The electoral map of future general elections would be much more fragmented than what a simple national vote estimate reflects. The projection by provinces of Sigma Dos for El Mundo shows where each party would be the leading force, where ties would occur, and to what extent Vox begins to directly contest the second territorial position against PSOE.
The photograph clearly leaves the PP ahead. Considering exclusively the distribution of seats that appears on the Sigma Dos map, the popular party would be the leading force with no possible tie in 24 of the 50 Spanish provinces.
PSOE, on the other hand, is only guaranteed the first position alone in two: Barcelona and Navarra. In other constituencies, it can end up first depending on the extreme of the range, but it is not assured.
The third movement of the map affects Vox. The party of Santiago Abascal does not win any province alone, but it already surpasses PSOE in two, ties it in ten, and has the possibility of reaching it in another seven. In total, the socialists are threatened by Vox in 19 provinces.
The 24 provinces where the PP would be a clear leading force
Sigma Dos places the PP ahead of any other party, with no tie in the published range, in 24 provinces.
They are A Coruña, Albacete, Alicante, Almería, Burgos, Cáceres, Cádiz, Córdoba, Huesca, Illes Balears, Las Palmas, León, Lugo, Madrid, Málaga, Murcia, Ourense, Palencia, Pontevedra, Salamanca, Segovia, Teruel, Zamora, and Zaragoza.
The map allows for a view of a particularly broad implantation of the PP in Galicia, Castilla y León, Aragón, Madrid, a good part of Andalucía, the Mediterranean coast, and the islands.
Madrid is the most compelling case in absolute terms. Sigma Dos attributes to the PP between 16 and 17 deputies, compared to eight from PSOE and eight from Vox.
Clear advantages also appear in large provinces like Alicante, Málaga, or Murcia.
Twelve provinces end directly in a tie for the first place
The map also leaves 12 provinces where two or more parties would obtain exactly the same number of seats at the top.
- In Álava, the most fragmented tie would occur: PSOE, EH Bildu, PP, and PNV would each obtain one deputy.
- PP and PSOE would tie in Badajoz, Cantabria, Castellón, Ciudad Real, Huelva, Jaén, Santa Cruz de Tenerife, and Soria.
- In Guadalajara and Cuenca, the tie would be three-way among PP, PSOE, and Vox, with one deputy for each party.
- In Toledo, a triple tie would occur again: PP, PSOE, and Vox would each obtain two deputies.
These ties are especially important because they show to what extent the last seat in each province can modify the national map.
Another nine provinces remain open due to the ranges
There are also nine provinces where the PP can end up first or share the top position depending on which end of the range ends up materializing.
They are Asturias, Ávila, Granada, La Rioja, Lleida, Sevilla, Tarragona, Valencia, and Valladolid.
Asturias, for example, places the PP at three deputies and the PSOE between two and three. The PP can win or tie.
In Granada, something similar happens: three deputies for the PP and between two and three for the PSOE.
In Valencia, the PP would obtain between five and six and the PSOE five, so the result fluctuates between a popular victory and a tie.
Sevilla is even more open: both PP and PSOE appear with a range of four to five seats.
In Lleida and Tarragona, the PSOE starts with a range of one to two deputies, which allows for a solo socialist victory or ties with other parties if it stays at one.
PSOE only has two guaranteed victories
The territorial weakness of the PSOE is especially noticeable when looking for provinces where Sánchez is guaranteed to surpass all his rivals. There are only two.
- In Barcelona, the socialists would obtain between 10 and 11 deputies. ERC would be at five, the PP at five, Vox between four and five, Sumar at three, and Junts and Aliança Catalana at two.
- In Navarra, the PSOE would achieve two deputies, compared to one from the PP, one from EH Bildu, and one from UPN.
These are the only two provinces on the map where the PSOE appears unequivocally as the first force alone.
That does not mean it cannot win in others. It has options to do so in Girona, Lleida, Tarragona, Bizkaia, and Sevilla, but the ranges do not allow for a clear victory to be assigned in advance.
Girona, Lleida, and Tarragona leave the Catalan fight open
Catalonia offers some of the most open distributions.
- In Girona, the PSOE has two seats and Aliança Catalana between one and two. The socialists can win alone or tie with AC.
- In Lleida, the PSOE fluctuates between one and two deputies, while ERC and Junts would each obtain one and the PP between zero and one. If the PSOE reaches two, it wins; if it stays at one, the tie can be multiple.
- In Tarragona, something similar happens. The PSOE appears between one and two seats and PP, Vox, ERC, and Aliança Catalana would each obtain one. Junts could get another.
Barcelona is the only Catalan province where there is no discussion about the winner: the PSOE maintains a very wide advantage.
EH Bildu and PNV can also lead provinces
PP and PSOE are not the only parties with the possibility of being the first provincial force.
In Gipuzkoa, EH Bildu would obtain between two and three deputies, compared to two from the PNV and between one and two from the PSOE. If Bildu reaches three, it would be the first force alone. If it stays at two, it could tie with the PNV.
In Bizkaia, the first position is directly open between PSOE and PNV. Both move between two and three deputies, while EH Bildu would obtain two.
The PNV, therefore, can also end up as the first force alone in Bizkaia if it obtains three deputies and the PSOE stays at two.
In Álava, there is no winner: PSOE, EH Bildu, PP, and PNV tie at one deputy.
Aliança Catalana can catch up to the PSOE in Girona, but not surpass it in the published range. ERC and Junts can also enter ties for the first position in Lleida or Tarragona if the PSOE stays at the lower end.
Vox already surpasses the PSOE in Murcia and Almería
The expansion of Vox is better appreciated when directly compared to the socialists.
There are two provinces where Abascal would already obtain more deputies than the PSOE.
- In Murcia, the PP would have five, Vox three, and the PSOE two.
- In Almería, the PP would get three, Vox two, and the PSOE one.
These are the only two provinces where Vox clearly surpasses the PSOE according to the map.
Vox ties with the PSOE in another ten provinces
The territorial threat is much broader than those two surpluses.
Vox obtains exactly the same deputies as the PSOE in ten provinces: Guadalajara, Cuenca, Toledo, Albacete, Cáceres, León, Burgos, Illes Balears, Málaga, and Madrid.
Madrid is probably the case with the greatest political impact: PP between 16 and 17, PSOE eight, and Vox another eight.
In Málaga, PSOE and Vox would tie at three.
In Balearic Islands, both would obtain two.
And in Guadalajara, Cuenca, and Toledo, Vox would not only match the PSOE but also the PP in the first position.
Vox can reach the PSOE in seven more provinces
The ranges leave another seven territories where Vox can still end up with the same number of seats as the socialists.
They are Salamanca, Ávila, Valladolid, La Rioja, Granada, Alicante, and Tarragona.
For example, in Alicante, the PSOE appears with three deputies and Vox between two and three. In Granada, the PSOE fluctuates between two and three and Vox between one and two.
In Tarragona, the PSOE may end up with one deputy, the same that Vox is already assigned.
Added to the two provinces where Vox surpasses the PSOE, the ten where they are already tied, and the seven where it can catch up, the threat reaches 19 constituencies.
Vox threatens the PSOE much more than the PP
The map also allows for another reading: the growth of Vox is territorially eroding the PSOE much more than the PP.
Vox does not surpass the PP in any province.
It only reaches the popular party in the lead in Guadalajara, Cuenca, and Toledo, where there are triple ties with the PSOE.
In Ávila, there is also a possible combination in the range that could leave the PP, PSOE, and Vox tied with one deputy.
Outside of those cases, the PP maintains a clear distance from Vox.
This makes the expansion of Abascal a particularly delicate problem for the PSOE: in numerous provinces, Vox is already directly competing with the socialists to be the second force, while Feijóo maintains the first position.
A map much bluer, but still full of last open seats
The Sigma Dos photograph does not allow for converting all provinces into closed victories because many estimates are expressed through ranges. There is an important caution: this is not a survey conducted in August.
The main fieldwork was carried out between July 6 and July 20, 2026. To develop the estimate of seats by constituency, Sigma Dos also used 30,400 interviews conducted between May 4 and July 21. This means that the effect of the latest current events, especially the migration crisis in Ceuta, has not yet been estimated.