The latest review of Bankinter's investment strategy for the Spanish market places Santander, BBVA, CaixaBank, Indra, Iberdrola, Endesa, ACS, Ferrovial, Cellnex, and Aena as preferred stocks, according to its strategy and outlook report for the fourth quarter of 2026.
In the international section, the document includes a wide selection of semiconductor companies, among which are Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, TSMC, ASML, Micron, and LAM.
Within the technology sector, Bankinter bets on large American names such as Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Apple, Amazon, and Netflix. In the international banking segment, the bank includes Unicredit, Commerzbank, Intesa, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America in its list.
In defense, the entity combines its recommendation of Indra with other groups in the sector such as Rheinmetall, Leonardo, Thales, Lockheed Martin, and RTX, while in infrastructure it opts for Vinci.
For the 'utilities' business, the report points to Enel, E.On, RWE, and Next Era as references.
Regarding market forecasts, Bankinter anticipates that corporate profits will continue to surprise positively and that current valuations already incorporate a demanding context. Nevertheless, it estimates uneven upside potential: around 11% in Europe and up to 36% in the United States, driven mainly by the dynamism of the semiconductor sector.
For the Spanish stock market, the bank calculates a near 16% upward trajectory, above the forecast for Portugal (14%) and the regional average (11%).
The analysis team led by Ramón Forcada maintains a high exposure to equities, supported by "solid" profit growth expectations, favored by structural trends such as artificial intelligence, electrification, and increased defense spending. Additionally, it considers that the current risk balance is beginning to point towards a "more favorable" scenario for 2027.
"Regarding the risk balance, the market currently discounts a demanding scenario in key variables such as oil, interest rate expectations, or bond yields," the analysts of the entity indicate.
In this context, Bankinter projects that the price of oil will moderate towards 80 dollars per barrel as geopolitical tensions ease.
In the front of monetary policy, its forecasts contemplate that both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) will apply two additional interest rate hikes until the beginning of 2027, below the three increases that the market is currently discounting.
The report also emphasizes that the effect of the midterm elections in the United States, scheduled for next November 3, will be "reduced," as investors are managing a scenario in which there is a high probability that the House of Representatives will come under Democratic control.
Regarding the rise in sovereign debt yields globally, Bankinter predicts that the war in the Middle East will continue to put upward pressure on the price of crude oil above the psychological threshold of 100 dollars, which would continue to strain the yield curve of bonds.
In this environment, the analysis team maintains a fixed income strategy focused on high credit quality issuances, prioritizing the short and medium segments of the curve (up to five years), combining positions in public debt for diversification and in corporate credit with high ratings.
In the foreign exchange market, Bankinter considers that the entrenched conflict in Iran acts as a supporting factor for the dollar, which would remain strong against the euro in a range between 1.12 and 1.17 "greenbacks."
Likewise, the bank expects that the yen will slow its depreciation as new interest rate hikes materialize, the differential with Europe and the United States decreases, and coordinated interventions by the American and Japanese governments are maintained.