Marc Márquez has in Portugal a new opportunity to settle the MotoGP World Championship. His advantage over Jorge Martín is 60 points and 74 remain to be distributed between the last two races of the season.
The first option will come in Saturday’s sprint. Márquez needs to score at least two more points than Martín to leave the title resolved in front of his main pursuer, according to the combinations published by MotoGP. The championship also keeps Marco Bezzecchi among the mathematical contenders, 74 points behind the leader.
What Márquez needs to be champion on Saturday
After Portugal’s sprint, 62 points will be available: 25 from Sunday’s race and 37 from the last weekend.
If Márquez extends his advantage over Martín by two points, he will reach precisely those 62. The tiebreaker favors him because of his seven Grand Prix victories, compared to one by Martín.
The account can be expressed with concrete examples:
| Márquez’s result | Martín’s result | Post-match difference | Consequence |
|---|---|---|---|
| First: 12 points | Second: 9 points | 63 points | Márquez, champion |
| Second: 9 points | Third: 7 points | 62 points | Márquez, champion due to the favorable tiebreak |
| Third: 7 points | Fourth: 6 points | 61 points | The title remains open |
| Second: 9 points | First: 12 points | 57 points | The title remains open |
Calculations based on the 60-point difference and the sprint points system. These are examples, not all possible combinations.
The Sunday account: to go into it with 37 points over Martín
If the championship remains open after the sprint, the Sunday calculation will depend on what happened on Saturday. Against Martín, Márquez needs to finish the weekend with an advantage of at least 37 points.
With that difference, Martín could only match it by winning everything that remains in Valencia. The tiebreak criterion would prevent him from surpassing it.
On the contrary, Martín needs to cut at least 24 points from him over the entire Portuguese weekend. That would reduce the distance from the current 60 to a maximum of 36 and keep options for the last event.
Why Bezzecchi also has to be looked at
The account with Martín must not hide the third contender. MotoGP keeps Bezzecchi in the mathematical fight, even though his disadvantage coincides with the 74 points that remain to be distributed.
From that situation it is deduced that the Italian needs all the remaining points and that Márquez does not add any. A point from the Spanish in Portugal, or that Bezzecchi lets slip some available point, would end that possibility.
Therefore, to clinch the title on Sunday it is necessary to check the two conditions: the distance with respect to Martín and the mathematical elimination of Bezzecchi.
A season that at one point had 102 points of disadvantage
Márquez has not built his current position from a continuous lead. The official review of the championship recalls that he was at one point 102 points behind after the first part of the season, marked by injuries and absences.
His recovery included six victories in nine grand prix. In Qatar he won the sprint and finished second on Sunday, results that widened his margin over Martín to 60 points.
Where the next opportunity will take place
The next event will be held at the Autódromo Internacional do Algarve, in Portimão. The circuit is 4.59 kilometers long and has 15 turns, nine to the right and six to the left.
Its profile combines strong changes in elevation with a main straight of 970 meters. There the first 37 points of the 74 that remain will be distributed to decide the championship.