In the first minutes, the selective has moved between 19,854.90 and 19,890.10 points, after closing on Monday at 19,741.30 units, with an advance of 0.80%.
The index thus approaches the psychological barrier of 20,000 points, although the deterioration of semiconductor manufacturers increases the risk of volatility during the day.
The Ibex looks again at 20,000 points
The Spanish Stock Exchange has started the session with better performance than the main Asian markets. Its lower direct exposure to chip manufacturers allows the Ibex to withstand the technological collapse and lean on telecommunications, defense, banking, and some defensive stocks.
The immediate reference is in the area of 19,890 points, the maximum of the initial evolution. Surpassing it would leave the index just over a hundred points from 20,000, a barrier that may attract new purchases, but also provoke profit-taking.
For the small shareholder, the proximity of highs does not mean that the entire market rises uniformly. The session shows significant differences between companies benefiting from their corporate news and firms exposed to rates, investment, or technological correction.
Cellnex leads the gains with a rise of 1.55%
Cellnex has led the opening with an advance of 1.55%. The telecommunications infrastructure company thus prolongs the recovery initiated during the last sessions, favored by the moderation of debt yields and by expectations regarding possible strategic decisions.
Cellnex's business relies on recurring and long-term contracts, but its quotation is particularly sensitive to the cost of financing due to the debt accumulated during its international expansion.
For the retail investor, the advance is a favorable sign, although continuity will depend on the company continuing to reduce debt, increasing cash generation, and demonstrating that it can grow without resorting to new capital-intensive acquisitions.
Indra rises 1.28% and maintains defense momentum
Indra advances 1.28% and positions itself as the second most bullish stock in the selective. The company has announced a strategic collaboration agreement with BOLD Technology, while the market continues to reward its exposure to defense, security, air traffic, and strategic technology.
The structural increase in European military spending continues to support Indra even after the temporary pause in attacks between the United States and Iran.
For the small shareholder, the strength of the stock must be analyzed alongside its high volatility. Expectations of new contracts have already strongly boosted the quotation, so any disappointment in orders, margins, or industrial execution could provoke quick profit-taking.
Merlin presents results and raises its forecasts
Merlin Properties has reported total revenues of 308 million euros during the first half, an EBITDA of 229 million, an 11.7% increase, and an operating profit of 180 million, with an 8% growth. The socimi has also raised its annual operating profit forecast to 340 million.
The company is among the stocks that can benefit from a sustained decline in bond yields, as real estate companies are particularly sensitive to financing costs.
For the individual investor, the improvement in forecasts is more relevant than the past data: it indicates that management expects a more favorable business evolution during the second half of the fiscal year.
Acciona leads the losses
Acciona has started the session with a 0.74% drop, positioning itself as the weakest stock in the Ibex. ACS loses 0.37% and completes the group of main declines.
Both companies are developing projects that require large volumes of investment and financing. Uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's decision and the evolution of interest rates continues to condition the valuations of construction companies, concessionaires, and infrastructure firms.
For the retail shareholder, the cost of debt is almost as important as the project portfolio. More expensive financing can reduce the expected profitability of new investments, even if the operating business continues to grow.
Telefónica awaits its results after the advance of its Brazilian subsidiary
Telefónica faces the session awaiting to present its accounts this week. As a preview, Telefónica Brasil has reported a profit of 1.6 billion reais during the second quarter.
The Spanish operator continues to be closely followed by small shareholders due to its dividend and its historical presence in retail portfolios. Its evolution will depend on cash generation, debt reduction, and the performance of its main markets.
A fall in bond yields favors Telefónica because it reduces the expected refinancing cost and improves the relative attractiveness of its dividend. However, competition from low-cost operators continues to pressure the business in Spain.
The banking sector, watching CaixaBank and BBVA
The earnings season will keep banking at the center of the Ibex this week. CaixaBank will present its accounts this Wednesday and BBVA will do so on Thursday, after Santander, Bankinter, and Sabadell released their results in recent days.
The financial entities are facing a divided scenario. High rates support interest margins, but overly restrictive monetary policy reduces credit demand and increases the risk of default.
For the small shareholder, it will be important to check whether banks can maintain their profitability without solely relying on the level of rates. The evolution of commissions, deposits, credit, and buybacks will be decisive.
Grifols presents results this Tuesday
Grifols is another company that will concentrate market attention, as it plans to publish its results during this day.
The plasma-derived company continues to be conditioned by its debt and its ability to generate cash. The market will especially examine the evolution of margins, net debt, and forecasts for the entire year.
For the retail investor, rising sales will not be enough if the company does not demonstrate clear progress in debt reduction and cash flow.
Oil falls to 85 dollars and reduces inflationary pressure
Brent falls around 0.9%, to 85.06 dollars per barrel, while U.S. West Texas falls nearly 1%, to 81.82 dollars. The drop responds to the temporary pause in attacks between the United States and Iran and to expectations of diplomatic advances.
The moderation of crude reduces the fear of a new inflationary wave and benefits airlines, consumption, transport, and industry. It also takes away some of the support that Repsol had received when Brent approached 100 dollars.
For the small shareholder, oil will remain a decisive variable. A sustained drop favors IAG, Aena, Amadeus, and Inditex, while a new spike would support Repsol and increase pressure on rates.
Asia collapses due to fear of Chinese competition in chips
The main international threat comes from Asia. The South Korean Kospi has fallen by nearly 10.8%, the Japanese Nikkei by 3.8% and the Chinese CSI 300 by around 3%. Sales have concentrated on Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and other semiconductor manufacturers.
The market fears that China will advance faster than expected in lithography equipment manufacturing and reduce dependence on companies like ASML. The emergence of new Chinese competitors has led to a reassessment of the high valuations reached by the tech sector.
The Ibex has limited direct exposure to semiconductors, but a technological drop of this magnitude can reduce global risk appetite and ultimately affect banks, industrials, and cyclical companies.
Europe opens higher despite technological declines
The main European stock exchanges have started the day with gains. The German DAX rises by around 0.30%, the French CAC by 0.67% and the Euro Stoxx 50 by 0.37%.
The Stoxx 600 remains practically flat because gains in consumer, luxury, and automotive sectors offset the decline in the tech sector. Unilever, LVMH, and Mercedes-Benz stand out after reporting better-than-expected results.
Wall Street points to a negative opening
U.S. futures anticipate declines in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, while the Dow Jones remains close to equilibrium. The market continues to penalize chip manufacturers and awaits results from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon.
Investors want to see if the huge spending on artificial intelligence is generating sufficient revenues. Doubts about financing new data centers have increased after it was revealed that Nvidia is considering backing a hundreds of billions operation related to infrastructure for OpenAI.
The Federal Reserve begins a decisive meeting
The Federal Reserve begins this Tuesday a particularly uncertain meeting. Rates are in the range of 3.50% to 3.75% and the market does not expect an immediate change, although it maintains a significant probability of monetary tightening.
The drop in oil reduces inflationary pressure, but the strength of the U.S. economy and the evolution of tariffs keep doubts open.
In the debt market, the Spanish ten-year bond offers around 3.56%, while the U.S. is around 4.61%.
Spanish employment reaches a new record
The Active Population Survey of the second quarter shows a reduction in unemployment of 213,300 people and a historic maximum of 22.77 million employed. The unemployment rate stands at 9.87%.
A stronger labor market favors consumption, reduces the risk of defaults, and improves prospects for banks, commerce, and service companies. However, it can also maintain some pressure on wages and inflation.
What the small shareholder should watch today
The first reference of the Ibex is at 19,890 points, the maximum of the initial evolution. Surpassing that zone would allow the index to approach directly to 20,000 points.
The second key will be technology. If the declines in Asia strongly transfer to Wall Street, the Ibex could lose part of the gains despite its lower exposure to semiconductors.
Oil will also need to be monitored. The drop towards 85 dollars favors airlines, consumption, and industry, but a break in the truce between the United States and Iran could provoke a new turn.
Finally, corporate results will gain prominence. Grifols, CaixaBank, Telefónica, BBVA, Cellnex, and ArcelorMittal may generate relevant movements in the coming days.
The opening leaves a positive but cautious reading: the Ibex is once again nearing historic highs thanks to Cellnex, Indra, and the better European tone, although the Asian tech crash and the Fed meeting keep the possibility of a volatile session open.