The industrial prices increased by 9.2% year-on-year in July 2026, 2.2 points more than in June, when they had recorded an advance of 7.0%. Only during the last month, the prices of industrial products manufactured and sold in Spain increased by 3.0%, according to provisional data published this Tuesday by the National Institute of Statistics (INE).
The data is particularly relevant for anticipating possible inflationary pressures because the Industrial Price Index (IPRI) measures prices at the first step of commercialization, that is, at the factory gate. It does not incorporate subsequent transportation and marketing costs or VAT, allowing observation of how prices evolve before products reach the final consumer.
However, the 9.2% of the IPRI does not mean that supermarket prices will rise by that proportion. The breakdown of the indicator shows a very uneven evolution: while energy records a strong increase, consumer goods show a much more moderate year-on-year rise and even decrease compared to the previous month.
Energy drives industrial prices up by 20.8%
The main pressure on industrial prices comes from energy, which became 20.8% more expensive compared to July 2025. The increase is even more significant when observing only the evolution of the last month: energy prices rose by 9.1% compared to June.
The behavior contrasts with the rest of the major industrial categories. Intermediate goods recorded an annual increase of 6.8%, while capital goods became 2.3% more expensive. The latter remained unchanged compared to June, and intermediate goods decreased by 0.2% in monthly terms.
| Category | Monthly Variation | Annual Variation |
|---|---|---|
| General Index | +3.0% | +9.2% |
| Consumer Goods | -0.2% | +0.7% |
| Capital Goods | 0.0% | +2.3% |
| Intermediate Goods | -0.2% | +6.8% |
| Energy | +9.1% | +20.8% |
The result shows that the strong increase in the general index is heavily conditioned by energy. Therefore, there is no 9.2% increase distributed uniformly among all industrial products.
Consumer goods contain pressure for now
The category that offers a reference closest to products ultimately destined for households presents a considerably more moderate situation. The industrial prices of consumer goods increased by 0.7% year-on-year in July, far from the 9.2% of the general index.
Furthermore, regarding the immediately previous month, consumer goods lowered their prices by 0.2%. The monthly evolution is particularly significant compared to the 9.1% increase recorded simultaneously by energy.
The data does not allow us to conclude that supermarket products will decrease in price, because numerous factors intervene between industrial prices and final prices. But it also does not currently support the idea that the 9.2% recorded by the IPRI will automatically transfer to the shopping basket.
Can the increase eventually reach the supermarket?
The main transmission channel could be precisely in the costs borne by companies. A persistent increase in energy costs can affect different stages of the production chain, from manufacturing and preservation to transportation and distribution.
We will also need to monitor intermediate goods, whose prices are now 6.8% higher than a year ago. This category includes products that are subsequently incorporated into other industrial processes, so prolonged pressure on these costs may ultimately affect the manufacturing of final goods.
But the transfer is not immediate or necessarily complete. The evolution of final prices will also depend on factors such as company margins, competition, supply contracts, logistical costs, and the evolution of raw materials themselves. The IPRI should be interpreted as an indicator of prices at origin and not as a direct forecast of the CPI.
Inflation already rose to 3.6% in July
The publication of industrial prices comes after the CPI also showed an acceleration during July. The inflation stood at 3.6% year-on-year, four tenths above June, while core inflation increased by one tenth, to 3.0%.
In this case, the INE itself particularly pointed to transportation and housing. Transportation reached an annual rate of 6.2% mainly due to the behavior of fuels and lubricants, while housing recorded 5.7%, especially influenced by electricity.
In contrast, food and non-alcoholic beverages fell by 0.7% compared to June, mainly due to the decrease in the prices of fruits and nuts and of vegetables, legumes, and potatoes. That is to say, the strong energy component that now appears in industrial prices has not yet translated in July into a general monthly increase in the food that households buy.
The IPRI reaches 9.2% after strong fluctuations in 2026
The evolution of industrial prices during this year has been particularly irregular. The IPRI started January with a year-on-year rate of -2.8% and fell to -6.9% in February. In March it returned to positive territory with 3.1% and subsequently climbed to 8.6% in April and 10.5% in May.
In June the rate moderated to 7.0%, but the provisional data for July raises it again to 9.2%, one of the highest levels recorded so far in 2026. Exactly one year ago, in July 2025, the annual rate was just 0.4%.
The upcoming data will allow us to verify if the energy increase persists and begins to spread more intensely to other categories. For now, the IPRI sends a clear signal of pressure on industrial costs, but it does not allow us to affirm that a new widespread increase in the supermarket is imminent: against the 9.2% of the general index and the 20.8% of energy, consumer goods advance only 0.7% year-on-year and decline 0.2% compared to June.