the head of the Government, under any combination as of today and with the surveys in hand.

The CIS changes the distance but does not invert the average

The CIS is the only one of the 11 firms that places the PSOE first: it attributes 31% to it, compared to 25.5% for the PP and 16.6% for Vox. As a check, the average per firm without the CIS leaves the PP at 32.8%, the PSOE at 26.1%, and Vox at 18.6%. PP and Vox would total 51.3%.

The breadth of the differences between pollsters advises reading the tenths with distance. More in Common places the PP at 28.7% and the PSOE at 27%, a separation of 1.7 points, while DYM gives the popular a 34.7% compared to the 26.3% socialist. However, the coincidence of the majority of studies in the order of the parties does not eliminate the uncertainty about the size of the advantage.

What Congress do the published projections draw

The seven surveys in the compilation that publish seat distribution place the sum of PP and Vox between 201 and 213 deputies.

The PP and Vox column adds the published figures of both parties; when there are ranges, it adds their extremes. It does not assume that all combinations between extremes are joint scenarios of the model. The mean is calculated by rounding. Absolute majority: 176 deputies.

The average per firm of these projections is approximately 143 deputies for the PP, 103 for the PSOE, and 64 for Vox. These are indicative figures calculated from the published distributions, with midpoints when there are ranges.

In 2023, the PP obtained 137 deputies and Vox 33: together, 170. The PSOE achieved 121 and Sumar 31. The most visible change in the gathered projections is in Vox and in the weakening of the space that participated within Sumar, which included Podemos. That is why the PP could win with a relatively close own strength to that of then and, at the same time, have a much larger parliamentary sum with Vox.

What would have to change during a campaign

The central reading today favors a parliamentary majority of PP and Vox. For an advance to open a continuity path for the PSOE, supports, participation, or both would have to change. Concentrating votes coming from Sumar or Podemos may improve the socialist result, but it does not guarantee that the joint representation of the left will grow. If a small candidacy loses the last seat of a province, that deputy may end up in another block.

Not all the left behaves as a single candidacy. The average per firm sums around 35.8% among PSOE, the Sumar space, and Compromís and Podemos. This does not include ERC, EH Bildu, or BNG

The candidacies that finally participate and the provincial distribution of the vote will matter as much as the national percentage, with the huge doubt of what may change in the electoral map if a 'Broad Front' of the left is formed.

There is, moreover, an inevitable lag. The most recent fieldwork among the incorporated national estimates ended on September 26. The data do not capture what happened after that day. Attributing an electoral reaction to the events of early October would be to anticipate a response that they have not yet measured.

With that limit, the balance is clear. Catalonia offers the PSOE its firmest territorial reference among the localized; Navarra maintains an option and the Canary Islands would be the big doubt: only in those three communities would Pedro Sánchez manage to win with the data available as of today.

In the whole of Spain, the advantage belongs to the PP and the sum with Vox comfortably exceeds the absolute majority in the published distributions. Sánchez would need a campaign to alter that starting situation. How much it could alter it remains an open question.