The Minister of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration, Elma Saiz, has stressed this Monday that the average gross disbursement on pensions will be around 14% of GDP between 2022 and 2050, according to projections from the Integrated Model of Social Security Pension Expenditure (INTegraSS). This is a percentage she considers "manageable" and which is below the calculations of other organizations.
Saiz offered these figures during her appearance before the Monitoring and Evaluation Commission of the Toledo Pact agreements, where she went to detail the pension expenditure forecasts included in the first report of the Integrated Model for Long-Term Pension Expenditure Projection (INTegraSS), corresponding to 2025.
In her presentation, the minister indicated that the document anticipates a rise in pension expenditure to 15.3% of GDP around 2050, coinciding with the retirement of the 'baby boom' generation. From that peak, the weight of expenditure on the economy would gradually moderate to stand at 14.2% of GDP in 2070.
As she emphasized, the average expenditure of 14% estimated for the period 2022-2050 is "significantly lower" than that calculated by the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF), which places it at 14.6%, as well as lower than that projected by the working group on aging of the European Commission.
The head of Social Security argued that these forecasts show that the pension reform is meeting the objectives set in both the expenditure and revenue chapters, and maintained that the projected increase is compatible with the measures implemented to strengthen the system's financing and with the positive evolution of the labor market.
Saiz also recalled that the latest AIReF report forecasts that net pension expenditure will stand at an average of 13% of GDP between 2022 and 2050, two tenths below the previous estimate and below the threshold of 13.3% set in the reform's closing clause. In her opinion, this data confirms that it is not necessary to activate additional adjustments to ensure the financial sustainability of the system.
During her speech, the minister highlighted the degree of compliance with the Toledo Pact recommendations approved in 2020 and argued that Spain has moved in terms of pensions "from uncertainty to predictability".
Among the most relevant advances, she has mentioned the revaluation of pensions with the CPI, the separation of funding sources, the recovery of the Reserve Fund, and the reinforcement of income through the increase in maximum contribution bases, the Intergenerational Equity Mechanism (MEI), and the solidarity contribution.
Saiz has also focused on improving employment as one of the pillars of the system's sustainability. At this point, she has highlighted that in May, Spain reached a historic maximum of more than 22.3 million Social Security affiliates and that the ratio between contributors and pensioners is at one of the most favorable levels in recent years.
Almost 11,000 million collected through the MEI
In relation to the MEI, Saiz has estimated the accumulated collection from this additional surcharge on payroll, in effect since 2023 with the aim of guaranteeing the payment of future pensions, at 10,976 million euros.
The head of Social Security has specified that by the end of 2025, the mechanism had contributed 10,976 million euros, and has advocated for the MEI as a tool that "strengthens the system's response margin" based on a principle of "solidarity" with future generations.
"That figure not only has an accounting value, it has a political and institutional value because it shows that Spain has chosen to prepare itself, not to face the demographic challenge passively," she pointed out.
In the same vein, Elma Saiz has indicated that the forecast for 2026 is that the MEI will collect 5,298 million euros this year, which would represent a 20% increase compared to 2025.
At the same time, the minister has highlighted that the solidarity contribution, designed to tax the part of the salary that exceeds the maximum contribution base, will contribute 567 million euros this year, 42% more than in the previous year.