The PP would be the most-voted force in the general elections of November 29, although its lead over the PSOE has been reduced to seven tenths, according to the latest More in Common Electoral Pulse. The estimate gives the popular party 28.3% of the votes, versus 27.6% for the socialists, while Vox reaches 20.8% and remains the third political force.
The survey, published this Tuesday, November 3, was conducted between October 21 and 25, before the Urda rail accident (Toledo) on the 28th. The polling organization has warned that part of its results, especially the electoral estimate, the assessment of the leaders, and opinions about the pre-campaign, may have become outdated after the tragedy.
More in Common had planned to release the study last Thursday, but decided to postpone its publication out of respect for the victims and their families. Finally, it has made the results public without modifying the original presentation, although it has moved the data most directly related to the electoral contest to the end of the report.
The PP slips back and the PSOE narrows the gap
The new More in Common estimate reflects a narrowing of the distance between the two main parties. The PP loses four tenths compared to the previous survey, carried out in August, while the PSOE gains six. The popular advantage thus goes from 1.7 points to just 0.7.
Vox continues to grow, with an increase of five tenths that raises its estimate to 20.8%. Among left-leaning candidacies, Frente Amplio reaches 7.8%, with an improvement of 1.2 points compared to the previous Sumar measurement, while Podemos slips back one point and stands at 2.6%.
The survey also calculates 2.4% for Se Acabó La Fiesta. Overall, PP and Vox together add up to 49.1% of the estimated vote, although the poll does not include a calculation of the number of seats to which this result would translate.
Housing recovers first place among concerns
Beyond voting intention, the study shows that housing has again become the country’s main problem. 44.2% of those surveyed include it among their three biggest concerns, 6.2 points more than in September.
The assessment of the causes of the housing crisis has changed over the last few months. While in February 44% attributed the problem mainly to speculation and 33% to lack of supply, now both explanations appear virtually tied, with 37% and 38%, respectively.
However, support for greater public intervention continues to be in the majority. 69% consider that housing is a basic right that must be protected through greater action by public administrations, compared with 28% that defends minimal regulation.
This position is also supported among right-wing voters. It is shared by 56% of Vox’s electorate and 52% of the PP’s, although the differences with those who defend less intervention are narrower than among left-wing voters.
When it comes to choosing solutions, 38% advocate combining the construction of new homes with measures against speculation and to rein in prices. Another 29% prioritizes increasing supply, and an identical percentage prefers to intervene on prices.
Immigration loses weight as a concern, but demand for control grows
Immigration appears as the second most mentioned problem, at 38%, after falling 7.9 points since September, when the Ceuta crisis had significantly increased its presence among citizens’ concerns.
The study detects a shift toward positions more favorable to controlling migration flows, although without a corresponding increase in rejection of all immigration.
72% of Spaniards declare themselves opposed to irregular immigration, but not to legal and controlled immigration, ten points more than in November 2025. By contrast, those who reject any type of immigration represent 9%, just one point more than a year ago.
The trend also reaches left-wing voters. Among PSOE voters, rejection of irregular immigration has gone from 50% to 62%, while among Frente Amplio voters it reaches 53%.
At the same time, 67% of those surveyed support a policy that combines greater border surveillance with more legal entry routes. This formula even obtains the support of 69% of Vox voters, according to More in Common.
Distrust in mail-in voting reaches 50%
One of the most relevant results of the study affects confidence in the electoral system. Although 64% of Spaniards trust the electoral process and the vote count, half of those surveyed distrust postal voting.
The differences between electorates are considerable. The percentage of distrust reaches 66% among PP voters and 81% among Vox voters. By contrast, among left-wing voters, confidence in the various electoral procedures predominates.
The survey also records the highest level of perceived polarization since More in Common began measuring this indicator in 2021. A 73% think that Spain is divided or very divided, while only 11% believe it is united.
Election polls themselves also do not escape distrust. Only 28% of Spaniards trust the CIS estimates, compared with 60% who say they trust little or nothing. Private polls receive a slightly better rating, although they also generate majority distrust, at 54%.
Three out of four Spaniards want to maintain or strengthen climate policies
Climate change takes a secondary place among the most immediate concerns, but measures to combat it maintain broad support.
56% think that Spain should do more to tackle climate change, six points more than in April. In addition, 74% support maintaining or increasing the ambition of climate policies, even in a context of debate about their economic costs.
Among PP voters, 38% consider the current measures insufficient, compared with 18% who judge them excessive. Vox’s electorate is more divided, with percentages close to 30% among those who call for more measures, those who consider the current ones sufficient, and those who prefer to reduce them.
Broad backing for electoral debates before 29N
The study also reveals that two out of three Spaniards, 66%, want electoral debates to be held before the general elections. Support rises to 73% when it is suggested that these meetings be mandatory by law.
The proposal exceeds 75% backing among voters of all parties. In addition, nine out of ten respondents want the information provided by candidates during the debates to be verified live.
The Electoral Pulse of October of More in Common has been prepared using 2,210 online interviews with adults residing in Spain and entitled to vote, conducted between October 21 and October 25, 2026. The indicative margin of error is ±2.44 points for the electoral estimate and ±2.21 points for the rest of the results, with a confidence level of 95%.