Sweden goes to the polls with an election that just a month ago seemed on track and that this Sunday could be resolved by a single deputy.
The polling stations open at 08:00 and will close at 20:00, exactly the same time as in mainland Spain. At that moment, the counting of the 349 seats in the Riksdag will begin. The majority is at 175.
The opposition led by social democrat Magdalena Andersson continues slightly ahead, but the huge advantage it had during the summer has evaporated.
Reuters places the latest projections for the opposition bloc between 175 and 180 deputies and the right-wing bloc between 169 and 174. The most extreme snapshot came on Friday with Ipsos: 49.3% versus 49% and a translation in seats of 175 to 174.
It is hard to imagine a more open election.
This is how the eight parties arrive
An average of seven institutes updated on September 12 places the social democrats as the leading force and keeps the Sweden Democrats ahead of Kristersson's Moderates. The big news of the last week is that the Liberals have regained ground and are once again appearing above the decisive threshold of 4%.
| Party | Average of polls | Result 2022 |
|---|---|---|
| Social Democrats (S) | 27.8% | 30.33% |
| Sweden Democrats (SD) | 19.0% | 20.54% |
| Moderates (M) | 17.2% | 19.10% |
| Center Party (C) | 7.8% | 6.71% |
| Left Party (V) | 7.8% | 6.75% |
| Greens (MP) | 7.1% | 5.08% |
| Christian Democrats (KD) | 6.3% | 5.34% |
| Liberals (L) | 5.0% | 4.61% |
The percentages for 2022 come from the definitive result of the Swedish Electoral Authority. The current average is an aggregation of the latest polls from Demoskop, Indikator, Infostat, Ipsos, Novus, Sentio, and Verian, not an electoral prediction.
The big question: if the far-right finally enters the Government
The Sweden Democrats already have power.
Since 2022, they have been supporting Ulf Kristersson's Government in parliament and have conditioned a good part of its migration, criminal, and cultural policy.
Kristersson has explicitly opened the door for Jimmie Åkesson's party to be part of the next Executive if the bloc wins. It would be the first time the Sweden Democrats occupy ministries since their foundation.
A few years ago, the rest of the major Swedish parties avoided any cooperation with a formation that has its origins in far-right and neo-Nazi environments from the eighties.
In 2022, it already became the second national force with 20.54% and 73 deputies.
Now it does not need to grow to enormously increase its power.
It is enough for him that his bloc wins.
Kristersson can win the Government and come in third
The polls currently place the Sweden Democrats ahead of the Prime Minister's own Moderate Party.
Demoskop placed SD at 19.5% on Friday and M at 18.1%. Ipsos gave 18.8% to SD and 18.3% to the Moderates.
Therefore, Kristersson could retain the leadership of the Government while being the leader of the third party in Sweden.
The bloc's agreement still presents him as a candidate for Prime Minister, but a wide margin in favor of Åkesson would extraordinarily increase SD's negotiating power over ministries and the program.
This evening, two results will need to be looked at simultaneously.
- Who wins between blocs.
- And who wins within the right.
The party that can decide all of Sweden has around 5%
They are not Social Democrats, Moderates, or Sweden Democrats. They are the Liberals.
The Swedish electoral system establishes that a party needs at least 4% nationally to participate in the distribution of seats, except for the exception of reaching 12% in a constituency to compete for the fixed seats in that area.
For a good part of the legislature, the Liberals remained below 4%. Just a few weeks ago, they seemed doomed to exit Parliament. And then the comeback began.
Novus placed them at 5.8% on Wednesday. Demoskop left them at 4.7% on Friday and Ipsos at 5%.
If they maintain that, the right retains all its components.
If they fall below 4%, a significant portion of the bloc's votes would remain without national representation and the distribution of seats could clearly tilt towards Andersson.
This evening, every tenth of the Liberals around 4% matters as much as the result of the major parties.
Criminal gangs have marked four years of Government
Organized crime has been one of the major issues of the legislature.
The most recent police diagnosis identifies approximately 17,500 people as active in criminal networks and another 50,000 with links to them. In total, about 67,500 people. The Police themselves warn that methodological changes prevent interpreting the increase compared to previous years as an equivalent growth of the gangs.
The Government has toughened penalties, expanded police powers, and adopted measures that a decade ago would have been extraordinary in Sweden.
And there is a fact that the right claims.
Shooting incidents have fallen sharply.
Between January and August 2026, there were 53, compared to 114 in the same period of 2025. The explosions also decreased from 139 to 75.
The Police avoid attributing all that decrease to a single policy, but acknowledge that their new tools, arrests in Sweden and abroad, and the weakening of certain groups have contributed.
Immigration: the other turn of Sweden
The transformation has also been migratory.
The Kristersson Government has tightened the conditions for residence, eliminated certain pathways to permanent residence, and implemented citizenship tests.
Since January, it even offers up to 350,000 Swedish crowns, approximately 37,000 dollars, to certain non-EU immigrants who decide to voluntarily return to their country.
Only 171 people had accepted by early September.
The Social Democrats have criticized parts of that program, but they also do not promise to return to the Swedish migration model prior to 2015.
That is one of the most evident ideological victories of the Sweden Democrats: even a victory for the left does not necessarily imply undoing the migration tightening.
Magdalena Andersson can win and have a problem the next day
The left has another dilemma.
The polls can give her 175 deputies. That does not mean there is already a Government prepared.
The bloc includes Social Democrats, Greens, Left Party, and Center Party.
But Center refuses to participate in a Government that includes the Left, while the Left demands a much greater influence and has expressed its willingness to be part of the Executive.
Andersson can win the elections and wake up on Monday having to build a majority among parties that are arithmetically needed and politically rejected.
Sweden does not directly elect its prime minister
There is another important detail to interpret the results. The Swedes elect 349 deputies. Then the Government is decided.
Sweden uses a system of negative parliamentarism: a candidate can be elected prime minister as long as they do not have 175 deputies or more voting expressly against them. They do not need to obtain 175 yes votes.
This greatly expands the possibilities of abstention agreements.
And it means that the bloc with the most seats does not necessarily automatically produce a coalition Government among all its members.
The economy worries, but does not separate as much as the Government
Cost of living, healthcare, education, taxes, and energy have occupied a large part of the campaign. In foreign policy, the distances are much smaller.
The two major blocs support Ukraine, Swedish rearmament, and integration into NATO.
The election has therefore largely become a question of how to govern Sweden internally.
More welfare state and redistribution with Andersson.
More continuity in security, immigration, and tax cuts with Kristersson.
And, above all, a question that would have seemed unthinkable a decade ago: whether the Swedish Democrats should hold ministries.
The last figure to remember: 175
Everything will end up revolving around that number.
349 deputies.
175 to have an absolute majority.
Ipsos arrives at the election day with a projection of 175-174 for Andersson.
In 2022, Kristersson's bloc also ended with a minimal advantage and the result was not fully settled the same night.