Donald Trump faces this Tuesday, November 3, one of the most important electoral appointments of his second term. The United States will elect the composition of the 120th Congress, with the renewal of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives and of 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate. Although the president does not appear on the ballots, the result will determine to what extent he will be able to carry out his political agenda during the two years he has left in the White House and what capacity the Democratic opposition will have to scrutinize his decisions.
The midterm elections, known as midterms, come at a time of wear and tear for the Republican leader. The war in Iran, the rising cost of fuels, and concern over the cost of living have damaged his popularity, while the Democrats have managed to place economic issues at the center of the campaign. A Reuters/Ipsos poll published last October 26 placed Trump's approval at 32%, close to its lows since he returned to the Presidency.
The same survey gave the Democrats a nine-point lead among voters considered most likely to participate, with 53% support versus 44% Republican. These figures, however, reflect voting intention on a national scale and do not allow the final distribution of seats to be guaranteed, which depends on the results of each district and state.
Electoral projections indicate that the Democratic Party has a chance of regaining the majority in the House of Representatives, currently under Republican control. The situation is more uncertain in the Senate, where Republicans have a majority of 53 to 47 senators over the Democratic bloc, including two independents who usually vote with this party. To take control of the Upper House, Democrats need a net gain of four seats.
What would happen if the Democrats win the House of Representatives
The first scenario is that the Democrats regain control of the House of Representatives, but the Republicans retain the Senate. This situation would force Trump to govern with a divided Congress, although it would not prevent him from continuing to exercise his presidential powers or using the veto against laws he rejects.
The main consequence would be a change in the Administration's oversight capacity. The House of Representatives has the authority to oversee the Executive's management, hold parliamentary hearings, request documentation and summon officials or political leaders. A Democratic majority would allow the opposition to lead the parliamentary committees and set their investigation agenda, something that could increase pressure on the White House.
The Democratic minority leader, Hakeem Jeffries, has already said that, if his party regains the House, he will promote a broad oversight agenda focused on the actions of Trump, his family and the main officials of his Administration. The Democrats intend to use especially the Judiciary Committee and the Oversight Committee, two bodies with important powers to examine possible irregularities in public administration.
To head these efforts, Jeffries has Jamie Raskin, representative for Maryland and the main Democratic leader of the Judiciary Committee, and Robert Garcia, congressman for California and a figurehead of his party on the Oversight Committee. Both could take over the chairmanship of their respective bodies if the majority change takes place.
The investigations could include appearances by senior officials, document requests and parliamentary summonses. However, compliance with these summonses can give rise to legal and political disputes, especially if the White House invokes privileges or refuses to provide certain information. The Department of Justice would have a relevant role in any criminal contempt proceedings, but it is not the only avenue for trying to enforce the Congress's demands.
The agenda for the first 100 days: health care, housing and the cost of living
In addition to investigating the Executive, the Democrats have prepared a legislative agenda for their first 100 days in case they regain the House of Representatives. Jeffries has organized five working groups that combine representatives from the progressive wing and the moderate sector of the party, with the aim of drawing up proposals that can obtain support within the party.
The priorities are concentrated on the reduction in the price of food, gasoline and supplies, access to housing, the cost of care and health care. The Democrats also want to recover certain tax breaks linked to health insurance and reverse some of the cuts to Medicaid, the public health assistance program aimed at people with low incomes.
These initiatives seek to modify measures included in the major fiscal and budget reform promoted by Trump, known by the president as his "big and beautiful law". The regulations include tax cuts and changes in different social programs, including new work requirements for certain health aid beneficiaries.
Jeffries has also announced his intention to promote votes on the Iran war and the tariff policy of the Republican Administration, two issues that have taken center stage during the election campaign.
However, recovering the House of Representatives would not guarantee the approval of these measures. The bills would also need to pass the Senate and obtain the president's signature. If the Republicans maintain control of the Upper House, they could block a large part of the Democratic proposals even before they reached Trump's desk.
The opposition's objective would therefore be twofold: to try to approve its priorities and force the Republicans to publicly state their position on issues sensitive to voters.
Trump's veto power: what he could block and what he could not
Donald Trump will remain President until January 2029, regardless of the outcome of the legislative elections. This means that he will continue to have his executive powers and, especially, the constitutional authority to veto the bills approved by Congress.
The president has already advanced that he is willing to use that tool if the Democrats recover the chambers. During an interview given in September to Fox News, Trump assured that he would assume a blocking role against the initiatives of his adversaries, although he also left open the possibility of negotiating certain agreements.
To overcome a presidential veto, the Congress needs a two-thirds majority in both chambers. If all its members participate in the vote, this means obtaining at least 290 votes in the House of Representatives and 67 in the Senate. These are very high thresholds that, with the distribution of forces contemplated in the electoral scenarios, would require significant collaboration between Democrats and Republicans.
However, the presidential veto applies to legislative bills, not to all functions of Congress. Trump cannot prevent, through a veto, a parliamentary committee from holding a hearing, investigating certain actions of his Government or requesting information in accordance with its legal powers.
The House also plays an essential role in the approval of budgets and the financing of the Administration. A Democratic majority could use budget negotiations to demand changes or conditions, although this strategy also entails the risk of triggering deadlocks that affect the functioning of federal services.
What would happen if the Democrats also win the Senate
The second scenario is that the Democratic Party achieves a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, which would considerably expand its capacity for oversight and negotiation against the president.
To achieve this, Democrats would need to recover at least four net seats in the Senate, where the Republican Party starts with an advantage of 53 to 47. Of the 35 seats up for vote this Tuesday, 22 are currently in Republican hands and 13 belong to the Democratic bloc. The distribution offers opportunities to the opposition, but it also forces it to defend its own seats and win in politically contested states.
Control of the Senate would have a particularly important consequence: Democrats could block the appointments proposed by Trump for key positions in the federal Administration.
The upper chamber must confirm federal judges, including the justices of the Supreme Court, as well as numerous senior Government officials, ambassadors and heads of public agencies. If Democrats secure the majority, they could reject presidential nominees, delay confirmation proceedings or refuse to process certain appointments.
The effect would be particularly significant in the event of a possible vacancy on the Supreme Court, where an opposition majority could condition the president’s chances of appointing new justices.
It would also change control of the Senate committees, expanding the possibilities of holding investigations, demanding explanations from government officials and examining the Administration’s actions in economic, judicial or foreign policy matters.
What would happen with a 50-seat tie in the Senate
One of the scenarios contemplated by the U.S. political system is that the Senate is divided into two blocks of 50 seats. In that case, the Vice President of the United States, JD Vance, would have the ability to cast the tie-breaking vote, a power recognized by the Constitution.
This would mean an advantage for the Republicans when it comes to resolving tied votes. The vice president could intervene in certain legislative decisions and appointments, provided that the applicable rules allow the matter to be resolved by a simple majority.
However, not all Senate decisions can be approved with only 51 votes. The Upper House has the mechanism of filibusterismo or filibuster, which allows debate to be prolonged and prevents certain legislative initiatives from reaching a final vote.
To close that debate, the backing of 60 senators is normally needed, a figure that forces parties to seek agreements when none has such a wide majority.
Therefore, a Senate divided 50% could allow Republicans to retain an advantage in certain votes thanks to JD Vance, but it would not guarantee them approval of any legislative bill.
Why a majority of 52 Democratic senators would still not be enough to pass all laws
Even if the Democrats reached 52 seats in the Senate, they would still face obstacles to carrying out their legislative program. That majority would allow them to control the committees, set the parliamentary agenda and approve decisions that require a simple majority, but it would not eliminate the restrictions imposed by filibusterismo.
With 52 senators, they would need to add the support of eight other legislators to reach the 60 votes that are usually required to close debate on an ordinary law. This does not mean that all laws need 60 votes to be approved: the final vote is usually decided by simple majority, but before that it may be necessary to overcome that procedural blockage.
There are exceptions, such as certain budgetary bills processed through the reconciliation procedure, which can move forward with simple majorities. However, even the initiatives that clear both chambers would still be exposed to Trump’s presidential veto.
That is why controlling both chambers would allow the Democrats to exercise a more intense institutional opposition and negotiate from a more favorable position, but it would not amount to having the freedom to approve all their proposals.
Could the Democrats initiate an impeachment against Donald Trump?
The possibility of a new political trial or impeachment also forms part of the electoral debate. If the Democrats regain the House of Representatives, they would have the necessary majority to initiate and eventually approve charges against the president, provided there is sufficient parliamentary support.
Hakeem Jeffries has not ruled out this possibility, but he has also not announced that he will automatically promote a removal procedure. The Democratic leadership maintains that any decision will depend on the facts that can be established during the investigations and on the conclusions reached by the parliamentary committees.
The process has two distinct phases. The House of Representatives can approve an accusation by simple majority, but it is the Senate that holds the impeachment trial and decides whether removal is appropriate. To convict the president, a two-thirds majority of the senators present is needed.
Therefore, even if the Democrats were to gain control of both chambers, a possible removal of Trump would require much broader support than an ordinary parliamentary majority, including presumably a significant part of the Republican senators.
The result of the elections could facilitate the start of investigations and political proceedings, but it does not anticipate their outcome.
The elections of November 3 will decide who controls Trump during the next two years
The legislative elections this Tuesday will define the institutional balance of the United States until the next presidential elections in 2028. A Republican victory in both chambers would allow Trump to keep a Congress more favorable to his agenda, especially on matters of appointments, fiscal policy, and approval of certain legislative initiatives.
If the Democrats regain only the House of Representatives, they will be able to intensify oversight of the White House and condition budget negotiations, although the Senate and the presidential veto will limit their ability to modify Government policies. A Democratic majority in both chambers would expand that control to the area of appointments and strengthen the opposition's negotiating position, without eliminating the blocking mechanisms provided for by the American system.
The electoral context is also conditioned by the economy. The Iran war, rising fuel costs, and concern over inflation have contributed to the deterioration of Trump's approval ratings, while Republicans defend their fiscal and economic measures and hope to maintain sufficient support in the decisive districts and states.
Polls point to a favorable situation for the Democrats in the House of Representatives, but the result remains undecided and the Senate remains especially contested. It will be the votes of November 3 that determine whether Trump faces the last two years of his term with the backing of both chambers or with an opposition capable of increasing political oversight of his Administration.