Generative artificial intelligence is beginning to offer concrete figures on its impact on employment in Spain. This is according to the Funcas report, Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Market in Spain. Occupational Exposure, Effects on Employment, and Business Adoption, which places gross job destruction between 1.7 and 2.3 million jobs over a 10-year horizon.
The document points out that this loss would be partially offset by the creation of new occupations and by the complementarity effect on workers who remain. In parallel, Spain presents a medium-high exposure to AI compared to the OECD average and an acceleration in the business adoption of these technologies.
Specifically, 21.1% of companies with 10 or more employees already use at least one artificial intelligence technology in the first quarter of 2025, compared to 12.4% registered in 2023, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics.
A labor market at its peak with expanding AI
The report places this process in a context of labor market strength. Spain closed 2025 with 22,463,300 employed people, the highest level in its history, and with an unemployment rate below 10%, according to the fourth quarter Active Population Survey.
The coincidence between this historic employment high and the acceleration of AI adoption is not interpreted as a sign of no impact. The analysis distinguishes between two effects: that of substitution, which displaces human labor in certain tasks, and that of complementarity, which increases worker productivity in non-automatable tasks.
The magnitude of both effects and their distribution among sectors, educational levels, and occupations is, according to the report, the central issue of current economic analysis.
The study indicates that exposure to generative AI is not concentrated in manual labor, but in white-collar occupations with higher educational levels. This conclusion is based on the AIOE index, which links AI capabilities with the skills required in each occupation.
Furthermore, OECD data place the exposure of the Spanish workforce at 27.4%, slightly above the organization's average. However, the real risk of automation is estimated at 5.9%, below the OECD average.
The report underlines that exposure does not equate to automation or job destruction, as AI can act as a productivity enhancement tool.
Productivity: improvements in specific tasks
The experimental evidence gathered in the report shows significant productivity increases in controlled environments. In some cases, the increase ranges between 14% and 40%, depending on the task and the worker's profile.
However, the translation of these improvements to the economy as a whole is subject to debate. Some estimates place the aggregate impact on total factor productivity at 0.66% accumulated over ten years.
The analysis indicates that, although cost savings in individual tasks may be relevant, the proportion of automatable tasks in the economy as a whole remains limited.
Business Adoption and Sectoral Differences
The advance of AI in Spain is concentrated in certain sectors. The technological field leads adoption, followed by services, industry, and construction.
The data show that companies that use AI present a higher average productivity than those that do not use it, although the report warns of possible reverse causality effects.
In the labor market, job offers requiring skills in artificial intelligence have grown notably in recent years, while a salary premium associated with these competencies is observed.