The electoral polling aggregator of DEMÓCRATA is the focus of a report by Atresmedia on the evolution of voting intention ahead of the general elections of next 29 November. The network has used data from the tool to review the movements of the main parties since June and analyze how political events from the past few months have influenced them.
The report included the participation of Adrián Lardiez, Director of Parliamentary Information at DEMÓCRATA, who explained how to interpret the evolution of the polls and what differences exist between the punctual movements of a single survey and the trend reflected by the overall set of polling companies.
The aggregator makes it possible to bring together the estimates published by different polling firms and build "a common picture", Lardiez explained, who warned that changes are not always perceived immediately when all the polls are observed in aggregated form.
Ceuta and housing, among the events that have shaped the polls
The analysis begins in June, when the PP stood at around 32.4% of the vote estimate, compared with the PSOE’s 27.1%. Vox reached 17.3% and Sumar, later integrated into Frente Amplio, recorded 6.3%.
One of the first events that altered the projections was the Ceuta’s migration crisis from late July. During the week of 18 August, the PP reached 33.9% in the aggregate, while the PSOE fell to 26.1%. Vox held at 17.2% and the alternative left space dropped to 5.8%.
Lardiez has pointed out that the situation in Ceuta did have an impact on electoral estimates. However, he differentiated that movement from the subsequent evolution, during which the polls maintained a relatively stable trajectory.
The housing crisis and the protests in Puerta del Sol were another of the episodes captured in the chart. The encampment began in late September and coincided with the processing of two housing decrees that were rejected in Congress. Shortly afterward, Pedro Sánchez called early general elections.
The electoral call changes the evolution of the blocks
For Lardiez, the electoral advance marks a separation between two stages. Until the call, the estimates for the blocks had remained relatively stable; after, the aggregate began to reflect greater dynamism.
"The PSOE is on the rise from those," the director of Parliamentary Information said when describing the developments after the call. For its part, the PP had started a downward path, while Vox advanced in the estimates.
In the week of October 13, the PP stood at 31.7% of the vote estimate and the PSOE had closed the gap to 26.8%. Vox reached 18.6% and Frente Amplio was at 6.3%.
The analysis also addressed the possible effect of the railway tragedy of Urda, Toledo, on electoral behavior. Lardiez has avoided anticipating its consequences and has said that it will be necessary to observe how events are incorporated into the next polls, as well as how the parties evolve during the campaign.
The vote is also decided during the campaign
Beyond the vote estimate projections, Lardiez has focused on the role of election campaigns and at the moment when citizens finish deciding their ballot. "In my view, election campaigns increasingly decide the vote," he said.
The director has distinguished between prior identification with a political formation and the final decision of how to vote. He recalled that there are studies that place part of those decisions in the last days, and even on the day of the election itself.
DEMÓCRATA's election poll aggregator makes it possible to follow that combined evolution as new polls are incorporated, in an electoral process in which the movements of the last few weeks and the development of the campaign can still modify the estimates.