The National Securities Market Commission (CNMV) highlights the solidity of financial markets, including those in Spain, despite the backdrop of uncertainty and the tightening of monetary policy. However, the body warns that the banking and energy sectors have high stock market valuations, as it details in its corresponding quarterly bulletin for the third quarter, released this Friday.
With regard to the Ibex 35, the CNMV states that the CAPE ratio -- cyclically adjusted price-earnings -- has rebounded strongly in recent years "due to the sharp revaluation of share prices", which has led the Spanish benchmark to place itself "at its highest level since the financial crisis", although still with levels "slightly lower" than those recorded at the time.
The report specifies that the momentum of the Ibex 35 in recent years is explained mainly by the good performance of the banking sector and, to a lesser extent, by the energy sector, thanks to its profits and its weight within the index.
"In both cases, their valuations are at highs from the past 15 years, which implies demanding valuations, but ones that are supported both by favorable financial conditions and by the increase in energy prices and demand," explains the CNMV.
This situation contrasts with other areas, such as industry or telecommunications, where the valuation metrics "are more moderate" and remain away from their historical peaks.
Despite these sectoral differences, the supervisor chaired by Carlos San Basilio highlights that the Ibex 35 is among the European indexes with the best performance after setting historical highs during the summer and accumulating a 12% revaluation so far this year.
Market overreaction linked to artificial intelligence
Internationally, equity markets managed to stabilize in the third quarter of 2026, after the intense rises recorded in the first half of the year.
However, the bulletin identifies as the main focus of attention the strong enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence (AI), which sustains investors' interest, but which has also driven valuations to very demanding levels.
The CNMV stresses that the viability of these prices "will depend on compliance with profit expectations", in a context in which debate is growing about whether the strong investments needed for the development of this technology "will generate sufficient returns to justify the current prices of some assets".
In this scenario, a slowdown or less dynamism in the growth of profits, whether due to a deceleration in the business or pressure from new competitors, or a prolonged period of high interest rates "could lead to corrections in segments with more demanding valuations".
Evolution of fixed-income markets
The report also focuses on the notable increase in yields in debt markets during the third quarter, especially in the longer parts of the curve, accompanied by specific episodes of higher volatility.
The securities regulator recalls that the rise in interest rates "adds pressure to public finances" due to the combination of higher financing costs, high levels of indebtedness, and growing public spending needs in the medium term, such as demographic aging, the climate transition, or the strengthening of defense.
In the private fixed-income segment, the CNMV highlights a "relatively solid" performance despite the increase in the cost of money, since risk premia have remained within stable ranges.
"This would reflect financing conditions that are still favorable and a generally positive perception of business solvency," specifies the agency.
Cryptoassets and exchange-traded funds linked to bitcoin
In the third quarter of the year, the cryptocurrency market recorded a significant recovery in prices, although it still clearly remains below the highs reached at the end of the previous year.
At the same time, the share of 'stablecoins' has remained around 10% of the total market capitalization throughout 2026, consolidating itself as "one of its main sources of liquidity", while the evolution of the accumulated flows of exchange-traded funds (ETFs, by their English acronym) shows the interest of asset managers, funds, and investors in the dynamics of bitcoin.
"The evolution of bitcoin ETFs reflects the rapid advance of bitcoin as a regulated investment asset, but it still remains far from other assets like gold, which shows that its adoption process still has a wide margin for development," he broke it down.