The Ibex 35 has begun August with a 1.01% advance and a new historical maximum, getting only 17 points away from conquering for the first time the barrier of 20,000 units.
The Spanish selective has reached 19,987 points during the session, an unprecedented level, before slightly moderating its advance in the final stretch. The index thus joins the succession of records registered this Monday by the main European stock exchanges, including the Stoxx 600, the German Dax, and the French Cac 40.
The momentum of the stock market has coincided with a new drop in oil prices and with the positive effect of the corporate results published in recent weeks.
The Ibex is at the doorstep of 20,000 points
The Spanish market has taken almost two decades to recover the highs before the financial crisis, but in recent months it has chained new records, especially supported by the strength of the banking sector.
The Ibex has managed to advance despite the reduced presence of technology companies and companies directly linked to the rise of artificial intelligence, two of the main engines of Wall Street in recent years.
The proximity of 20,000 points now makes that figure the main technical and psychological reference for the upcoming sessions. The index will have to demonstrate whether it is capable of surpassing that level and staying above it or if profit-taking appears again near the highs.
The fall in oil boosts the stock markets
The price of crude oil has once again acted as one of the main catalysts of the session. The barrel of Brent has fallen by nearly 5%, to around 83 dollars, after the United States announced a new pause in its attacks against Iran.
Donald Trump stated on Sunday that he had canceled a planned offensive after receiving requests from Tehran and other Middle Eastern countries to facilitate negotiations.
The U.S. president claimed that the proposal would contemplate the complete opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the end of the Iranian nuclear threat. However, Tehran has denied that there are direct negotiations with Washington.
The Iranian government maintains that its contacts are with Oman and that they aim to establish a safe route for the passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.
The moderation of oil reduces the risk of new inflationary pressures and alleviates transportation, industry, and tourism costs, although it harms oil companies whose revenues depend directly on the price of crude.
Inditex gains weight among the large stocks
Among the companies with the highest capitalization and most present in the portfolios of small shareholders, Inditex has stood out during the session, benefiting from the positive market climate and its high weight within the index.
The textile company recorded advances of over 2% during the session, which allowed it to make a significant contribution to the performance of the Ibex.
For the Inditex shareholder, the main reference will continue to be the evolution of sales, margins, and the impact of exchange rates on international business. The proximity of the quotation to high levels also forces a valuation of whether future growth justifies the price paid for the share.
The banking sector continues to be another of the structural supports of the index. Entities such as Santander, BBVA, CaixaBank, and Sabadell have accumulated significant revaluations and have a high weighting within the Spanish market.
Corporate results and share buyback programs have supported the sector, although the entities remain exposed to the evolution of interest rates, delinquency, and economic growth.
Repsol feels the drop in crude prices
The decline in oil has had an uneven effect within the Ibex. While the overall market benefits from lower pressure on inflation and costs, Repsol has been penalized by the fall of Brent.
The oil company recorded declines of over 1% during the session. The movement reflects the direct relationship between the group's revenue expectations and the evolution of international oil and gas prices.
For the small shareholder, Repsol's performance demonstrates that the same news can have opposite effects: cheaper oil can benefit airlines, industries, or tourism companies, but reduce the expected margins of energy producers.
Europe accompanies the Ibex at highs
The advance has not been limited to the Spanish Stock Exchange. The European Stoxx 600, the German Dax, and the French Cac 40 have also reached new records, supported by corporate results and the relaxation of energy prices.
Analysts maintain, however, a message of caution. The continuity of the increases will largely depend on whether geopolitical tension continues to moderate and whether central banks have room to relax their monetary policy in the coming months.
The main risk is that a new episode in the Middle East could once again drive up oil prices and reactivate inflationary pressures.
Doubts about artificial intelligence persist
In the United States, large technology companies have generally reported solid results. However, investors remain doubtful about the high spending allocated to the development of artificial intelligence.
The market is beginning to demand clearer evidence that the multimillion-dollar investments in data centers, chips, and new infrastructures will translate into sufficient profits.
The results of the S&P 500 remain, overall, positive. UBS analysts believe that the growth of corporate profits and the resilience of the U.S. economy continue to support equities.
The market prepares for a volatile week
Investors will also be attentive to new U.S. macroeconomic data and the employment report that will be published on Friday.
A labor market stronger than expected could reduce the chances of future rate cuts, while weak figures would fuel expectations of a more flexible monetary policy.
The evolution of the yen will be another reference after Japan and the United States have jointly intervened in the foreign exchange market to try to curb its depreciation against the dollar.
In U.S. debt, the yield on the ten-year bond has moderated to around 4.69%, while the 30-year reference has dropped to approximately 5.23%.