More than eight million Swedish citizens are called to the polls this Sunday to elect Parliament, municipal governments, and regional authorities, in elections marked by the wear of the current center-right bloc in power and by the absence of a clearly articulated opposition alternative, in a scenario of strong political fragmentation and very uncertain governability.
The Prime Minister, Ulf Kristersson, leader of the conservative Moderate Party, faces these elections with his popularity at a low and a governing coalition subjected to strong internal tensions. His minority government, formed by Moderates, the Liberal Party, and Christian Democrats, has depended throughout the legislature on the external support of the Sweden Democrats (SD), the far-right formation led by Jimmie Akesson.
By virtue of the so-called Tido Agreement, reached after the 2022 elections, the far-right renounced entering the cabinet despite surpassing the Moderates in votes, and facilitated Kristersson's investiture in exchange for the Government assuming a large part of its program on immigration, asylum, and border control.
Now, however, Akesson's party warns that it will not support the Executive again if the far-right does not enter the cabinet with its own ministries, and directly points to key portfolios such as Justice and Immigration to be able to manage firsthand the budget allocations that support its political priorities.
To this pressure is added the delicate situation of the Liberal Party, which according to the latest Novus polls barely manages to exceed the 4% threshold necessary to maintain representation in the Riksdag. A possible liberal setback would seriously compromise the continuity of Kristersson's current government.
DIFFERENCES IN SECURITY AND IMMIGRATION
During the campaign, the head of the Executive has focused much of his message on security, claiming the results of his policy against organized crime. "Since we entered the Government in 2022, gang-related fatal violence has fallen by 75%. Shootings have decreased by 80%. At the same time, twice as many gang criminals are being arrested abroad," Kristersson has emphasized on social media.
Despite this, security remains at the center of the debate following the attack at a school in Fagersta, where a teenager died and two other people were injured. The Government reacted by announcing a specific commission to prevent violence in educational institutions and, in addition, in June a reform of the gun legislation came into effect that toughens penalties for illegal trafficking.
Democrats of Sweden, for their part, demand even more severe measures than those defended by the Moderates, with a radical tightening of the Penal Code, a "massive" deployment of agents on the streets, the withdrawal of citizenship from members of armed gangs, and even allowing minors under 13 years old to serve longer sentences for serious crimes.
These discrepancies became visible when the far-right brought to Parliament the proposal to lower the age of criminal responsibility, generating clashes with the more moderate partners and the rejection of a good part of the judiciary. After intense negotiations, the coalition ended up agreeing to reduce the criminal age from 15 to 14 years, keeping those under 13 out of the change.
Immigration constitutes another constant source of friction. While the Moderates advocate for regulated immigration, with greater demands to access asylum and public aid but without closing the door to skilled labor, Democrats of Sweden demand "zero asylum" and to almost completely restrict work permits, prioritizing "return and repatriation incentive" programs.
SOCIAL DEMOCRATS LEAD POLLS BUT WITH A COMPLEX SCENARIO
In this context of internal struggle on the right, the Social Democrats of former Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson lead the polls, although with a diminishing advantage and a very tight parliamentary balance between blocks, which complicates their access to Rosenbad, the headquarters of the Swedish Prime Minister.
Andersson has avoided presenting a closed opposition block, aware of the deep differences between her potential allies: the liberal Center Party and the Left Party. The Center Party flatly rejects fiscal and economic concessions to the Left, while this force demands ministerial portfolios in exchange for supporting a possible investiture in the Riksdag.
The Green Party, which already governed in coalition with the Social Democrats between 2014 and 2021, would be numerically essential if Andersson were to achieve a sufficient majority to govern. However, its presence is problematic for the Center Party, which opposes environmental tax increases that affect the rural and industrial sectors.
"As things stand, I will have to cooperate with several parties. It will be difficult to form a government without the participation of the Center Party in one way or another(...) No party will obtain an absolute majority. Everyone will have to give in. After the elections, the Left Party will decide whether it wants to be a constructive force for the formation of a new government or not," said the former Swedish Prime Minister between 2021 and 2022, in statements to 'Dagens Nyheter'.
PUBLIC HEALTH AND EDUCATION, IN FOCUS
Alongside the legislative elections, voters will elect their municipal and regional representatives on Sunday, responsible for two of the biggest concerns of the electorate: public health and the educational system.
The long waiting lists for surgeries and the saturation of emergency services have generated alarm in key regions such as Stockholm or Vastra Gotaland. The opposition accuses the center-right of cutting budgets that would jeopardize the hiring of nursing staff and criticizes the increase in private clinics funded with public money, while the governing bloc defends the model of free choice of healthcare center for patients.
In education, the Social Democrats propose setting a maximum number of students per teacher and limiting the model that allows private companies to manage schools with public money and make profits. The coalition partners in power, on the other hand, have emphasized strengthening security in schools and increasing resources allocated to the mental health of students.