Will Sánchez resign if he loses on November 29? The 110 seats of his 'risk premium' in the PSOE

The call for general elections in Spain combines decisions by the Government and the King with very precise rules set out in the Constitution and the Organic Law of the General Electoral Regime (LOREG). It covers two key moments: the dissolution of the Chambers and the period from the call until the constitution of the new Cortes.

1. Who decides and how is it called?

The basic framework is in the Spanish Constitution (text in BOE):

• “Ordinary” dissolution (art. 115 CE): the President of the Government, after deliberation of the Council of Ministers and under his exclusive responsibility, may propose the dissolution of the Congress, the Senate, or both Chambers. The King decrees the dissolution and the royal decree sets the date of the elections.
• “Automatic” dissolution due to investiture deadlock (art. 99.5 CE): if two months pass from the first investiture vote without any candidate obtaining the confidence of the Congress, the King automatically dissolves both Chambers and calls elections, with the countersignature of the President of the Congress.
• Limits: dissolution cannot be proposed while a motion of censure is pending, nor can there be a new dissolution by this route before one year has passed since the previous one (except in the case of art. 99.5 CE).

The LOREG (Organic Law 5/1985) specifies that:

• The call for elections to the Congress and the Senate is always made by royal decree.
• In case of early dissolution, the same decree includes the dissolution of the Chamber(s) and the call for elections.
• Except in the case of art. 99.5 CE, the decree is issued with the countersignature of the President of the Government, after deliberation of the Council of Ministers.

2. Deadlines and basic calendar

Article 68.6 CE establishes that the period between the call and the holding of the elections is 54 days, for elections to the Congress (a period that also applies when the elections are joint Congress-Senate).

On that general basis, the LOREG develops the electoral calendar (census, presentation and proclamation of candidacies, campaign, voting, counts, electoral litigation…) and a specific law, the Organic Law 2/2016 (LO 2/2016), introduces a particular regime:

• For elections called under the art. 99.5 CE scenario, the seventh additional provision of the LOREG sets a shorter process: 47 days between the call and election day.
• This reduction is mainly achieved by shortening the electoral campaign (8 days instead of 15) and “reusing” elements of the immediately previous process (same Electoral Boards, maintenance of representatives and endorsements, etc.).

After the vote, the Constitution provides that the new Cortes must be constituted within 25 days following the elections, which closes the cycle started with the dissolution.

3. Role of the Congress, the Senate, and the Permanent Deputation

Once the Chambers are dissolved, the Congress and the Senate cease to meet and lose their ordinary activity. However, the Constitution guarantees institutional continuity through the Permanent Deputations:

• Article 78 CE provides that each Chamber has a Permanent Deputation, of at least 21 members, representing the parliamentary groups and presided over by the Presidency of the Chamber.
• Upon expiration of the mandate or dissolution, the Permanent Deputation assumes certain powers of the Chambers and continues in office until the constitution of the new Cortes Generales.
• Its powers with the Cortes dissolved are basically limited to:
  • The validation or repeal of royal decree-laws (art. 86 CE).
  • Necessary decisions in case of states of alarm, exception, and siege (art. 116 CE), when there is no constituted Congress.
• When the new Chambers are constituted, the Permanent Deputation must account for the matters dealt with and its decisions.

4. What happens after the call until the constitution of the new Cortes?

From the publication of the royal decree of dissolution and call, a complete electoral period opens:

• The Government goes, if applicable, into caretaker mode after the elections, but during the campaign acts with the limitations inherent to the principle of neutrality and the rules of the LOREG and the Central Electoral Board.
• The Electoral Boards (Central, Provincial, and Zone) are constituted, the census is updated and reviewed, candidacies are presented and proclaimed, and the campaign is carried out.
• After the election day, the provisional count is done at the tables, the general count by the Provincial Boards, and, if applicable, electoral litigation appeals.
• Once the elected are proclaimed, the constitutive session of the Congress and the Senate is convened, in which the Boards of both Chambers are elected and the new Cortes Generales are officially declared constituted.
• From that moment, the investiture phase of the President of the Government is activated, according to art. 99 CE, and the Permanent Deputation ceases its exceptional functions, limiting itself to accounting.

In summary, the parliamentary process to call general elections combines a political decision — dissolution proposed by the President of the Government or automatic dissolution due to investiture deadlock — with a constitutionally fixed calendar and a system of institutional continuity ensured by the Permanent Deputations until the new Cortes take over.

The Secretary General of the PSOE is the highest political and organizational authority of the party between congresses, although subject to what the Federal Congress, the Federal Committee, and the Federal Statutes themselves decide. Pedro Sánchez currently holds that position and, at the same time, the Presidency of the Government, concentrating in his figure the leadership of the party and the Executive.

Functions and powers of the Secretary General of the PSOE

According to the Federal Statutes approved at the 41st Federal Congress of the PSOE (document available, for example, on the PSOE website), the Secretariat General assumes, in summary, the following powers:

• General political direction: coordinate the party's general policy and strategy in accordance with the congress resolutions and the decisions of the Federal Committee.
• Highest political representation: exercise the representation of the PSOE before institutions, other political forces, social organizations, and the citizenry, being the main spokesperson of the federal leadership.
• Head of the Federal Executive Commission (CEF): preside over and coordinate the work of the CEF, responsible for implementing the Congress resolutions and directing the party's ordinary activity.
• Relationship with the Federal Committee: convene the Federal Committee, propose its agenda, and report to it on the political situation and the leadership's actions.
• Key strategic proposals: submit to the Federal Committee proposals on congress calls, internal calendars, and, if applicable, on the PSOE's candidacy for the Presidency of the Government.
• Territorial coordination: politically guide and coordinate the autonomous federations and other territorial structures, ensuring a common line throughout the party.
• Electoral and parliamentary orientation: set, together with the competent bodies, the general criteria for electoral action and the Socialist Group's performance in the Cortes and other chambers.
• Internal and parliamentary appointments: propose certain leadership positions in parliamentary groups and in the federal structure.
• Supervision of compliance with the political line: ensure that PSOE public and organizational officeholders act according to the approved political objectives.
• Management of internal conflicts: intervene, within statutory margins, in resolving conflicts and internal appeals, usually in coordination with other guarantee bodies.
• Participation in programmatic definition: promote, together with the CEF and the Federal Committee, the preparation of political documents, programmatic criteria, and major party campaigns.

Although the Secretary General leads the organization, the Statutes make clear that the highest body is the Federal Congress and that the Federal Committee exercises political control of the leadership between congresses. The Secretary General is elected by the membership in primaries and ratified by the Congress, thus reinforcing internal legitimacy.

Pedro Sánchez's political trajectory

Pedro Sánchez Pérez-Castejón (Madrid, 1972) is an economist and holds a PhD in Economics and Business. He joined the PSOE in 1993 and has developed a career ranging from municipal politics to the Presidency of the Government, passing through several terms as a deputy and two cycles leading the Socialist Secretariat General (official biography at La Moncloa and summary in this biographical entry).

Between 2004 and 2009 he was a councilor in the Madrid City Council and was part of bodies of municipal housing and urban promotion companies. In 2009 he first entered the Congress of Deputies as a deputy for Madrid, a seat he held again from 2013. In parliament, he worked especially on economic and European matters.

After Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba's resignation, he was elected Secretary General of the PSOE in 2014 through primaries. He led the party in the 2015 and 2016 general elections, without managing to form a government. The internal conflict over Mariano Rajoy's investiture culminated in the October 2016 Federal Committee, where Sánchez resigned as Secretary General and later left his seat to avoid participating in the abstention that enabled the PP government.

In 2017 he toured the party groups and ran again in primaries against Susana Díaz and Patxi López. He won that internal consultation and was re-elected Secretary General, in what within the PSOE itself is described as a “catharsis” that strengthened leadership legitimized directly by the membership, as highlighted by various socialist leaders in statements collected by the newspaper Demócrata.

The turning point in his trajectory came in June 2018, when the Congress of Deputies approved the motion of censure presented by the PSOE against Mariano Rajoy. Since then Sánchez has been President of the Government; he was formally appointed by the King by royal decree published in the BOE (for example, his re-election in 2023).

Since then he has presided over several governments: first alone, then in coalition with Unidas Podemos, and after the 2023 general elections, leading a majority articulated through agreements with various nationalist and left-wing forces, as reported by various political chronicles from Demócrata. His mandate has been marked by managing the COVID‑19 pandemic, the subsequent economic and energy crisis, the use of European funds, and various labor and social reforms (such as the Minimum Vital Income and the increase of the minimum wage).

Today, Pedro Sánchez combines three central positions: Secretary General of the PSOE, President of the Government, and de facto leader of the parliamentary majority supporting his Executive. His trajectory is marked by the recovery of the party's leadership after the 2016 internal rupture and by using that organizational leadership to reach and maintain the head of government through intense parliamentary negotiation.

In the last general elections held in Spain, on July 23, 2023 (23J), the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) obtained a result of 31.7 % of the votes and 121 seats in the Congress of Deputies. As of today, according to the most recent data on the composition of the Lower House, the Socialist Parliamentary Group maintains 121 deputies with a valid seat, that is, the same number of seats it won in those elections.

PSOE results in the July 23, 2023 general elections

The last general electoral event before the recent call for new elections was on July 23, 2023. According to information gathered from various analyses and electoral summaries, and reported in media such as Heraldo, El Confidencial or Público, the PSOE's balance was as follows:

• Percentage of vote at the national level: approximately 31.7 % of valid votes cast.
• Number of votes: around 7.8 million ballots in its favor across Spain (the exact figure varies slightly depending on the source, but is in that order of magnitude).
• Seats in Congress: 121 deputies out of a total of 350.

This result placed the PSOE as the second largest force in number of seats, but with sufficient representation, combined with other formations, to articulate the parliamentary majority that supported Pedro Sánchez's investiture and the start of the XV Legislature. Much of the subsequent polling analysis uses precisely those 31.7 % and 121 deputies as a reference to compare the evolution of socialist support throughout the legislature.

Deputies currently held by the PSOE in Congress

Regarding the current situation in the Congress of Deputies, information from the parliamentary actors database indicates that the Socialist Parliamentary Group in Congress currently has 121 deputies with a valid seat. That is, the group maintains exactly the same number of seats as it won at the polls in July 2023.

According to our database, which collects official records, as of the reference date of October 6, 2026, it is confirmed that:

• The Socialist Parliamentary Group in Congress (XV legislature) comprises 121 deputies with current membership status in the group.
• The count includes both representatives elected on the PSOE lists and those from linked candidacies (for example, PSC) integrated into the same parliamentary group.
• Substitutions made throughout the legislature — due to resignations, appointments to other positions, or personal reasons — have not altered the total number of seats of the group, as each vacancy has been followed by the corresponding incorporation of the next person on the electoral list.

This stability in the number of PSOE deputies occurs despite, as documented by media such as Demócrata, a significant volume of resignations and replacements in the entire Chamber since the start of the XV Legislature. In the socialist case, there have been several departures and entries of new deputies, but always under the general rule of the Spanish electoral system: the seat belongs to the list, not to the individual person, and is filled by the next candidate.

Summary

• In the last general elections (23J 2023), the PSOE achieved approximately 31.7 % of the votes and obtained 121 seats in Congress.
• Currently, in the XV Legislature and as of October 6, 2026, the Socialist Parliamentary Group still has 121 deputies with valid seats in the Congress of Deputies.

Therefore, both the initial electoral result and the current composition of the group coincide in the same number of seats: 121 socialist deputies in Congress.