Germany celebrates this Sunday, September 20, two regional elections with the capacity to increase political pressure on Friedrich Merz. Berlin decides the composition of its regional Parliament, while Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania votes on a day marked by the confrontation between the Social Democrats and Alternative for Germany, AfD.
These are not federal elections: their results do not directly elect the chancellor nor replace the Bundestag. Their national importance lies in the strength they can give to the different parties and in the difficulties of building regional governments.
Berlin: who wins and who can govern
The first question in the capital is whether The Left, with Elif Eralp as a candidate, confirms the advantage given by the latest polls consulted. The second is what alliances allow for a parliamentary majority to be gathered. These are distinct questions: finishing in first place does not guarantee leading the next Executive.
The poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF published on September 17 places The Left at 22%, the CDU at 20%, AfD at 18%, the Greens at 15%, and the SPD at 12%. The one from INSA published on the 18th reduces support for The Left to 21% and keeps the CDU at 20%, according to the compilation by Wahlrecht.
Among the main candidates are also Stefan Evers for the CDU, Steffen Krach for the SPD, Werner Graf for the Greens, and Kristin Brinker for AfD, as reported by RBB24.
The electoral threshold can change the majorities
In Berlin, it is especially important to follow the candidacies close to 5%. BSW appears with 4% in the ZDF poll and 5% in the INSA poll. This difference can be relevant for the final distribution of seats, subject to the applicable electoral rules.
It is not enough to simply add percentages from a poll to conclude a government. The votes ultimately obtained, their translation into seats, and the willingness of the parties to negotiate a coalition influence.
Mecklenburg: Schwesig against the advance of AfD
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the focus is on whether Manuela Schwesig can keep the SPD ahead of AfD. Forschungsgruppe Wahlen places the Social Democrats at 37% and AfD at 36%, while the INSA poll published on September 16 reverses the order: AfD obtains 37% and the SPD 35%.
The series of surveys from Wahlrecht shows a race whose winner cannot be taken for granted. The result of the CDU is also of interest, which appears with 6% in the ZDF study, close to the general electoral threshold of 5%.
| Party | Berlin | Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania |
|---|---|---|
| The Left | 22% | 9% |
| CDU | 20% | 6% |
| AfD | 18% | 36% |
| The Greens | 15% | 5% |
| SPD | 12% | 37% |
| BSW | 4% | 4% |
| Others | 9% | 3% |
Source: Wahlrecht. These are estimates of voting intention, not electoral results. Studies from the same institute and date are compared; there are surveys from other institutes with different figures.
What consequences could it have for Merz
The results may intensify the debate about Merz's leadership, the territorial strength of the CDU, and the response of traditional parties to the advance of AfD, according to Reuters' preview.
In Berlin, it matters who can add up. In Mecklenburg, moreover, who wins the struggle between SPD and AfD. That combination will determine the political scope of the day beyond the two states.