The advance of Die Linke in Berlin has a marked generational component. The left-wing formation reaches 48% among voters aged 25 to 34 and 42% among those aged 16 to 24, according to the graph of the electoral survey by Infratest dimap released by ARD during the night of September 20.
These are support percentages within each age group, not the composition of the party's electorate. The data means that almost one in two voters aged 25 to 34 would have chosen Die Linke, according to that survey.
The candidacy of Elif Eralp thus finds its greatest support among young adults. In the group of 35 to 44 years, support stands at 30%, while it drops to 19% among those aged 45 to 59.
The percentages correspond to an electoral survey, not to an official count broken down by ages, and should be read as estimates.
A distance of 34 points between generations
The contrast is accentuated among older voters. Die Linke obtains 15% among those aged 60 to 69 and 14% among those over 69.
The distance between its best range, that of 25 to 34 years, and that of 70 or more reaches 34 percentage points. Support among the former exceeds more than triple that recorded among the latter.
The graph also shows advances in all groups compared to the electoral comparison presented by ARD. The most pronounced jump corresponds to voters aged 25 to 34: 31 points. Among those aged 35 to 44, the increase is 18 points.
Die Linke also mobilizes those who did not vote
The analysis of transfers by Infratest dimap adds another key: the candidacy is not limited to reorganizing the left-wing vote.
The provisional model published by Tagesschau, with reference to 18:00, calculates a net gain of 75,000 votes for Die Linke in its exchange with abstention. It also estimates favorable balances of 51,000 votes against the Greens, 36,000 against the SPD, and 14,000 against the CDU. In contrast, it records a net loss of 11,000 in its exchange with BSW.
The combination points to a double expansion: capturing voters from other candidacies and mobilizing people who did not participate in the previous call.
The young vote does not have a single direction
Berlin offers a picture that forces a nuance in any uniform description of the German youth vote. In this election, a left-wing formation achieves particularly high support among those under 35 years old.
The question that opens the result goes beyond who finishes first: to what extent can Die Linke convert that connection with young voters into lasting support. The survey identifies where it is strongest; the subsequent political evolution will test the stability of that bond.