The rise of Alternative for Germany in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is not explained solely by the sinking of the CDU. The first estimate of electoral transfers from Infratest dimap points to another decisive origin of its gains: the mobilization of people who had previously abstained.
The model published by ARD attributes to AfD a positive balance of 67,000 votes in its exchange with abstention. It is the largest gain among the flows that appear in the provisional graph at 18:00.
The data adds a dimension to the result: the party expands its support beyond the dispute for voters who were already voting for other formations.
The SPD provides a greater balance than the CDU
The second most important transfer recorded in that graph comes from the SPD. Infratest dimap calculates a net gain of 45,000 votes for AfD in the exchange with the social democrats.
Against the CDU, the favorable balance is 28,000. The model also estimates net gains of 15,000 votes against the FDP and 8,000 against Die Linke.
The origin of those supports outlines a transversal expansion among electorates of different parties. In particular, the balance against the SPD exceeds that which appears against the conservatives, despite the fact that the fall of the CDU concentrates a good part of the political attention.
What a net transfer of votes means
The figures from Infratest dimap express estimated balances. A gain of 45,000 votes against the SPD means that the exchange between both formations favors AfD by that amount; there may be movements in both directions.
Expanding the electorate does not guarantee reaching the Government
The closing poll from ARD places AfD at 37%, ahead of the SPD, with 35.5%, while the CDU stands at 5.5%. These are estimates released at the close of the polls. Reuters also reports that the other main forces maintain their rejection of a coalition with AfD.
The party therefore faces two different tests: transforming its growth into seats and achieving a majority that allows it to govern.
The analysis of transfers helps to understand the first. Its expansion is fed by abstention and several parties, which poses a broader problem for its rivals than recovering a single group of former voters.
It remains to be seen in sufficient detail which social and generational profiles are at the forefront of those movements. What they do show is that the mobilization of former abstainers occupies a central place in the advance of AfD.