Does the most voted win or the one who forms the Government? Probably, the answer will be different if you ask Sánchez or Feijóo. Although both could change their minds and sell themselves as winners, whatever happens in the general elections of November 29. But one thing is clear: it is not necessary to be the one who receives the most support at the polls to be president. The last example was the 2023 elections: the PP won then with 137 deputies, but PP and Vox remained at 170, below the 176 of the absolute majority. Four months later, Sánchez obtained 179 votes in his investiture by gathering the PSOE, Sumar, ERC, Junts, EH Bildu, PNV, BNG, and Coalición Canaria.
The problem for the PSOE is that the arithmetic that allowed that operation has changed. The average of polls from DatosRTVE now places PP and Vox at 202 seats, while the forces that participated in Sánchez's investiture in 2023 would sum around 145. The distance between both photographs is 57 deputies.
Therefore, more than repeating exactly the electoral result of 2023, the PSOE would need to rebuild the parliamentary conditions that made that investiture possible: that PP and Vox do not reach the absolute majority on their own and that the set of forces willing to support or facilitate a Sánchez Government has enough representation to make it viable.
The problem for Sánchez is in the 152 seats contributed by PSOE and Sumar
In the investiture of 2023, PSOE and Sumar contributed 152 of the 179 favorable votes: 121 socialist deputies and 31 from Sumar. The current average from DatosRTVE reduces that representation to 117: 104 deputies for the PSOE, ten for Sumar, and three for Podemos. That is 35 seats fewer than those held by PSOE and Sumar after the 2023 elections.
This decline is more significant for a potential investiture than the mere comparison between voting percentages. The PSOE can maintain several of the territorial parties that were already decisive in 2023 as interlocutors, but it needs to enter the subsequent negotiation with a sufficient parliamentary base.
The photograph of the territorial partners does not explain the decline of the bloc by itself. ERC, Junts, EH Bildu, PNV, BNG, and Coalición Canaria summed 27 deputies in 2023 and appear with 28 in the current average: eight, four, seven, six, two, and one, respectively.
That is to say, the joint representation of those six forces barely changes. The loss of weight is concentrated mainly in the PSOE and in the space to its left.
The PSOE would have to recover seats where it lost them
The loss of representation also has a translation in votes. The PSOE obtained 31.7% of the votes in 2023 and the current average places it at 26.3%. Sigma Dos puts it at 25.6% and 40dB at 27.4%.
The data from 40dB also shows that the PSOE retains 68.4% of its voters from 2023. Among those who then voted socialist, 5.4% now lean towards the PP and 4.8% towards Vox. 5.3% of those who abstained in 2023 currently declare an intention to vote for the PSOE.
The question, therefore, is not simply about mobilizing those who did not vote three years ago. The PSOE also needs to recover part of the voters who have changed their option and retain those who remain in its space. And those votes only translate into parliamentary recovery if they manage to produce seats in the constituencies where they are contested.
The electoral system thus adds a second variable to the national arithmetic. The 350 deputies are not distributed in a single constituency: each province functions as a different competition and the limited number of seats means that part of the vote may not translate into representation.
Rebuilding the block of 23J involves three movements
To reproduce an investiture like that of 2023, the PSOE would have to face three consecutive parliamentary problems. The first is to prevent the PP and Vox from reaching 176 deputies. The second, to recover a substantial part of the representation lost by the PSOE and its left. And the third, to find again a combination of supports and abstentions among the forces that allowed the previous investiture.
The territorial parties maintain, at least in the current average, a joint weight very similar to that of 2023. This makes the evolution of the PSOE and its immediate political space one of the central variables of the arithmetic of the next Congress.
The key, therefore, is not solely in whether Sánchez is ahead of or behind the PP. It is in whether the result of 29-N produces a Congress in which the PP and Vox cannot resolve the investiture by themselves and in which the PSOE retains enough representation to build a majority with other forces.
That was the mechanism that allowed Sánchez to govern in 2023 despite not winning those elections. The current average of polls starts from a very different configuration and leaves the PSOE facing the need to rebuild, with a smaller starting representation, a parliamentary majority that then reached 179 votes.