The Intelligence of Denmark has indicated this Thursday that, according to its assessments, the Russian authorities could carry out military actions against certain targets "as long as they believe that such aggressions 'prevent a possible open war' by 'provoking a collective military response from NATO'".
"It is likely that Russia will carry out military attacks only if it believes that such attacks will not lead to a war," the Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) has stated in a statement, in which it also warns that Moscow could act even without having "full certainties" about this aspect.
"Consequently, there is a risk that Russia considers that NATO countries will not respond collectively, especially if it believes that the United States cannot or does not want to support European countries in a possible war against Russia," the agency has warned, which considers it very likely that the Kremlin "will intensify its hybrid war in the coming months".
In this regard, the DDIS emphasizes that Russian hybrid operations against targets in Europe "have primarily aimed to generate fear and weaken public support for the delivery of aid to Ukraine." "Russia has increasingly begun to directly attempt to prevent such aid from reaching the country; for example, through acts of sabotage against defense companies or against the railway transport that carries military material," the document states.
"The Intelligence Service estimates that Russia will intensify its hybrid war by carrying out more frequent attacks against the West and NATO, with more serious consequences for the affected countries. This could include destructive cyberattacks that paralyze socially vital functions, as well as acts of sabotage that could result in casualties," the report adds.
At the same time, the Danish agency warns that the risk of a "limited" military attack by Moscow against one or several NATO member states that share a border with Russia is "low" but "growing," and could occur even if the country "has not developed the necessary capabilities to wage a regional war".
"A limited military attack would be a desperate measure on the part of Russia and, like the intensification of hybrid attacks, could occur in the coming months. The objective would be to divert European resources intended to support Ukraine and sow division within NATO, in case the Alliance fails to agree on a collective response," he added.
According to the text, "such a military attack could take the form of isolated strikes with long-range weapons against vital infrastructure for supporting Ukraine. In such a situation, Russia could claim that the projectiles hit NATO territory only because their trajectory was altered by Ukrainian interference. It could also be a false flag operation in which Russia used Ukrainian-made drones to attack a NATO country."
For Danish Intelligence, it is also not ruled out that Russia deploys a small contingent of forces in NATO territory bordering its borders, although it specifies that, before such a measure, "it could concentrate troops first in areas close to the border," a move that would be "difficult to hide."
"Change of trajectory" under increasing pressure
The report states that Russia is under increasing pressure, which could lead to a "change of trajectory" by President Vladimir Putin. "Ukraine continues with long-range attacks and is causing more damage within Russia, which is suffering heavy losses in exchange for marginal victories. In addition, the Russian economy is on the verge of being plunged into a serious crisis caused by military spending, international sanctions, and strong Ukrainian attacks on its energy infrastructure," the document details.
"Western economic and military support for Ukraine is vital for the country's ability to contain Russian forces and increase the cost for Russia to maintain the war. There are no prospects for Russia to achieve significant advances in the war against Ukraine in the next six months," Danish Intelligence states.
For this reason, the DDIS considers "it very unlikely that President Putin is willing to yield on his fundamental objectives." "Russia believes that Europe will gradually develop an autonomous military capability that, by 2030, will pose an increasing threat to the country," the report notes.
"Consequently, the coming years represent for Russia a window of opportunity during which President Putin could conclude that it is worth taking the risk of trying to drastically modify the security order in Europe. Therefore, it is likely that Putin will seek to alter the current course of events," concludes the Danish Intelligence document.