Survey elections Catalonia: Aliança Catalana skyrockets and would already be the second force, according to Sigma Dos

The Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo predicts the sinking of Junts and a strong growth of Sílvia Orriols, who would go from 2 to up to 28 deputies.

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Catalan Alliance would become the second force of the Parliament of Catalonia if regional elections were held today, according to the Sigma Dos survey for El Mundo. The party led by Sílvia Orriols would obtain between 25 and 28 seats and 16.7% of the votes, compared to the two deputies it achieved in 2024, and would surpass Junts and ERC in the dispute for the independentist space.

The PSC would win again, but with a decline of between nine and eleven deputies compared to the last elections. The candidacy of Salvador Illa would range between 31 and 33 seats and 23.3% of the votes, a result that would leave the current president of the Generalitat without a sufficient majority to repeat the government scheme that allowed him to reach the Palau in 2024.

Catalan Alliance goes from 2 to up to 28 deputies

The data that most alters the Catalan political map is the growth of Catalan Alliance. The party would go from the two representatives obtained in 2024 to a range of between 25 and 28, which would place it for the first time as the second force of the Chamber in seats and as the first independentist formation.

The leap represents a radical change compared to the last elections. In May 2024, Catalan Alliance obtained 3.8% of the votes and two deputies. Now it would reach 16.7%, while its growth would occur at the expense of several formations, especially within the independentist space.

The comparison with the previous Sigma Dos survey also shows the acceleration of this trend. In June, Catalan Alliance appeared with between 19 and 22 deputies and 13.8% of the votes. In just a few months, the upper range increases by six seats and the vote estimate rises by almost three points.

The PSC wins, but loses up to 11 seats

The growth of Orriols coincides with the decline of the PSC. Illa would maintain the first position, but would go from the 42 deputies he obtained in 2024 to between 31 and 33. He would also drop from the 28% of the votes in those elections to the 23.3% now attributed to him by Sigma Dos.

The wear occurs after a first half of the legislature marked by problems in public services and by the debate on the management of Cercanías, the strikes of teachers and doctors, security, and the economic situation. The survey precisely reflects that discontent: 41.5% of Catalans believe that the economy has worsened, 68% rate the situation of public health negatively, and 67.8% believe that insecurity has increased.

The electoral fidelity of the PSC also offers a signal of weakness. Only 65% of those who voted for Illa in 2024 would now repeat their ballot. The party loses support towards ERC, Aliança Catalana, PP, and Vox, in addition to having 9.4% of former voters who are currently undecided.

Junts sinks while ERC resists

The main victim within traditional independence would be Junts. The formation of Carles Puigdemont would go from the 35 deputies obtained in 2024 to between 19 and 22, with 13.2% of the votes. That is to say, it could lose up to 16 representatives compared to the last elections.

The comparison with the previous Sigma Dos poll also points to a setback, although less pronounced: in June, Junts was situated between 20 and 24 seats. The formation therefore loses positions while Aliança expands its lead.

ERC presents a different evolution. The republicans would move between 19 and 21 deputies, practically in the same zone as in the previous poll and close to their current 20 representatives. With 14% of the vote, Oriol Junqueras would keep his party in the struggle for independence hegemony, although behind Aliança in the seat estimation.

The transfer of votes explains the advance of Orriols

The poll indicates that Aliança Catalana does not grow solely within independence. The formation also captures support from constitutionalist parties, which expands its capacity to alter the balance of the Parlament.

  • 25.8% of future voters for Aliança would come from Junts.
  • 12.4% would come from Vox.
  • 10.4% would come from ERC.
  • 7.4% would originate from the PP.
  • 6.5% would come from the PSC.

This pattern helps explain why the growth of Orriols simultaneously affects different political blocks. The formation maintains a particularly tough discourse against immigration and, according to the poll, also manages to attract non-independence voters who share that position.

Vox would also improve compared to 2024. The formation of Ignacio Garriga would obtain between 13 and 15 deputies and 10.2% of the votes, compared to the 11 seats and 8% it achieved in the last elections. The PP, on the other hand, would move between 13 and 15 representatives, with 10.5%, compared to the 15 deputies and 11% of 2024.

Independence would regain the majority, but with a problem

The sum of the independentist forces would recover the capacity to exceed 68 seats thanks to the growth of Aliança Catalana. However, the result would have an immediate consequence: the formation of Orriols would be at the center of any independentist arithmetic, while the rest of the parties maintain a sanitary cordon around it.

In 2024, Junts, ERC, and CUP totaled 59 deputies and Aliança added another two. Now, the growth of the formation of Orriols completely modifies that picture. The independentism would have a numerical majority, but turning it into a governing majority would depend on parties with very distant political positions agreeing to negotiate with each other.

The result thus leaves a Parliament with more fragmentation and with fewer simple combinations to form a Govern. The PSC would continue to be the first force, but would lose the ability to repeat on its own the formula that allowed the investiture of Illa, while Junts would suffer a particularly intense setback and Aliança Catalana would be positioned at the center of the new board.

Source: Sigma Dos for El Mundo (09/10/2026)

Party Estimated vote Estimated seats
PSC 23.3% 31-33
AC 16.7% 25-28
ERC 14.1% 19-21
Junts 13.2% 19-22
PP 10.5% 13-15
Vox 10.2% 13-15
COM 4% 4
CUP 4 3-4

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AI-GENERATED CONTENT

What parliamentary procedures are necessary for the formation of government in Catalonia after regional elections?

After elections to the Parliament of Catalonia, the formation of government follows a sequence of parliamentary procedures regulated by the Parliamentary Rules (especially articles 1 to 3, 51, and 127‑128) and by the Statute of Autonomy (Organic Law 6/2006, particularly the section regulating the election of the president of the Generalitat and the maximum investiture period).

1. From the elections to the constitutive session

Once the elections have been held and the results officially proclaimed, the call decree sets the date and time of the constitutive session of the Parliament. According to article 1 of the Rules, the Parliament “meets in constitutive session on the date and time indicated in the call decree, once the elections have concluded [...] and their results proclaimed.”

The session opens with the reading of the decree by the General Secretariat. Immediately after, the secretary general invites the members of the so-called Age Table to take their seats (art. 1.2 and art. 2).

2. Age Table and election of the Parliament's Board

According to article 2 of the Rules:

  • The constitutive session is initially presided over by the oldest elected deputy present, assisted by the two youngest as secretaries.
  • The oldest president declares the session open and one of the secretaries reads the list of elected deputies and any electoral appeals filed.
  • Then, “the members of the Parliament's Board must be elected.”

Once the Board is elected, its members take their seats and, according to article 3, the president of the Parliament declares the Parliament constituted and adjourns the session. This constitution is communicated to the head of State, the outgoing president of the Generalitat, and the presidencies of the Congress and the Senate.

3. Start of parliamentary activity

Once the new president of the Generalitat is later invested, the Rules link the formation of government with the organization of the Parliament. Article 51 provides that, “within the week following the investiture of the president of the Generalitat,” the Plenary, by absolute majority and at the proposal of the Board and the Spokespersons' Committee, must agree on the number and scope of the legislative committees, which will be constituted the following week. This is a key step for the new Government to process its legislative program.

4. Investiture debate of the president of the Generalitat

The investiture procedure is regulated, in parliamentary terms, by articles 127 and 128 of the Rules, within the “Chapter III. The promotion and control of political and government action. Section one. The investiture and political responsibility.”

  • The investiture session begins with the reading of a resolution by the president of the Parliament “in which a candidate for the presidency is proposed” (art. 127.1). This resolution is the formal act that opens the government formation process.
  • Next, the candidate presents, “without time limit,” their government program and requests the confidence of the Plenary.
  • After the candidate's speech, a representative of each parliamentary group speaks for thirty minutes, and reply and counter-reply turns are opened under the terms of the same article 127.
5. Votes and investiture majorities

After the debate, article 128 regulates the investiture votes:

  • First vote: to be invested, the candidate must “obtain the votes of the absolute majority” of the members of the Parliament. The election simultaneously implies approval of the government program presented.
  • Second vote: if that majority is not reached, the candidate may submit themselves “two days later” to a second debate and second vote; in this case, a simple majority (more votes in favor than against) suffices.
6. Maximum period and call for new elections

The Statute of Autonomy, in the section relating to the President of the Generalitat, establishes the overall time limit of the process:

  • The president of the Generalitat is elected by the Parliament from among its members.
  • If, after two months from the first investiture vote, no candidate is elected, the Parliament is automatically dissolved and the acting president immediately calls elections, which must take place between forty and sixty days after the call.”

Thus, the parliamentary procedures for government formation in Catalonia are structured in three blocks: constitution of the Parliament and election of its Board, investiture debate and votes with the majorities regulated by the Rules, and a maximum two-month period set by the Statute, after which the legislature fails and new elections must be called.

What are the functions and powers of the president of the Generalitat according to the Statute of Autonomy?

The office of president of the Generalitat is regulated in the Statutes of Autonomy of the two communities that use this denomination: Catalonia and the Valencian Community. In both cases, the Statute configures the president as the highest political authority of the community and, at the same time, as the ordinary representative of the State in its territory, with functions combining institutional representation, direction of the regional Government, and relationship with the Parliament.

1. Functions and powers in Catalonia

The Statute of Autonomy of Catalonia (Organic Law 6/2006, text in BOE) establishes that the President of the Generalitat:

  • Holds the highest representation of the Generalitat and directs the action of the Catalan Government. That is, he or she heads the Government and sets its general political orientation.
  • Assumes the ordinary representation of the State in Catalonia. In this capacity, among other functions, he or she:
    • Promulgates, in the name of the King, the laws, decree-laws, and legislative decrees of Catalonia and orders their publication in the Official Gazette of the Generalitat of Catalonia and in the Official State Gazette.
    • Orders the publication of appointments of institutional State positions in Catalonia.
    • Requests the collaboration of State authorities exercising public functions in Catalonia, in addition to others determined by law.
  • He or she is elected by the Parliament of Catalonia from among its members, and subsequently appointed by the King. A law of the Parliament may regulate term limits.
  • He or she has a central role in the relationship with the Parliament:
    • The Government ceases when the President ceases, and both the President and the ministers are politically accountable to the chamber.
    • The president and ministers have the right to attend Plenary and committee sessions and to speak, and the Parliament may require their presence and information.
    • May dissolve the Parliament, after deliberation of the Government and under his or her exclusive responsibility, and call elections within a set period. This power cannot be exercised if a motion of no confidence is pending nor if less than one year has passed since the last dissolution by this same procedure.
  • The Statute also regulates the cessation of the president: due to renewal of the Parliament after elections, due to an approved motion of no confidence or denial of a vote of confidence, due to death, resignation, permanent incapacity, or final criminal conviction with disqualification. Rules for substitution and replacement are provided, with clear limits: the substitute cannot, for example, dissolve the Parliament or appoint or dismiss ministers.

Overall, the Catalan Statute configures the President as head of the Government, highest representation of the Generalitat, and ordinary representative of the State, concentrating key decisions on promulgation of norms, calling elections, and political relations with the Parliament.

2. Functions and powers in the Valencian Community

The Statute of Autonomy of the Valencian Community (Organic Law 5/1982 amended by Organic Law 1/2006, text in BOE) regulates the President of the Generalitat with very similar features:

  • The President, who is also head of the Council, directs the action of the Council, coordinates its functions, and holds the highest representation of the Valencian Community, as well as the ordinary representation of the State therein.
  • He or she is elected by Les Corts from among its members and appointed by the King. The investiture procedure is articulated through the proposal of the President of Les Corts and a debate and confidence vote, with majorities and deadlines very similar to those provided in other statutes.
  • In the governmental sphere:
    • Designates the members of the Council (consellers), who exercise the Government and regulatory power, and directs and coordinates their actions.
    • The Council is politically jointly accountable to Les Corts, without prejudice to the individual responsibility of each conseller and the President himself.
  • In the relationship with Les Corts, the Statute provides:
    • The possibility for Les Corts to demand political responsibility of the Council through a motion of no confidence, which must include an alternative candidate for the Presidency; if approved, the President and the Council cease, and the candidate is appointed President by the King.
    • The power of the President to raise a vote of confidence on his program, a political decision, or a bill. If approved, the project is considered approved as sent by the Council (unless a qualified majority is required).
    • The power to dissolve Les Corts, by decree and with prior agreement of the Council, unless a motion of no confidence is in progress.
  • Additionally, the President may propose holding popular consultations within the Valencian Community, on matters of general interest in regional or local matters, in accordance with state legislation.
3. Common features and essential differences

In summary, in both Statutes the president of the Generalitat is: head of the regional Government, highest representative of the community, and ordinary representative of the State, with strong powers of political direction, appointment of consellers, promotion and coordination with the Parliament, and key powers over promulgation of norms and dissolution of the chamber and calling of elections. The differences are more of drafting technique and detail (for example, the explicit regulation of popular consultations in the Valencian case or the detailed enumeration of functions as State representative in the Catalan case) than of substantive institutional model.

What results did the PSC obtain in the last regional elections prior to 2024?

I have not been able to locate in the sources consulted, in this same search iteration, specific data on the results of the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) in the last Catalan regional elections prior to 2024. In particular, the retrieved documents do not contain vote figures, number of seats, or the exact position of the PSC in the party system for that election.

Given the type of question you pose —specific election year, vote percentage, seats, and ranking among parliamentary forces—, it would be appropriate to have:

  • The date and official name of the elections to the Parliament of Catalonia immediately preceding 2024.
  • The official results broken down by party, including:
    • PSC's vote percentage across Catalonia.
    • Number of absolute votes obtained.
    • Number of seats won in the Parliament.
    • Ranking of the political force in the Parliament (first, second, third, etc.).
  • A brief contextualization about the role of the PSC in that electoral cycle, both in the electoral competition and in the subsequent government negotiation.

The research trail available in this conversation has searched documentary databases that, on other occasions, contain quantitative references to electoral processes. However, in this specific case, the retrieved texts are unrelated to Catalan elections and the PSC's performance in them. They refer, for example, to debates on Spanish democracy, international issues, or labor and constitutional topics, without providing the electoral results table you need.

For methodological consistency, I cannot substitute that absence with figures taken from memory or obtained in another context different from this search. Doing so would imply offering you numbers, percentages, and positions not explicitly supported by the sources consulted in this iteration, which would go against the premise of working only with verifiable data present in those results.

If you want to obtain an answer with exact data, I recommend going directly to official sources or specialized electoral databases, which usually provide this information with the highest level of detail and reliability. Among them are usually found:

  • The official electoral administration, which in Spain provides results broken down by constituency, party, vote percentage, seats, and turnout. It usually allows filtering by autonomous community and election year.
  • Data portals of the Generalitat of Catalonia, where historical series of results of elections to the Parliament are normally published with comparative tables by party.
  • Academic repositories and electoral analysis institutes, which often include long series (several calls) and summarize the evolution of each party, including the PSC, in terms of vote and representation.
  • PSC's own materials —internal reports, electoral balances, press releases— which often highlight the vote percentage, number of seats, and the relevance of the result within the Catalan party system.

Once you have that results table, the reading you seek could be structured as follows:

  • Identify the year of the elections immediately before 2024 and the political context (territorial tensions, government cycle in the Generalitat, situation of the central Government, etc.).
  • Indicate the PSC's vote percentage and seats, comparing them with:
    • Its own performance in the previous regional election.
    • The results of other main forces (for example, pro-independence parties and other state or Catalan scope formations).
  • Place the PSC in the party system of that legislature: whether it was the first force, second, third, whether it led the opposition or was part of the government, etc., always based on official data and subsequent investiture or coalition agreements.

I regret not being able to provide you in this answer the specific numbers (exact percentage, precise seats, and ordinal position) you asked for, because they do not appear in the materials retrieved in this search. If you can provide the basic data yourself —for example, indicating the specific year or copying the official results— I will gladly help you interpret them politically, compare them with other calls, or analyze what they meant for the PSC's position in the Catalan party system.

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