The SocioMétrica poll published by El Español on November 1 placed it at 0.1% of the national vote and with no representation. That was also the estimate disseminated by the same institute on October 11.
Its candidacy, however, raises a question that is not fully resolved by a national percentage: how much support it can concentrate in the two provinces where it is running.
What the polls say about Democracia21
The two original checked publications from SocioMétrica agree in the diagnosis: 0.1% of the vote and no seats. They are measurements from the same company, so they should not be presented as a consensus among different polling firms.
The study from October 11 was carried out between days 10 and 11, coinciding with the party’s presentation. Its technical sheet includes 1,000 interviews via an online panel, although the body of the news describes them as telephone calls
| Publication | Polling firm and outlet | National vote | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 11, 2026 | SocioMétrica / El Español | 0,1% | 0 |
| November 1, 2026 | SocioMétrica / El Español | 0,1% | 0 |
Original publications verified as of November 7. The dates correspond to the publication of each study, not necessarily to the end of its fieldwork. They are estimates from the same polling firm, not election results nor an average of independent institutes.
Madrid and Barcelona: the two gateways into Congress
Democracia para el Siglo 21 has declared candidates in Madrid and Barcelona. Miriam González heads the Madrid list and David Andrés Díaz, the one from Barcelona, according to the list published in the BOE of November 3.
The two constituencies jointly distribute 70 deputies: 38 Madrid and 32 Barcelona. They are the provinces that elect the most representatives, according to the call-up decree.
The decision concentrates resources and limits the territory in which it needs to compete. Ciudadanos explained when announcing the coalition that both provinces offered greater possibilities of obtaining representation.
It also determines who could enter. A deputy obtained only in Barcelona would correspond to the lead candidate of that candidacy, not to González. For Democracia21 leader to reach Congress through its list, it needs the party to obtain representation in Madrid.
The decisive percentage is not national: the barrier is applied by province
Congress is elected through provincial constituencies. The votes obtained in Madrid and Barcelona are not added together into a common pool to buy a deputy: each candidacy competes in its own distribution.
Article 163 of the electoral law excludes lists from the distribution that do not reach 3% of the valid votes in the constituency. Then the D'Hondt system is applied among the admitted candidacies.
For that reason, the 0.1% national figure published by SocioMétrica cannot be compared directly with that 3%. The denominators are different: one measures support across the whole country and the other, across a province.
Nor would it be correct to say that Democracia21 needs to multiply its support by thirty. To calculate the real distance to the barrier, it would be necessary to know its specific estimate in Madrid and Barcelona.
The practical consequence is straightforward: a campaign can increase the party’s visibility across Spain without improving sufficiently its situation in the two constituencies where representation is at stake.
How many votes would Democracia21 need to secure a seat
There is no fixed number of votes that would make it possible to announce today how many it lacks. The number needed to reach 3% changes with the valid votes cast in each province.
A purely illustrative example helps to understand it. If in a constituency four million valid votes were counted, 3% would be equivalent to 120,000. If it were three million, it would be 90,000.
There is also a mathematical difference between the two provinces. With the 38 deputies that Madrid allocates, reaching 3% of valid votes is enough to ensure at least one seat under the D'Hondt allocation. With 32 deputies, Barcelona does not offer that same universal guarantee exactly at 3%: the outcome may also depend on the distribution of the rest of the vote.
This is a consequence of the number of seats and of the allocation system, not of a poll. The mathematical barrier that ensures a first deputy is to surpass a fraction equivalent to one divided by the number of seats plus one: approximately 2.56% in Madrid and 3.03% in Barcelona. The legal requirement of 3% continues to apply in both.
For Democracia21, therefore, the provincial figure that would truly change the diagnosis would be a sound estimate close to that entry zone.
Why a 0.1% does not allow measuring an exact possibility of surprise
An estimate this small must be read with particular caution. By itself, it does not provide an accurate measurement of the support for a new party in two provinces.
The published percentage also does not allow reconstructing how many respondents said they would vote for the party. The estimates incorporate weighting and other adjustments: it is not enough to multiply the percentage by the sample size to identify individual responses.
Not appearing in a poll also does not mean having zero votes
The tables that group small candidacies under "others" do not make it possible to know what percentage corresponds to each one. The absence of a dedicated row for Democracia21 is not equivalent to an estimate of 0%.
It is necessary to distinguish between an institute that expressly publishes zero seats and another that does not provide an individual breakdown. Only in the first case is there a parliamentary projection attributable to that party.
This difference prevents constructing a supposed average for Democracia21 by filling in the polls that do not mention it with zeros. The result would appear to offer a level of precision that the original studies do not provide.
The image that gave it 28 deputies was not a poll
Real uncertainty also does not turn unsupported projections into valid ones. Newtral verified an image circulated on social media that attributed 28 deputies to Democracia21 and explained that it was a fictional simulation.
The graphic itself included a warning about its invented nature. Its slate also presented a basic error: the seats of all the parties added up to 351, when the Congress has 350.
This content does not serve to evaluate the party’s electoral strength or to claim that the pollsters differ between zero and 28 MPs. An invented simulation is not the optimistic end of a polling range.
Ciudadanos provides an alliance, but its former votes do not transfer automatically
The agreement with Ciudadanos and UCIN incorporates organizations into the project led by González. The coalition announcement identifies its name as Democracia para el Siglo 21 and sets Madrid and Barcelona as constituencies of origin.
Miriam González wants to be the hinge: getting an MP is only the first requirement
On November 6, González defended on Las mañanas de RNE that "any kind of force can be decisive." She also expressed her intention to exert influence with a reduced representation and rejected facilitating both the continuity of Pedro Sánchez and the entry of Vox into the Government.
These are two different goals: to obtain representation and to be necessary for a majority. An MP may have negotiating capacity in a very tight Congress and little influence if there is an alternative that does not depend on them.
Therefore, the hinge condition is not deduced from getting a seat. It would depend on the full distribution, the combinations of support, and the agreements that the parties would be willing to accept.
González has announced that she will keep the project regardless of the result of 29N and that afterward she will prepare other calls, including municipal, regional, and European elections. The official campaign for these general elections will begin on November 13 and end on the 27th.