Sánchez closes the political course with the most fragile legislature: without Budgets, without spending ceiling, and with autumn as the definitive exam
This Tuesday, Pedro Sánchez will preside over the last Council of Ministers before the summer break with a political scenario very different from what he imagined when the legislature began. The president will take stock of the government's management, claiming economic growth, job creation, and Spain's international weight.
However, the end of the course comes with a much more complex political reality: he has not achieved parliamentary support for new General State Budgets. In fact, he has not done so throughout the legislature, with a spending ceiling again rejected twice in a row in a few days, by the Congress, and with a majority in both chambers increasingly unstable, and at the same time with several judicial fronts that continue to condition the PSOE's agenda.
The budgetary anomaly constitutes, probably, the best reflection of that weakness. Since the beginning of the legislature, the Government has not managed to push through new public accounts, and Spain continues to operate with the Budgets of 2023, approved in 2022.
In addition, there is the failure to approve the stability path and the approval of the public deficit path, an essential procedure to begin the preparation of new Budgets. Thus, we are facing the fourth consecutive year in which the Executive fails to overcome that first parliamentary obstacle.
The lack of new accounts is not merely an administrative problem. It limits the Government's ability to develop new public policies - especially the necessary investments such as the purchase of aircraft to fight against fires - as it conditions economic planning and forces the management of a very different reality with Budgets designed almost four years ago, in a completely different economic, international, and geopolitical context.
This institutional wear has its reflection in the Congress. The investiture majority that allowed Pedro Sánchez to remain in La Moncloa today shows evident signs of exhaustion. Junts has stopped acting as a stable partner and each relevant vote requires a different negotiation.
The formation of Carles Puigdemont has hardened his discourse and has distanced himself from numerous initiatives of the Executive, aware of the political cost that, according to different interpretations, has meant appearing as one of the supports of the Government.
Not to go further, the Executive of Pedro Sánchez has given up these days on carrying its new aids in favor of housing, precisely due to its inability to understand with the majority of political forces, which has caused the initiative to be postponed until the month of September, upon the return of the school year.
ERC and Bildu, the main supports of Sánchez and the judicial fronts
In that scenario, ERC and EH Bildu have become the most constant parliamentary allies of the Executive, although they do not guarantee by themselves the necessary stability to push forward the main legislative initiatives.
The parliamentary weakness coincides, moreover, with a particularly delicate moment for the PSOE on the judicial level. The so-called Koldo case continues to hit the party, while various investigations affecting the political and family environment of the President of the Government remain open.
In addition, there is the investigation into the rescue of Plus Ultra, which keeps open one of the procedures with the greatest political impact in recent months and in which former president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero is waging an intense legal battle to try to annul - so far without any type of success - part of the actions agreed upon by the National Court.
The growth of Spain against the highest unemployment rate in the EU
All of this shapes a very different context from the narrative that the Executive is likely to defend this Tuesday. The Government will emphasize economic growth, employment evolution, and Spain's international leadership.
However, the opposition contrasts other indicators that continue to show significant structural imbalances: Spain remains among the countries of the European Union with the highest unemployment rate, maintains a high public debt, drags productivity problems, records one of the highest child poverty rates in the European environment, and continues to face serious difficulties in facilitating access to housing.
The management of Next Generation funds
To that diagnosis is added the debate on the management of the European Next Generation funds. Although the Executive defends that the Recovery Plan is driving the modernization of the Spanish economy (this Monday the AIREF states that Spain has transferred 64 billion from the Next Generation funds, from the official allocation of 163 billion, less than a month before the management of these aids concludes), different economic and business sectors have been warning in recent months about the slowness in the execution of numerous projects, the administrative complexity, and the difficulties for part of those resources to reach the productive fabric quickly.
The renunciation by Spain of a significant part of the available European loans (60 billion euros) has also reopened the debate on the degree of utilization of one of the largest financial instruments launched by the European Union.
Housing and wildfires
The end of the course also coincides with other challenges that will continue to mark the political agenda after the summer. The housing access crisis continues without a structural solution, migratory pressure keeps several territorial fronts open, and the succession of large wildfires again highlights the response capacity of the administrations and the availability of resources to face increasingly frequent and intense emergencies.
With that scenario, Pedro Sánchez faces the last Council of Ministers before the summer break with the aim of claiming the management of his Government and projecting an image of stability. However, the real test will come starting in September.
According to what El Confidencial has published, La Moncloa prepares for an autumn marked by an intense international agenda, with several summits and major diplomatic events, in an attempt to relaunch the institutional profile of the president and recover the political initiative.
The unknown is whether that strategy will be enough to compensate for the accumulated wear and tear over the last few months. Sánchez will return from vacation with, to date, the same scenario he leaves this Tuesday on the table of the Council of Ministers: without new General State Budgets, with the spending ceiling rejected, an increasingly fragile parliamentary majority, and several judicial fronts that continue to condition the political agenda.
This is joined by doubts about the execution of European funds, the pressure of major internal problems, and an opposition convinced that the wear and tear of the Government will continue to grow.
The electoral scenarios
In this context, various political and polling sources consulted by DEMÓCRATA recognize that the electoral calendar has ceased to be a closed issue. Although the Government officially maintains that it will exhaust the legislature, in different political spheres scenarios are beginning to be considered that place potential general elections between the end of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027.
The decision will depend, to a large extent, on whether the president manages to recover an operational parliamentary majority and regain control of the political agenda or if, on the contrary, autumn confirms that the legislature has entered a phase of wear and tear from which it will be very difficult to emerge.