General elections survey: the PSOE–Frente Amplio pact complicates the PP's majority in the Senate

The renewal of members of the Constitutional Court requires distinguishing between the parliamentary proposal of candidates and their appointment. The Congress and the Senate intervene through their own procedures, and the election requires a qualified majority: it is not enough for a candidacy to obtain more votes than the others. The consulted text allows detailing the procedure of the Congress, but does not provide the same detailed basis for the specific phases of the Senate.

1. What the Congress decides

Article 204 of the Congress Regulations assigns to the Plenary the proposal of the four members of the Constitutional Court corresponding to this Chamber. Therefore, the decisive agreement is not adopted by a committee or the Board: it must be voted on by all the deputies.

It is important to distinguish between presenting candidates and obtaining their election. The presentation opens the possibility of being elected; it does not imply an automatic designation, even if there is a prior agreement among parliamentary groups.

2. Presentation of candidacies

Each parliamentary group can propose up to four people. Article 204 allows groups to intervene for this purpose for a maximum of five minutes.

This regulation identifies who can promote the proposals and how many candidacies can be presented. However, the consulted article does not by itself develop all the preparatory procedures of presentation, verification of requirements, and possible examination of suitability. This prior work should not be confused with the competence of the Plenary to carry out the election.

3. Voting and required majority

The voting is done by ballots, in which each deputy can write up to four names. The four proposed persons who obtain the most votes are elected, provided that each one reaches at least three-fifths of the members of the Congress.

The requirement applies individually to each candidacy. It is not enough for a list or a global agreement to have sufficient support: each person must exceed the regulatory threshold. Also, the reference is the members of the Chamber, not only those present or participating in the vote.

4. What happens if the positions are not filled

The Regulations expressly establish how to proceed when the first vote does not fill the four positions:

• Successive votes are held to fill the remaining positions.
• The number of candidacies can be progressively reduced, starting from a number not exceeding twice the positions left to fill.
• In those votes, each ballot can include as many names as positions remain available.
• The Presidency can interrupt the votes for a reasonable period if circumstances advise it.
• Ties affecting the proposal are resolved by another vote among the tied candidacies.

Therefore, the required majority is not lowered merely because the vote is repeated. The provided mechanism consists of revoting, adjusting candidacies, and, when appropriate, allowing a pause to facilitate agreements.

5. Scope of this explanation

For a complete description of the renewal, the specific procedure of the Senate and the rules on requirements, term duration, and appointment must be added. Their development is not recorded in the consulted text, so it would not be rigorous to automatically transfer the Congress rules to the Senate or present their procedures before the Board and committees as verified.

The parliamentary regulation exposed can be consulted in the Congress Regulations, especially in its article 204.

The Senate is the Chamber of territorial representation of the Cortes Generales, according to article 69 of the Constitution. It shares with the Congress the drafting of laws, approval of the Budgets, and control of the Government, although its powers are not identical. The Congress usually has the final word, while the Senate has especially relevant own powers in territorial matters.

1. Participate in the drafting of laws

The Senate has legislative initiative: it can promote bills. In addition, it reviews the texts approved by the Congress and can approve them without changes, introduce amendments, or veto them, according to articles 87, 89, and 90.

The veto requires an absolute majority of the Senate, but does not definitively block the law: the Congress can override it by absolute majority or, after two months, by simple majority. It also decides whether to accept the Senate amendments. The Senate normally has two months to decide; the period is reduced to twenty calendar days in projects declared urgent.

2. Examine and approve the Budgets

Articles 66 and 134 assign to the Cortes the examination, amendment, and approval of the General State Budgets, whose drafting corresponds to the Government. The Senate debates the project and can modify or veto it, but the Congress retains the final decision through the legislative procedure rules.

3. Control the Government's action

The Senate oversees the Executive through questions, interpellations, requests for information, appearances, and investigative commissions. It can also approve motions to express its position or demand actions from the Government.

However, it does not grant or withdraw confidence from the president: the investiture, confidence question, and motion of censure correspond exclusively to the Congress. Article 108 establishes that the Government is politically accountable before that Chamber.

4. Exercise territorial functions

Its most notable territorial competence is the authorization provided in article 155. If an autonomous community fails to fulfill its constitutional or legal obligations, or acts seriously against the general interest of Spain, the Government must previously require its president. If the requirement is not attended to, it needs the approval by absolute majority of the Senate to adopt the necessary measures.

In addition, the Senate intervenes in the harmonization laws of article 150.3: appreciating their necessity requires an absolute majority of each Chamber.

5. Intervene in constitutional reform

In the ordinary procedure of article 167, the general rule is approval by three-fifths of each Chamber. If disagreement persists after a joint committee, the Congress can approve the reform by two-thirds, provided the Senate has supported it by absolute majority.

In the aggravated procedure of article 168, both Chambers must initially approve the revision by two-thirds. After dissolution and elections, the new Chambers ratify the decision and approve the text by two-thirds; finally, a mandatory referendum is held.

6. Other constitutional functions

• International treaties: participates in parliamentary authorizations of articles 93 and 94. In certain disagreements, article 74.2 provides for a mixed commission and, finally, a decision by the Congress by absolute majority.
• Constitutional bodies: participates in the election or proposal of their members when the Constitution establishes it.
• Constitutional justice: fifty senators can file an unconstitutionality appeal; this faculty does not correspond to the Senate as a Chamber.

In summary, the Senate combines legislative review, control, and territorial representation, but does not replace the Congress in the political responsibility of the Government nor in decisions about states of alarm, exception, and siege.

If you refer to a survey after the general elections of July 23, 2023, the reference result is that the PP obtained 120 directly elected senators, out of the 208 that were elected. It was the candidacy with the most seats and regained control of the Upper Chamber. Since your message does not include the date or the name of the survey, that is the electoral reference I can place, but not unequivocally link to the poll.

The result you should compare

The main figure is 120 elected seats. It refers exclusively to the representatives that citizens chose at the polls for the Senate, not the total members that the popular group ended up having. Official historical results can be consulted in the balance of the Central Electoral Board, while RTVE collects the result of that call in its Senate special.

To correctly interpret the data, it is advisable to separate three magnitudes:

• 120 elected senators: is the electoral result of the PP in the July 2023 general elections.
• 208 positions subject to direct election: is the total over which those seats were distributed. The 120 of the PP correspond approximately to 57.7% of the elective positions; that percentage is of seats, not votes.
• 143 senators in total: is the figure the PP reached when the legislature was constituted by adding the representatives appointed by the autonomous communities, according to RTVE information.

Why 120 and 143 are not contradictory figures

Both describe different realities. The 120 correspond to the result at the polls; the 143, to the total representation once the autonomous senators are incorporated. Therefore, it would not be correct to state that the PP obtained 143 seats in the general elections vote. It can be said that, after adding both representation paths, it had an absolute majority in the Upper Chamber.

This distinction is especially important when reading a survey: if the poll estimates directly elected senators, the appropriate comparison is with the 120 of 2023. Comparing that estimate with the total 143 would mix representatives coming from different mechanisms and could give a misleading impression of electoral evolution.

How to interpret votes to the Senate

Care must also be taken with vote percentages. The Senate election does not work like the Congress: candidates are voted for and each voter can support more than one. In most peninsular constituencies, four senators are elected and each person can mark up to three names. Therefore, a sum of votes to candidates does not equal the number of people who voted for a party.

Demócrata explains this particularity and its effect on the concentration of support in its analysis of the Senate mathematics. Without knowing the methodology used by the survey, the clearest is to use seats as a reference and not automatically equate their percentages with those of the Congress.

In summary: for a survey after July 23, 2023, the starting point for the PP is 120 elected senators; the 143 describe its total representation when the legislature was constituted, not its direct result at the polls.