Israel will learn this Sunday who will have the first opportunity to form a Government after the October 27 elections, which have left Benjamin Netanyahu without an assured parliamentary majority and the opposition figure Gadi Eisenkot with more potential backing to try to succeed him but with a majority that is difficult to put together. The president of the country, Isaac Herzog, will have to choose between the two after completing consultations with the parties, whose results have favored the former head of the Israeli Army General Staff.
Herzog has held off on his decision until November 8 in order to hold new talks with political leaders and check the prospects for each candidate. The mandate does not guarantee the formation of an Executive, since the one chosen will have to negotiate a majority in a Knéset of 120 deputies, where differences between parties make agreements difficult.
The designation will come almost two weeks after elections in which Likud again became the party with the most seats, although the outcome did not allow Netanyahu to keep a sufficient majority to continue governing with his allies. The prime minister will remain in office while the composition of the next Executive is negotiated.
Eisenkot gets 67 recommendations versus Netanyahu’s 46
The consultations held by Herzog have ended with 67 deputies favorable to Eisenkot, 46 supporters of Netanyahu, and another seven who have chosen not to recommend either of the candidates. The result gives the former military chief an advantage of 21 parliamentarians and surpasses the 61 seats needed to reach an absolute majority, although these recommendations do not imply a commitment to be nominated for investiture.
In the elections of October 27, the Likud of Netanyahu won 27 seats and its religious and nationalist allies reached a combined 53. The four parties of the opposition bloc led by Eisenkot won 48 deputies, while the two Arab representation parties added another 19.
The backing of these last two formations has allowed Eisenkot to reach the 67 recommendations. Netanyahu, by contrast, has received 46 after Judaísmo Unido de la Torá, an ultra-Orthodox formation with seven deputies that had integrated his bloc, decided not to recommend any candidate.
Vetoes between parties make forming the next Government difficult
President Herzog has acknowledged that the differences between the parties prevent it from being determined yet which candidate can secure a majority to govern. During his appearance on Thursday, he warned of the existence of "mutual vetoes between the blocs and within the blocs themselves," which complicate negotiations despite Eisenkot's advantage in the consultations.
The leader of Yashar has 48 deputies from his bloc and needs to broaden those supports to reach the absolute majority. Although the Arab parties have recommended his candidacy, Eisenkot has rejected so far sharing Government with those formations, so he will have to negotiate other formulas for parliamentary cooperation or seek agreements with parties outside his alliance.
The position of the ultra-Orthodox formations will also be important, especially United Torah Judaism, whose disagreements with Netanyahu over exemptions from military service for religious students have weakened the relationship with Likud.
The regulation of the conscription of ultra-Orthodox Jews caused clashes between the partners of the previous Executive and continues to condition the talks. Any agreement with these formations will have to take into account an issue that has pitted the religious parties against other parliamentary forces.
Herzog will announce on Sunday who he entrusts with forming Government
Israeli legislation does not oblige the president to choose the leader who received the most recommendations during the consultations, but the one he considers to have the greatest chances of bringing together a parliamentary majority.
The appointed candidate will initially have 28 days to negotiate a coalition, with the possibility of requesting an extension of up to 14 days. If he fails to secure the necessary support, Herzog may resort to the procedures provided for by Israeli legislation in an attempt to have another deputy form the Executive.
The new Knéset is due to be constituted on Tuesday, November 10, two days after the presidential announcement. Negotiations may continue over the following weeks, while Netanyahu remains in charge of the caretaker Government.