The battle for the United States Senate reaches the final stretch with a scenario that, if confirmed at the ballot box, would represent an important setback for the Republicans. YouGov, which places Democratic candidates ahead in five contests for seats currently held by Republicans.
The summary notes leads of four points for James Talarico in Texas, two for Sherrod Brown in Ohio, one for Josh Turek in Iowa, five for Troy Jackson in Maine, and one for Adam Hamilton in Kansas. It adds a lead of four points for Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and a tie in Nebraska.
Texas, Ohio and Maine: the advantages that could change the map
The fundamental difference lies in which party defends each seat. A Democratic victory in Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Maine or Kansas would mean taking a seat away from the Republicans. In Michigan, by contrast, a victory by El-Sayed would allow a Democratic seat to be retained.
| State | Highlighted candidate | Released lead | What their victory would mean |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | James Talarico (demócrata) | 4 points | Take a seat away from the Republicans |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown (demócrata) | 2 points | Take a seat away from the Republicans |
| Iowa | Josh Turek (demócrata) | 1 point | Take a seat away from the Republicans |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed (demócrata) | 4 points | Retain a Democratic seat |
| Maine | Troy Jackson (demócrata) | 5 points | Take a seat away from the Republicans |
| Kansas | Adam Hamilton (demócrata) | 1 point | Take a seat away from the Republicans |
| Nebraska | - | Tie | The summary does not indicate a winner |
Source: YouGov.
The problem for the Republicans: defending several fronts at once
The political reading of this scenario goes beyond a specific candidacy. If the Republicans reach the end of the campaign with several contests open simultaneously, they must divide resources, events and mobilization efforts among territories they need to retain.
For the Democrats, having different opportunities to win seats reduces dependence on a single race. But they also need to protect the seats they already control: a gain in one state can be offset by a loss in another.
The image circulated on social media is also not enough to calculate the final composition of the Senate. It is a selection of seven contests, not a model covering all House elections.
A one-point lead does not allow a seat to be considered won
Iowa and Kansas appear with differences of only one point; Ohio, with two. Without the technical sheets it cannot be established whether those distances are statistically significant or adequately compare the studies.
It also matters when the interviews were conducted. That an account publishes a figure on November 1 does not mean the poll was carried out that day or during the last week.
YouGov published on October 7 a series of state polls conducted between September 18 and October 5.
Other polls also show competitive races
The contest in several of these states does appear in studies published by other firms. RealClearPolling collects, for example, a CNN poll with Talarico six points ahead in Texas, Jackson four up in Maine, and Hamilton four ahead in Kansas. In Iowa, a co/efficient study places Republican Ashley Hinson two points ahead of Turek.