Only once, in the first elections of Castilla y León, those of 1983, the PSOE managed to take the Presidency. Since then, 10 other elections have been held, and, in all of them, the polls have resulted in a Government of the Popular Party (PP). Only in 2019, the socialists achieved more votes than the popular ones, but their agreement with Ciudadanos prevented them from leading the Executive.
That is to say, 39 consecutive years (since the 1987 elections) with governments of the Popular Party. Almost a tradition that, according to the sociologists and political scientists consulted by Demócrata, draws from sociological, demographic and, obviously, also ideological reasons.
Next March 15, the Castilian-Leonese will return to the polls and fulfill what is expected. The PP will be the most voted party (although with Vox approaching) and the PSOE will remain the second force (but with the far-right formation increasingly close). The unknown is whether the socialists will manage to sustain the fall or if it will be abrupt like the one they have suffered in Aragon.
Aging and rural environment
Two of the experts consulted by this outlet agree on the importance that has (when it comes to being prone to voting for the right) the fact that Castilla y León is a very aged Community, and with great representation of the rural environment.
For Álvaro Sánchez, researcher at the Center for Political and Constitutional Studies (CEPC), there is “a synergy between demands and political supply, that is, there is consonance in what citizens demand and what the PP offers”. The vast majority of the population of Castilla y León, he adds, “is aging and lives in rural areas, and the PP always captures more votes from rural areas than from urban ones, because it is capable of channeling very well the demands of the rural world, and of making policy in defense of traditional values”.
In this Community, “the PP has been a more moderate party, that has known how to adapt to the environment. Beyond national logics, in Castilla y León it has never stood out for abrupt, disruptive or deeply transformative political allusions”.
Although it is a multifactorial phenomenon, comments the sociologist and political scientist Ángel Nieto, “the demographic aspect affects directly and crucially”. Nieto draws a parallel with two other very aged Communities, such as Galicia and Asturias (where PP and PSOE, respectively, have governed very habitually), to argue that older people have a high “aversion to risk” and, therefore, it is not common for them to change their vote.
In the elderly population there is also a very low percentage of abstention and there is a clear “partisan identity: when most of the voters went to the first elections, the parties that existed were the PSOE and Alianza Popular (predecessor formation of the PP)”, he highlights.
Historically conservative
The sociologist and political scientist gives the reasons why the vote moves so little in the most aged communities, but the question is: what is the reason that in Castilla y León it favors the PP and, for example, in Asturias the PSOE? Nieto's answer is that, “in the first elections, those of 1983, the PSOE was in its honeymoon, and came from the famous 202 seats in the 82 general elections, but, historically, the Castilian-Leonese electorate has been conservative”.
Sociologist José Antonio Gómez Yáñez concurs with this opinion: “Castilla y León is part of conservative Spain. It is a region that traditionally had a high rate of religious practice (although it is now decreasing). And it has very conservative social sectors, with a high presence of agrarian property, which has always leaned towards the center-right.”
The PSOE
Inquiring into what has been stated by the experts, it seems very difficult to foresee (in the medium or long term) a socialist government in Castilla y León. Álvaro Sánchez is clear about it: “The PSOE cannot pretend to win this Community from the left, that is impossible. It is won from the center. And, no matter how many moderate candidates you put forward like Luis Tudanca (candidate in 2015, 2019 and 2022) or Carlos Martínez (2026), if at a national level there is a narrative that the PSOE is communist or Bolivarian, they have it impossible.”
Also Gómez Yáñez gives very few options to the left, and links it with that slight propensity for change in some territories: “The same thing happens in Castilla-La Mancha, but in reverse, there the one who has coined the Administration and has generated a regional discourse is the PSOE”.
Vox
Castilla y León is an aging and conservative, but moderate population, so, where does the meteoric rise of Vox come from, which everything indicates will continue in the Castilla y León elections of 2026? The CEPC researcher explains that “the traditional PP voter is not only conservative in values, but also in their way of life, so it is unlikely that many will switch to Vox”.
Its fishing ground for votes, he maintains, “must be sought among young people, normally with university studies, discontented with the political situation, and it is a vote that comes more from urban areas than from rural ones, for a pure demographic reason”.
Sánchez introduces a phenomenon closely linked to all the above: depopulation. “Research in Political Science shows that, the greater the depopulation in municipalities, the more votes go to the right, and the PP is the one that best captures those traditionalist discourses, in defense of livestock farming, etcetera.”
However, he/she points out, “in the towns where the risk of depopulation is extreme, it is Vox who capitalizes on that discontent.”