After yesterday's results in Andalusia, which left Juanma Moreno just two seats short of a majority, political sources consulted by Demócrata assure that VOX intends to demand a very high price to facilitate the investiture of the Popular Party candidate.
The parties located on the left —from the PSOE to Por Andalucía, passing through Adelante Andalucía, undoubtedly one of the great winners of the election night— have already announced that they do not contemplate, under any circumstances, abstaining to facilitate the re-election of Juanma Moreno at the head of the Junta de Andalucía.
An especially tough negotiation
The refusal of the left-wing forces was absolutely predictable. In this way, after the election results were known, the Popular Party is completely in the hands of VOX to carry out the investiture, in a negotiation that is presumed to be especially tough and with very high demands from Santiago Abascal's party.
During the campaign, and also in various interviews, Juanma Moreno Bonilla insisted that, with 40% of the votes, the reasonable thing was to be able to govern alone. That officially remains the objective of the Andalusian president. However, the political scenario left by the ballot boxes now places VOX in an unprecedented position of strength in Andalusia.
Santiago Abascal's party wants to enter regional governments and wants institutional power. They want ministries and political decision-making capacity. That is, the investiture —a step prior to the formation of the Executive— will presumably imply the negotiation of power quotas within the Junta de Andalucía.
Among the most coveted areas is the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, converted into a strategic piece amidst the controversy over the rejection of the Mercosur agreement, one of the issues that generates the most tension between both parties and where PP and VOX maintain practically antagonistic positions.
It is not the first time that Juanma Moreno sits down to negotiate with VOX. It already happened in 2018, when, with the investiture support of Ciudadanos, the Popular Party needed the external backing of the green party to bring forward the first non-socialist Government in the history of Andalusia.
Then, VOX supported the popular Executive from the outside. Now, however, the political price seems to be very different. In political circles, there is already open talk of a vice-presidency and even two ministries. And, among the main demands, in addition to the agricultural area, national priority and control of policies linked to security will be on the negotiation table, yes or yes.
Immigration, in fact, has been one of the main instruments of strength in VOX's discourse during this campaign. Its good results in Huelva, in particularly sensitive areas such as Lepe and Palos de la Frontera, where the pressure of the immigrant population occupies a good part of the political and social debate, have been decisive in achieving that additional seat that the formation has snatched from the Popular Party.
The result of VOX in Almería is also especially significant, where Santiago Abascal's party has managed to position itself as the second political force, displacing the PSOE to third place. A scenario that explains the party's solid electoral performance at the polls, despite the fact that most polls had taken for granted a stagnation and even a slight loss of electoral support, something that ultimately did not happen.
The no from the left
The formation led by Adelante Andalucía was especially clear and forceful yesterday. It acknowledged the victory of the Popular Party, but at the same time claimed that its political irruption represents precisely the necessary roadmap to dislodge the right and Juanma Moreno from the Andalusian Executive.
Por Andalucía will also refuse to facilitate the investiture of Juanma Moreno Bonilla.
The PSOE will do so, moreover, from the worst result in its history in Andalusia. Its candidate, the former first vice-president of Pedro Sánchez's government and number two in Ferraz, María Jesús Montero, acknowledged the defeat last night and assured that in the coming days she will carry out an internal analysis of the results, without yet clarifying whether she will last four years in the Andalusian Parliament. This Monday, the socialist leader admitted that she will decide it game by game.