Ebury contemplates "constructive" prospects for the Peruvian sol after the arrival of Keiko Fujimori to the presidency of the country, considering that her victory has reduced the political risk associated with a possible leftist victory and has ensured the permanence of Julio Velarde at the head of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP).
According to a report released this Wednesday, the high prices of copper and gold will continue to support the Peruvian sol in an international scenario conditioned by the prolongation of the war in Iran, the rising cost of oil, and a possible tightening of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (Fed).
The document also identifies the Colombian peso as the currency with the best performance in Latin America, having appreciated more than 12% against the dollar so far this year. This behavior is supported by the victory of the right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella and by the "aggressive" increases in interest rates approved by the Bank of the Republic (BanRep).
Still, Ebury warns that the Colombian peso's 'rally' could be starting to become overblown if De la Espriella does not manage to get Congress to greenlight his main economic reforms.
In parallel, the Brazilian real is consolidating as the second best-performing currency in the region, favored by high interest rates and crude oil exports. Ebury anticipates a rise in volatility as the presidential elections in October approach, in which Lula leads the polls, and expects the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) to end its cycle of rate cuts.
The firm's experts point out that uncertainty in Mexico regarding the review of the trade agreement with the United States and Canada (T-MEC) should begin to ease once it is renewed with certain changes, while the Mexican economy will continue to rely on the macroeconomic strength of the United States, nearshoring, tourism, and exports linked to AI.
In contrast, Chile will be more pressured by its high dependence on energy and by the loss of dynamism in domestic demand, although copper futures will provide support for both GDP and the Chilean peso. Ebury does not foresee immediate interest rate cuts by the Central Bank of Chile (BCCh).
In general terms, Ebury maintains that inflationary tensions derived from rising energy costs and climatic factors such as "El Niño" reduce the margin to apply rate cuts in Latin America and, in fact, the firm does not rule out new increases in Colombia or Peru towards the end of the year.