Provincial power map | General elections survey: the PP would be the first force in 24, the PSOE in two and Vox threatens the socialists in 19, according to Sigma Dos

The provincial map of Sigma Dos for El Mundo outlines a strong territorial expansion of the PP: it would be the first force without depending on the ranges in 24 provinces and would tie for the lead in another 12. The PSOE only has guaranteed victory alone in Barcelona and Navarra, while Vox already surpasses the socialists in two provinces, ties them in another ten, and can catch up with them in seven more.

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The electoral map of future general elections would be much more fragmented than what a simple national vote estimate reflects. The projection by provinces of Sigma Dos for El Mundo shows where each party would be the leading force, where ties would occur, and to what extent Vox begins to directly contest the second territorial position against PSOE.

The photograph clearly leaves the PP ahead. Considering exclusively the distribution of seats that appears on the Sigma Dos map, the popular party would be the leading force with no possible tie in 24 of the 50 Spanish provinces.

PSOE, on the other hand, is only guaranteed the first position alone in two: Barcelona and Navarra. In other constituencies, it can end up first depending on the extreme of the range, but it is not assured.

The third movement of the map affects Vox. The party of Santiago Abascal does not win any province alone, but it already surpasses PSOE in two, ties it in ten, and has the possibility of reaching it in another seven. In total, the socialists are threatened by Vox in 19 provinces.

The 24 provinces where the PP would be a clear leading force

Sigma Dos places the PP ahead of any other party, with no tie in the published range, in 24 provinces.

They are A Coruña, Albacete, Alicante, Almería, Burgos, Cáceres, Cádiz, Córdoba, Huesca, Illes Balears, Las Palmas, León, Lugo, Madrid, Málaga, Murcia, Ourense, Palencia, Pontevedra, Salamanca, Segovia, Teruel, Zamora, and Zaragoza.

The map allows for a view of a particularly broad implantation of the PP in Galicia, Castilla y León, Aragón, Madrid, a good part of Andalucía, the Mediterranean coast, and the islands.

Madrid is the most compelling case in absolute terms. Sigma Dos attributes to the PP between 16 and 17 deputies, compared to eight from PSOE and eight from Vox.

Clear advantages also appear in large provinces like Alicante, Málaga, or Murcia.

Twelve provinces end directly in a tie for the first place

The map also leaves 12 provinces where two or more parties would obtain exactly the same number of seats at the top.

  • In Álava, the most fragmented tie would occur: PSOE, EH Bildu, PP, and PNV would each obtain one deputy.
  • PP and PSOE would tie in Badajoz, Cantabria, Castellón, Ciudad Real, Huelva, Jaén, Santa Cruz de Tenerife, and Soria.
  • In Guadalajara and Cuenca, the tie would be three-way among PP, PSOE, and Vox, with one deputy for each party.
  • In Toledo, a triple tie would occur again: PP, PSOE, and Vox would each obtain two deputies.

These ties are especially important because they show to what extent the last seat in each province can modify the national map.

Another nine provinces remain open due to the ranges

There are also nine provinces where the PP can end up first or share the top position depending on which end of the range ends up materializing.

They are Asturias, Ávila, Granada, La Rioja, Lleida, Sevilla, Tarragona, Valencia, and Valladolid.

Asturias, for example, places the PP at three deputies and the PSOE between two and three. The PP can win or tie.

In Granada, something similar happens: three deputies for the PP and between two and three for the PSOE.

In Valencia, the PP would obtain between five and six and the PSOE five, so the result fluctuates between a popular victory and a tie.

Sevilla is even more open: both PP and PSOE appear with a range of four to five seats.

In Lleida and Tarragona, the PSOE starts with a range of one to two deputies, which allows for a solo socialist victory or ties with other parties if it stays at one.

PSOE only has two guaranteed victories

The territorial weakness of the PSOE is especially noticeable when looking for provinces where Sánchez is guaranteed to surpass all his rivals. There are only two.

  • In Barcelona, the socialists would obtain between 10 and 11 deputies. ERC would be at five, the PP at five, Vox between four and five, Sumar at three, and Junts and Aliança Catalana at two.
  • In Navarra, the PSOE would achieve two deputies, compared to one from the PP, one from EH Bildu, and one from UPN.

These are the only two provinces on the map where the PSOE appears unequivocally as the first force alone.

That does not mean it cannot win in others. It has options to do so in Girona, Lleida, Tarragona, Bizkaia, and Sevilla, but the ranges do not allow for a clear victory to be assigned in advance.

Girona, Lleida, and Tarragona leave the Catalan fight open

Catalonia offers some of the most open distributions.

  • In Girona, the PSOE has two seats and Aliança Catalana between one and two. The socialists can win alone or tie with AC.
  • In Lleida, the PSOE fluctuates between one and two deputies, while ERC and Junts would each obtain one and the PP between zero and one. If the PSOE reaches two, it wins; if it stays at one, the tie can be multiple.
  • In Tarragona, something similar happens. The PSOE appears between one and two seats and PP, Vox, ERC, and Aliança Catalana would each obtain one. Junts could get another.

Barcelona is the only Catalan province where there is no discussion about the winner: the PSOE maintains a very wide advantage.

EH Bildu and PNV can also lead provinces

PP and PSOE are not the only parties with the possibility of being the first provincial force.

In Gipuzkoa, EH Bildu would obtain between two and three deputies, compared to two from the PNV and between one and two from the PSOE. If Bildu reaches three, it would be the first force alone. If it stays at two, it could tie with the PNV.

In Bizkaia, the first position is directly open between PSOE and PNV. Both move between two and three deputies, while EH Bildu would obtain two.

The PNV, therefore, can also end up as the first force alone in Bizkaia if it obtains three deputies and the PSOE stays at two.

In Álava, there is no winner: PSOE, EH Bildu, PP, and PNV tie at one deputy.

Aliança Catalana can catch up to the PSOE in Girona, but not surpass it in the published range. ERC and Junts can also enter ties for the first position in Lleida or Tarragona if the PSOE stays at the lower end.

Vox already surpasses the PSOE in Murcia and Almería

The expansion of Vox is better appreciated when directly compared to the socialists.

There are two provinces where Abascal would already obtain more deputies than the PSOE.

  • In Murcia, the PP would have five, Vox three, and the PSOE two.
  • In Almería, the PP would get three, Vox two, and the PSOE one.

These are the only two provinces where Vox clearly surpasses the PSOE according to the map.

Vox ties with the PSOE in another ten provinces

The territorial threat is much broader than those two surpluses.

Vox obtains exactly the same deputies as the PSOE in ten provinces: Guadalajara, Cuenca, Toledo, Albacete, Cáceres, León, Burgos, Illes Balears, Málaga, and Madrid.

Madrid is probably the case with the greatest political impact: PP between 16 and 17, PSOE eight, and Vox another eight.

In Málaga, PSOE and Vox would tie at three.

In Balearic Islands, both would obtain two.

And in Guadalajara, Cuenca, and Toledo, Vox would not only match the PSOE but also the PP in the first position.

Vox can reach the PSOE in seven more provinces

The ranges leave another seven territories where Vox can still end up with the same number of seats as the socialists.

They are Salamanca, Ávila, Valladolid, La Rioja, Granada, Alicante, and Tarragona.

For example, in Alicante, the PSOE appears with three deputies and Vox between two and three. In Granada, the PSOE fluctuates between two and three and Vox between one and two.

In Tarragona, the PSOE may end up with one deputy, the same that Vox is already assigned.

Added to the two provinces where Vox surpasses the PSOE, the ten where they are already tied, and the seven where it can catch up, the threat reaches 19 constituencies.

Vox threatens the PSOE much more than the PP

The map also allows for another reading: the growth of Vox is territorially eroding the PSOE much more than the PP.

Vox does not surpass the PP in any province.

It only reaches the popular party in the lead in Guadalajara, Cuenca, and Toledo, where there are triple ties with the PSOE.

In Ávila, there is also a possible combination in the range that could leave the PP, PSOE, and Vox tied with one deputy.

Outside of those cases, the PP maintains a clear distance from Vox.

This makes the expansion of Abascal a particularly delicate problem for the PSOE: in numerous provinces, Vox is already directly competing with the socialists to be the second force, while Feijóo maintains the first position.

A map much bluer, but still full of last open seats

The Sigma Dos photograph does not allow for converting all provinces into closed victories because many estimates are expressed through ranges. There is an important caution: this is not a survey conducted in August.

The main fieldwork was carried out between July 6 and July 20, 2026. To develop the estimate of seats by constituency, Sigma Dos also used 30,400 interviews conducted between May 4 and July 21. This means that the effect of the latest current events, especially the migration crisis in Ceuta, has not yet been estimated.

More key points, information and questions with FREN

AI-GENERATED CONTENT

What is the current status of the parliamentary processing of the reform of the General Electoral Law in Spain?

As of August 2026, there is no “major single reform” of Organic Law 5/1985, of June 19, on the General Electoral Regime (LOREG) in advanced processing, but rather a set of partial reforms at different stages of the procedure. Some have already been completed and are in force, while others are in initial phases (amendments or even before consideration).

1. Reform already approved: Formentera's own constituency

The most relevant completed reform is the one adapting the LOREG to the recent modification of article 69.3 of the Constitution so that Formentera has its own senator.

  • The Congress approved the organic law proposal and sent it to the Senate, according to the official note: Congress press release (06/18/2026) .
  • The Senate definitively approved it on June 24, 2026, with 252 votes in favor and 5 abstentions, as recorded in its note “SENATE OF SPAIN”: Senate note (06/24/2026) .
  • The reform has already been sanctioned and published in the Official State Gazette (BOE), and according to the press, it begins to be applied from early July 2026, so that in the next general elections each of the islands, Ibiza and Formentera, will elect a senator separately.

This piece of the electoral reform can therefore be considered parliamentary processing completed and in force.

2. Government bill on debates and polls

At the same time, the Government is promoting a Bill to amend the LOREG focused on:

  • Making at least one electoral debate mandatory on public media in each campaign.
  • Imposing the dissemination of microdata from electoral polls to enhance transparency.

According to the parliamentary database, this bill is listed as:

  • “Organic Bill amending Organic Law 5/1985…”, Government initiative, with number 121/000063 in the Congress of Deputies.
  • Its current status is opening of the period for amendments to the articles, which has been successively extended “until 2026-09-02”. That is, the Chamber is still in the phase of collecting amendments, prior to the establishment of a committee and report.

In summary, this line of electoral reform is formally in processing, but still in a relatively early phase in the Congress.

3. Bills on causes of ineligibility

There is also an important initiative from the Senate that also modifies the LOREG:

  • Organic Bill amending the LOREG regarding causes of ineligibility, promoted by the Popular Group in the Senate, with identifiers (15)622/000048 in the Senate and 124/000028 in the Congress.
  • The Senate took the bill into consideration and sent it to the Congress, where the Board agreed to commission a report to the Constitutional Committee and open the period for amendments. That period has also been extended “until 2026-09-02”.

This reform, focused on tightening the causes of ineligibility (particularly regarding terrorism-related crimes), is therefore in processing in the Congress, in the same amendment phase as the government bill on debates and polls.

4. Other initiatives on the LOREG

There are other organic bills affecting the LOREG, but with more limited scope:

  • Organic Bill by VOX to explicitly include justice fugitives as ineligible (No. 122/000065), admitted for processing but still pending consideration in Plenary.
  • VOX bill to have postal votes deposited and counted in separate ballot boxes, which was rejected in the vote on consideration on June 23, 2026, so that specific reform path has been closed.
  • Debates, still without normative translation, on incorporating into the LOREG the minimum threshold of 2 %–5 % required by the 2018 European electoral reform for European Parliament elections; Spain has yet to adapt its legislation, so there is no advanced parliamentary processing here yet.

5. Overall assessment

Overall, the “reform of the General Electoral Law” is currently in a mixed situation:

  • A partial reform already approved and in force (Formentera constituency).
  • Two major ongoing files in the Congress (government bill on debates and polls, and PP bill on ineligibilities), both in amendment phase.
  • Other specific bills (postal vote, fugitives, etc.) in various states, some already rejected.

Therefore, there is no closed comprehensive reform of the entire electoral system, but there is a significant block of partial modifications at different stages of the legislative procedure.

What are the main competencies of the president of the Popular Party according to the party's statutes?

The information consulted indicates that the Popular Party (PP) approved at its XXI National Congress (July 2025) new “consensus” Statutes that strengthen transparency, member participation, and internal control, but does not reproduce the specific articles on the National President. That is, the accessible texts do not provide the literal detail of the articles listing their competencies.

With this caution, and based on what the official PP sources say and the organizational context described by Demócrata, a reasonable synthesis can be made of the major blocks of functions that the Statutes effectively assign to the national president of the party. For an exhaustive and literal list of competencies, it is essential to consult the full text of the newly approved Statutes.

1. Political and strategic leadership of the party

The documents from the XXI Congress and official PP news show the president as the highest political leader of the organization:

  • Sets the general political line of the party and the future project submitted to the National Congress, where their leadership is reaffirmed.
  • Presents and defends the leadership team (Management Committee, general secretariat, deputy secretariats) that delegates then vote on, as seen with the changes announced at the XXI Congress.
  • Heads the political program emanating from the Political Report and translates it into electoral and opposition or government strategy.

2. Institutional and external representation

Various informational pieces describe the president as the main visible face of the PP:

  • Is the representative of the PP before other political forces, state institutions, civil society organizations, and the general public.
  • According to an analysis of the party’s “international wing,” the presidency assumes the competencies in foreign affairs of the PP, recovering a model in which the president directly manages the party’s international agenda.
  • Leads relations with the European family of the PP (European People’s Party) and with international allies, something reiterated in reports on the party’s external activity.

3. Coordination of the organization and territories

The new Statutes approved in 2025 strengthen the PP’s internal architecture with new councils and coordination committees (Council of Regional Presidents, Committee of Mayors of Large Cities, coordination committee of Provincial Councils, Island Councils, etc.). In this design:

  • The national president is at the top of this territorial coordination network, presiding over or promoting bodies that bring together regional presidents, major mayors, and provincial leaders.
  • Is the main responsible for aligning the state strategy with that of regional and local leaderships, especially on priority issues (water, education, health, regional financing, etc.), as highlighted in the PP’s own notes.

4. Promotion and supervision of internal life and the ethical code

The 2025 Statutes present themselves as a text that strengthens “exemplarity, transparency, internal control, and member participation.” From there, the president:

  • Shares with the general secretariat and other bodies the responsibility that the party functions as an “organized, well-oiled organism that serves society”, according to the report itself.
  • Must ensure, at the top of the organization, compliance with the Code of Ethics and Conduct and the operation of the new Compliance Office that the Statutes create to guarantee that “whoever does it, pays for it.”
  • Is politically accountable before the Congress and leadership bodies for the selection of cadres, alliance policy, and management of internal crises.

5. Relationship with members and internal democracy

The Statutes report insists on “putting members at the center,” simplifying the internal election system and strengthening accountability:

  • The president is the main guarantor that the internal democracy rules (primaries, role of delegates, presentation of candidacies) are applied according to what the Congress approved.
  • Assumes a central role in accountability to the membership: explaining their management, justifying the composition of bodies, and responding to internal criticism.
  • Leads the opening of participation and listening channels toward members and citizens, one of the express objectives of the new Statutes.

In summary, although the consulted texts do not include the literal list of articles, the current Statutes position the PP president as the highest political, organizational, and representative authority of the party, with a reinforced role in internal ethics, territorial coordination, international agenda, and relationship with the membership.

What results did the PSOE obtain in the last general elections compared to Vox at the provincial level?

The last general election held in Spain was the election to the Congress of Deputies on July 23, 2023 (23J). In that event:

  • PSOE: obtained 31.7 % of the votes (about 7,821,718 votes) and 121 seats.
  • Vox: achieved 12.4 % of the votes and 33 seats.

These national figures are recorded, for example, in various post-election polling analyses that compare surveys with the actual 23J result and take these data as reference: it is repeatedly noted that PSOE started from 31.7 % and 121 deputies, while Vox started from 12.4 % and 33 deputies.

Limitations regarding provincial data

Your question requests the breakdown “at the provincial level”, that is, for each of the 52 constituencies (the 50 provinces plus Ceuta and Melilla) how many votes and seats PSOE and Vox obtained, and a comparative table.

In the research conducted, the following were consulted:

  • Electoral analysis and polling articles published by the newspaper Demócrata in 2025 and 2026, which compare their estimates with the 23J results (recalling the national data of PSOE and Vox).
  • Reports using 23J as a basis for future territorial projections (for example, on how the vote could be redistributed by provinces in new scenarios).
  • Recent official documentation on other processes (such as the 2024 European elections), which do include detailed provincial breakdowns, but not for 23J.

However, in this set of sources, there is no already prepared table with the provincial breakdown of PSOE and Vox in the 2023 general elections, nor a list of votes and seats by constituency specifically for these two parties.

Since I must strictly adhere to the information contained in the consulted sources and cannot reconstruct from memory or approximate official figures, it is not possible to provide you with a province-by-province table with votes and seats of PSOE and Vox based on these documents.

What can be stated with certainty

Based on the information available in the consulted sources, only the following general comparisons can be clearly established:

  • In the whole of Spain, PSOE obtained in 2023:
    • Support around 31.7 % of the vote.
    • 121 seats, positioning as the second force in the Congress.
  • Vox, in the same process:
    • Achieved around 12.4 % of the vote.
    • Obtained 33 seats, as the third state force in number of deputies.
  • In later analyses (2025–2026 surveys) it is emphasized that Vox, in most scenarios, continues to start from those 33 seats and 12.4 % of 2023 as a reference result, while PSOE starts from 121 seats and more than 31 % of the vote.

Where to find the complete provincial breakdown

Although the reviewed sources do not include the province-by-province detail, that level of information does exist officially. To obtain exactly what you ask for (a comparative table by province of votes and seats of PSOE and Vox in the last general elections), the safest way is to go to:

  • Official electoral results website of the Ministry of the Interior, where data by constituency of each general election are published (votes by party, seats, turnout, etc.).
  • The statistical reports that the Interior Ministry publishes after each election, which include detailed tables by province and aggregated by party.

From those files, it is possible to build the table you request, comparing for each constituency:

  • Votes obtained by PSOE and seats assigned.
  • Votes obtained by Vox and seats assigned.
  • The relationship between both (vote difference, who was first, second, or third force in the province, etc.).

Summary

In summary, the last general elections are those of 23J 2023. We know precisely, from the consulted sources, that PSOE obtained 31.7 % and 121 deputies and that Vox got 12.4 % and 33 deputies nationwide. However, the analyzed sources do not provide the provincial breakdown of those results for each of the two parties, so it is not possible to reproduce here a province-by-province table without directly accessing the official data from the Ministry of the Interior.

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