The Democrats have managed to position themselves ahead of the Republicans in trust to manage the U.S. economy for the first time in about a decade, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, published less than three months before the midterm elections on November 3.
37% of registered voters believe that the Democratic Party has a better plan, policy, or approach for the economy, compared to 36% who opt for the Republicans. The difference is just one point, but it breaks a Republican advantage that had been maintained for years on one of the most decisive issues for the U.S. electorate.
The Democrats also gain an advantage in voting intention
The change is not limited to economic management. The poll also reflects that, if the congressional elections were held now, more registered voters would choose a Democratic candidate than a Republican one.
The national picture thus favors the party three months before the elections, although it does not allow for a sole anticipation of who will control Congress starting in January.
The U.S. electoral system turns legislative elections into a sum of territorial competitions. In the House of Representatives, around three dozen districts concentrate a good part of the battle, while about eight Senate races appear among the most contested.
A national advantage in voting intention may, therefore, not translate into a parliamentary majority if support is not concentrated in the decisive states and districts.
Michigan tests the Democratic strategy
Michigan has become one of the first scenarios to measure the party's ability to transform that national improvement into concrete results.
Democratic voters in the state have chosen this week Abdul El-Sayed as the candidate for the U.S. Senate. His progressive profile makes the race a relevant test for a party that needs to mobilize its base without losing independents and moderates.
Michigan is among the territories that could be decisive in determining control of the Upper House. El-Sayed's candidacy will allow for testing to what extent the improvement in national polls can be transferred to a politically divided state.
The result will also have an internal reading. A victory would reinforce the bet on progressive candidates in competitive territories; a defeat would fuel doubts about the ability of that profile to expand the Democratic electoral coalition.
The economy returns to the center of the campaign
The Reuters/Ipsos data takes on special importance because the economy is once again among the main concerns of Americans.
Fuel prices are among the factors that most worry those surveyed. The rise in gasoline prices occurs after the escalation resulting from the attacks by the United States and Israel against Iran and amid uncertainty about a possible prolongation of instability in the Middle East.
Foreign policy and domestic economy thus intersect in the midst of the electoral campaign. The evolution of oil can directly affect the price of gasoline and, with it, the perception that citizens have about the economic management of the Government and the parties.
For the Democrats, regaining ground in the economy means eroding one of the traditional strengths of the Republican Party. The survey does not reflect, however, a broad turnaround: the difference remains minimal and the electoral scenario remains open.
Inflation, employment, and interest rates can change the picture
The midterm elections will be held on November 3, but the primary calendar will continue in different states until mid-September.
During that period, the priorities of the electorate may change. Inflation, fuel prices, employment, interest rates, and the evolution of international conflicts will have the capacity to modify the economic perception before the vote.
The evolution of specific candidates will also be decisive. The composition of Congress does not depend solely on the national popularity of the two major parties, but on local campaigns in states and districts with very different political profiles.
The national advantage does not guarantee control of Congress
The main caution of the survey lies precisely in the distance between national polls and the functioning of the American electoral system.
The House of Representatives is decided district by district. The Senate, state by state. The territorial distribution of the vote may prove more decisive than the national percentage accumulated by each party.
Michigan will be one of the references to verify it. Democrats need to turn their improvement on issues like the economy into victories within competitive territories.
For Republicans, the warning from the poll is not only in that point of difference. It is in having lost, at least temporarily, the clear advantage that for about ten years they had maintained in voters' perception of who manages the economy better.
With less than three months until the polls, Democrats have managed to surpass them in that area. The battle will now be to transfer that perception to the states and districts that will decide the control of Congress.