The PP and Vox begin the campaign for the general elections on 29 November with a comfortable absolute majority in the Congress, according to the first installment of the daily tracking report prepared by Sigma Dos for EL MUNDO. The combined total of both parties would obtain between 189 and 202 seats, above the 176 needed for an absolute majority, while the PSOE is more than five points behind the Partido Popular.
PP and Vox surpass 50% of the vote
First measurement of the campaign. Vote intention estimate and seat ranges.
Seat range: PP, 126–132 · PSOE, 103–108 · Vox, 63–70 · Frente Amplio, 13–15 · Podemos, 0.
The study, prepared using 3,870 interviews conducted between November 3 and 11, grants Alberto Núñez Feijóo the 30,8% of the votes and between 126 and 132 seats. Behind him appears Pedro Sánchez’s PSOE, with 25,3% and a range of 103 to 108 deputies. Vox, led by Santiago Abascal, obtains 19,6% and between 63 and 70 representatives.
The combined total of PP and Vox reaches the 50,4% of intended vote, while the overall set of parties to the left of the PSOE loses strength. The study also points to a mobilization of voters who abstained in the 2023 general elections, especially favorable to the two main right-wing parties.
The 2023 abstention boosts PP and Vox
One of the study’s conclusions is the growth in right-wing vote intention among those who did not participate in the general elections of July 23, 2023.
According to Sigma Dos, the 20,7% of former abstentionists now declares its intention to vote for Vox, compared with the 18,4% recorded in the reference measurement from the previous week. The percentage that goes for PP also increases, rising from 13,4% to 15,7%.
In contrast, the PSOE retreats among this group of voters: 11,6% of those who abstained in 2023 would now opt for the socialists, compared with the previous 13,5%. The poll estimates turnout at 76,7% and calculates that 11,1% of the electorate remains undecided.
The PSOE retains six out of every ten voters from 2023
Electoral loyalty appears as another of the main problems for the socialists. Only 62,6% of those who voted for the PSOE in 2023 would repeat their choice, according to the tracking.
Among vote leaks, 7.9% of former socialist voters would lean toward the PP and 3.5% toward Vox. The study estimates that these shifts account for close to 900,000 votes that would move from the left bloc to the right one.
In addition, more than 10% of those who supported the PSOE in the previous general elections would now choose nationalist or regionalist parties. To its left, Frente Amplio would obtain 7.3% of the votes and between 13 and 15 seats, counting its territorial brands, while Podemos would be left out of Congress with 1.4%.
ERC surpasses Junts and EH Bildu puts the PNV ahead
Among nationalist and separatist parties, ERC would obtain between eight and nine deputies, ahead of Junts, which would secure between six and seven. In the Basque Country, EH Bildu would achieve between six and eight seats, compared with the four or five that the study attributes to the PNV.
The BNG would win two representatives in Galicia and Coalición Canaria would contest a seat for Tenerife. For its part, Adelante Andalucía would break into Congress with an estimate of three to four deputies.
Daily tracking until November 23
Sigma Dos’s tracking for EL MUNDO includes an initial sample of 3,870 interviews, obtained through a mixed methodology of telephone and online surveys. Starting from this first installment, 750 interviews a day will be added.
The estimates reflect declared preferences during fieldwork and do not correspond to election results. The ranges of deputies may also vary during the campaign due to vote shifts and their provincial distribution. DEMÓCRATA will update this tracking with the new measurements and a daily evolution chart.