Just over a month before the midterm elections in the United States, the polls paint a more unfavorable scenario for the Republican Party than the one existing at the beginning of the year. An aggregate published this Sunday by El País places the Democrats 8.4 points ahead in the so-called "generic ballot," the question with which pollsters ask citizens which party they would support in the congressional elections without mentioning specific candidates. The measurement is mainly useful for understanding the national political climate and is more useful for interpreting the race for the House of Representatives than for the Senate, where each state holds a different election.
The individual polls published during September show differences in magnitude, but a similar direction. Reuters/Ipsos, in a survey conducted between September 17 and 20, placed the voting intention among registered voters at 43% for the Democrats and 35% for the Republicans, an eight-point difference and the largest recorded by that series during 2026. A week earlier, the same pollster had measured 44%-37%.
CNN, Fox, and Reuters place the difference between seven and eight points
The picture is repeated in other polling houses. A survey by CNN/SSRS released this week places the Democrats at 49% and the Republicans at 41% in voting intention for the House, again an eight-point difference. Among independents, the gap reached 11 points, with 45% leaning towards Democratic candidates and 34% towards Republicans.
The national poll by Fox News, conducted between September 11 and 14 among 1,211 registered voters, offered a slightly smaller difference: 51% to 44%, seven points. Among those who claimed to be sure they would vote, that gap increased to 54%-43%, although that data corresponds to a subgroup of the sample and has a higher margin of error. The poll itself indicated that since January, the Democratic advantage in its generic ballot had remained between five and seven points.
The coincidence among several studies is relevant, but it does not mean that this margin can be directly transferred to a distribution of seats. The 435 districts of the House of Representatives have different electorates and the Senate is decided State by State. The generic ballot allows measuring the national environment in which the elections are held, but it does not replace the polls of each constituency. On November 3, the entire House will be renewed, in addition to 35 of the 100 Senate seats and 36 governorships, among other positions.
Trump's approval falls to 32% in Reuters/Ipsos
Another indicator that is marking the campaign is the president's approval rating. Reuters/Ipsos places Donald Trump's approval at 32%, the lowest level recorded by that series during his two terms, compared to the 35% measured just a week earlier. His support among Republican voters also fell: it went from 82% to 73% in a week and is below the 86% recorded in January.
Other polls offer slightly better figures for the president, which allows observing the range instead of sticking with a single measurement. CNN places his approval at 33%, while Fox News raises it to 39%, with a 61% disapproval rate. The differences are explained, among other factors, by the methodology, the consulted universe, and the exact moment of the fieldwork, but all three studies agree in placing Trump's approval rating in clearly negative territory.
The very importance of Trump in these elections also appears in the polls. In the CNN survey, 44% say that their vote in November will be motivated by opposition to the president, compared to 19% who say they will go to the polls to support him; the remaining 37% say that their decision will not be a message about Trump. It is a measurement of declared motivations, not a forecast of electoral behavior.
The cost of living becomes the major Republican problem
The element that runs through almost all the polls is the economy. Reuters/Ipsos points out that the cost of living is the issue that Americans identify as most important in deciding their vote and only 17% approve of Trump's management in this area. Even within the Republican Party, a deterioration is observed: 44% of its voters now approve of how he is managing prices, compared to the 70% recorded previously, while 51% disapprove of it.
Fox News reaches a similar conclusion. A 34% of its respondents spontaneously mention the cost of living as the main problem in the country and another 14% cites the economy and employment, well ahead of immigration, with 8%. Additionally, 62% considers that the price of food is a serious problem, 61% says the same about gasoline, and 54% about housing. In that survey, Democrats received better ratings than Republicans for managing inflation by 15 points, although the pollsters themselves warn that much of that advantage comes from dissatisfaction with Republican actions rather than strong confidence in Democratic proposals.
This last nuance is important. The polls do not necessarily reflect a positive assessment of the Democratic Party: Fox News records a favorable opinion of 44% and unfavorable of 55% towards the Democrats, while the Republican Party obtains a 41% favorable and a 58% unfavorable. CNN also reports low approval levels for the leaders of both parties in Congress.
The war with Iran also weighs on the polls
The other major variable is the conflict with Iran, which began in February. In Reuters/Ipsos, only a 34% approves of the U.S. attacks, while 82% considers it likely that military involvement will last for a long period. The war has also coincided with an increase in fuel prices, which directly connects foreign policy and economic concern in the campaign.
Fox News also found considerable rejection: a 60% considers that the United States was wrong to undertake military action and another survey from the network indicates that seven out of ten voters believe that the Trump Administration lacks a clear strategy to end the conflict. Some Republican candidates in contested elections have begun to publicly call for a quick end to the war, although there continue to be differing positions within the party.
Immigration: Trump retains Republican support, but not a majority at the national level
Immigration offers a different picture. It remains an issue where Trump maintains very high support among voters of his own party: 79% of Republicans approve of his actions, according to Reuters/Ipsos. However, when the sample is expanded to include all Americans, support drops to 36% and disapproval reaches 55%.
Fox News shows a more balanced competition when asking which party generates more trust to manage this matter: the Republicans maintain a lead of one point, much lower than that recorded in previous years. The result reinforces one of the characteristics of this campaign: issues that traditionally offered wide margins to one of the parties now appear much more contested.
What the polls really say five weeks before November
As of September 27, the national picture can be summarized in three data points: several polls place the Democrats between seven and eight points ahead in the generic ballot, Trump registers a national approval rating of between 32% and 39% according to the polling house and the cost of living dominates voters' concerns. The aggregate cited by El País raises the national distance to 8.4 points, its largest difference so far in this campaign.
This allows for describing the electoral climate, but does not automatically anticipate the final distribution of power. The House is decided district by district and the Senate State by State, with candidates, participation, and local dynamics that do not appear in a national poll. Moreover, there are still more than five weeks until November 3, so new economic, international, or political events can still modify the preferences recorded now.
What the late September polls do show is a change compared to early 2026: the Republicans have lost ground in national voting intention and Trump faces his worst ratings of the year just as the campaign enters its decisive phase. The question that the ballots will determine is to what extent that national trend is reproduced in the House districts and in the States where Senate seats are contested.