Catalan Alliance would become the second force of the Parliament of Catalonia if regional elections were held today, according to the Sigma Dos survey for El Mundo. The party led by Sílvia Orriols would obtain between 25 and 28 seats and 16.7% of the votes, compared to the two deputies it achieved in 2024, and would surpass Junts and ERC in the dispute for the independentist space.
The PSC would win again, but with a decline of between nine and eleven deputies compared to the last elections. The candidacy of Salvador Illa would range between 31 and 33 seats and 23.3% of the votes, a result that would leave the current president of the Generalitat without a sufficient majority to repeat the government scheme that allowed him to reach the Palau in 2024.
Catalan Alliance goes from 2 to up to 28 deputies
The data that most alters the Catalan political map is the growth of Catalan Alliance. The party would go from the two representatives obtained in 2024 to a range of between 25 and 28, which would place it for the first time as the second force of the Chamber in seats and as the first independentist formation.
The leap represents a radical change compared to the last elections. In May 2024, Catalan Alliance obtained 3.8% of the votes and two deputies. Now it would reach 16.7%, while its growth would occur at the expense of several formations, especially within the independentist space.
The comparison with the previous Sigma Dos survey also shows the acceleration of this trend. In June, Catalan Alliance appeared with between 19 and 22 deputies and 13.8% of the votes. In just a few months, the upper range increases by six seats and the vote estimate rises by almost three points.
The PSC wins, but loses up to 11 seats
The growth of Orriols coincides with the decline of the PSC. Illa would maintain the first position, but would go from the 42 deputies he obtained in 2024 to between 31 and 33. He would also drop from the 28% of the votes in those elections to the 23.3% now attributed to him by Sigma Dos.
The wear occurs after a first half of the legislature marked by problems in public services and by the debate on the management of Cercanías, the strikes of teachers and doctors, security, and the economic situation. The survey precisely reflects that discontent: 41.5% of Catalans believe that the economy has worsened, 68% rate the situation of public health negatively, and 67.8% believe that insecurity has increased.
The electoral fidelity of the PSC also offers a signal of weakness. Only 65% of those who voted for Illa in 2024 would now repeat their ballot. The party loses support towards ERC, Aliança Catalana, PP, and Vox, in addition to having 9.4% of former voters who are currently undecided.
Junts sinks while ERC resists
The main victim within traditional independence would be Junts. The formation of Carles Puigdemont would go from the 35 deputies obtained in 2024 to between 19 and 22, with 13.2% of the votes. That is to say, it could lose up to 16 representatives compared to the last elections.
The comparison with the previous Sigma Dos poll also points to a setback, although less pronounced: in June, Junts was situated between 20 and 24 seats. The formation therefore loses positions while Aliança expands its lead.
ERC presents a different evolution. The republicans would move between 19 and 21 deputies, practically in the same zone as in the previous poll and close to their current 20 representatives. With 14% of the vote, Oriol Junqueras would keep his party in the struggle for independence hegemony, although behind Aliança in the seat estimation.
The transfer of votes explains the advance of Orriols
The poll indicates that Aliança Catalana does not grow solely within independence. The formation also captures support from constitutionalist parties, which expands its capacity to alter the balance of the Parlament.
- 25.8% of future voters for Aliança would come from Junts.
- 12.4% would come from Vox.
- 10.4% would come from ERC.
- 7.4% would originate from the PP.
- 6.5% would come from the PSC.
This pattern helps explain why the growth of Orriols simultaneously affects different political blocks. The formation maintains a particularly tough discourse against immigration and, according to the poll, also manages to attract non-independence voters who share that position.
Vox would also improve compared to 2024. The formation of Ignacio Garriga would obtain between 13 and 15 deputies and 10.2% of the votes, compared to the 11 seats and 8% it achieved in the last elections. The PP, on the other hand, would move between 13 and 15 representatives, with 10.5%, compared to the 15 deputies and 11% of 2024.
Independence would regain the majority, but with a problem
The sum of the independentist forces would recover the capacity to exceed 68 seats thanks to the growth of Aliança Catalana. However, the result would have an immediate consequence: the formation of Orriols would be at the center of any independentist arithmetic, while the rest of the parties maintain a sanitary cordon around it.
In 2024, Junts, ERC, and CUP totaled 59 deputies and Aliança added another two. Now, the growth of the formation of Orriols completely modifies that picture. The independentism would have a numerical majority, but turning it into a governing majority would depend on parties with very distant political positions agreeing to negotiate with each other.
The result thus leaves a Parliament with more fragmentation and with fewer simple combinations to form a Govern. The PSC would continue to be the first force, but would lose the ability to repeat on its own the formula that allowed the investiture of Illa, while Junts would suffer a particularly intense setback and Aliança Catalana would be positioned at the center of the new board.
Source: Sigma Dos for El Mundo (09/10/2026)
| Party | Estimated vote | Estimated seats |
|---|---|---|
| PSC | 23.3% | 31-33 |
| AC | 16.7% | 25-28 |
| ERC | 14.1% | 19-21 |
| Junts | 13.2% | 19-22 |
| PP | 10.5% | 13-15 |
| Vox | 10.2% | 13-15 |
| COM | 4% | 4 |
| CUP | 4 | 3-4 |