The debate about a possible real estate bubble has reopened the focus on the analyses of CaixaBank, although the entity's warnings do not point to that diagnosis, but rather to structural tensions in the housing market. According to CaixaBank Research, the big problem is the imbalance between supply and demand, with an accumulated deficit of more than 730,000 homes since 2021, a gap that could exceed 900,000 in the coming years if it is not corrected.
This is the central axis of the messages launched by the entity: concern about market risks, but linked to supply shortages, access to housing, and the economic impact that the problem may have if it becomes chronic. CaixaBank has even warned that this imbalance can become an "economic bottleneck" if no action is taken.
In that diagnosis, the CEO, Gonzalo Gortázar, has insisted that the market presents tensions, but has defended that the problem is access to housing and not a repetition of the 2008 scenario. At the same time, he has called for more available land, legal certainty, and collaboration between administrations to increase supply.
Supply deficit and price pressure
One of the most repeated messages by CaixaBank is that the root of the problem lies in the fact that more households are created than homes are built. According to the entity's analyses, that gap explains a large part of the pressure on prices and the deterioration of access to housing.
The entity has also defended that the problem requires attracting private investment with stable regulatory frameworks and accelerating urban planning decisions, especially regarding land. In Gortázar's words, "we need collaboration between the different public administrations," an idea reiterated in his latest interventions.
CaixaBank has also warned that the evolution of interest rates and energy costs may add pressure. In various statements, Gortázar has pointed out that the geopolitical context may strain long-term rates and make mortgage financing more expensive.
More than talking about a bubble, the entity's focus is on the risks derived from these imbalances. Among them, the loss of profitability in promotions, the difficulty of access for households and young people and the macroeconomic impact that the lack of housing can have.
Furthermore, CaixaBank Research has linked part of these risks to international uncertainty. The rise in energy and its effect on inflation and rates appears in its analyses as one of the factors that could affect both financing and the sector's evolution.
In parallel, the entity has also sent messages of caution. Gortázar has advocated caution regarding extreme scenarios and has insisted that the challenge lies in correcting the structural imbalances of the market.
What the entity proposes
The recipe that both CaixaBank and its studies service repeat involves increasing the housing supply. More land, regulatory stability, public-private collaboration, and long-term decisions appear as the four central pillars of their proposals.
The underlying message is that the risk is not so much in a bubble in the classic sense as in allowing a structural problem to grow that, according to the entity, already has social consequences and may also have economic ones if not corrected. That is, so far, the main warning issued by CaixaBank on housing.