The allocation of seats in the general elections on 29 November keeps 25 constituencies open, in which there are still 26 MPs pending allocation, two of them in Barcelona.
Six provinces concentrate head-to-head clashes between the PP of Alberto Núñez Feijóo and the PSOE of Pedro Sánchez. In other constituencies, Vox is seeking to expand its representation, the alternative left is trying to retain MPs, and regional parties are competing to maintain or increase their presence in Congress.
These are the provinces where, according to the breakdown of the latest poll by Sigma Dos for El Mundo, the last seat is still up for grabs:
| Province | Dispute | Situation according to the poll |
|---|---|---|
| Seville | PP - PSOE | Current advantage of the PSOE |
| Lleida | PP - PSOE | The PSOE has lost the advantage it had two weeks ago |
| Almería | PP - PSOE | Tied at two seats |
| Cantabria | PP - PSOE | Tied at two seats |
| Ávila | PP - PSOE | Tied for one seat |
| Alicante | PP - PSOE | The PP has five and the PSOE three, with the possibility of a split of four each |
| Zaragoza | Vox - Frente Amplio | Vox seeks a second MP |
| Asturias | Vox - Frente Amplio | Vox seeks a second MP |
| A Coruña | Vox - Frente Amplio | Dispute for the last seat |
| Valencia | Compromís - PP | Compromís is aiming for a third MP; the PP for now retains the sixth |
| Málaga | PSOE - Vox | Dispute for the seat that determines the second provincial force |
| Madrid | PSOE - Vox | Dispute for the seat that determines the second provincial force |
| Las Palmas | Left-wing parties | Internal dispute among left-wing formations |
| Huesca | PP - PSOE - Vox | Three-way tie for one seat |
| Teruel | PP - PSOE - Vox | Three-way tie for one seat |
| Palencia | PP - PSOE - Vox | Three-way tie for one seat |
| Zamora | PP - PSOE - Vox | Three-way tie for one seat |
| Segovia | PP - PSOE - Vox | Three-way tie for one seat |
| La Rioja | PP - PSOE - Vox | The PSOE would lose an MP that PP and Vox dispute |
| Santa Cruz de Tenerife | Coalición Canaria - PSOE | For now, Coalición Canaria retains the last seat |
| Huelva | PSOE - Adelante Andalucía | The PSOE retains the MP under dispute |
| Barcelona | PSOE - Vox - ERC - Junts | Four parties compete for two seats |
| Girona | PP - ERC | The PP is aiming for ERC’s second seat |
| Guipúzcoa | PNV - EH Bildu | Current advantage of the PNV |
| Vizcaya | PNV - EH Bildu | Current advantage of the PNV |
Six direct duels between PP and PSOE
The struggle between Feijóo and Sánchez offers an advantage to the popular candidate across the set of constituencies. According to the poll, the PP could prevail in 32 provinces, while the PSOE would only have options to directly win that matchup in four.
Across the whole map, Vox can also expand its territorial presence. The estimate gives it opportunities to obtain representation in 42 provinces, compared with the 24 in which it secured deputies in the general elections of 2023.
The territorial distribution can also change
The fight for the last deputies takes place in a setting of a retreat by the alternative left. According to the analysis published by El Mundo, Frente Amplio could secure representation in up to nine provinces, compared with the 19 in which it obtained seats in 2023.
At the other end, 13 constituencies maintain exactly the same distribution of deputies as three years ago: Jaén, Ciudad Real, Guadalajara, Soria, Valladolid, Castellón, Badajoz, Lugo, Orense, Navarra, Álava, Ceuta and Melilla. Another six provinces for now keep the result from 2023, although they still have some seat in dispute.