The race toward the general elections of November 29 could be experiencing a significant shift after the Urda (Toledo) train accident, which occurred last Wednesday, October 28. The first observations on voting behavior released after the tragedy point to a deterioration in the PSOE’s expectations, while the Partido Popular could improve its results from the previous general elections and Vox would maintain a growth trend that would allow it to double its representation in the Congress.
The analysis, presented this Saturday by the president of the polling consultancy GAD3, Narciso Michavila, distinguishes between the electoral movements that were already taking place before the accident and the changes detected in recent days. Among the previous trends stand out an increase in turnout, the shift of the youth vote to the right, the weakness of the political space inherited from Sumar and the growth of ERC and EH Bildu. The main novelty after Wednesday would be, according to this interpretation, the worsening of Pedro Sánchez’s expectations and the possibility that Alberto Núñez Feijóo manages to surpass the 137 deputies obtained in 2023.
"We are detecting an abrupt change in voting since Wednesday," Michavila assured in a message published on X, where he maintains that "the PSOE can no longer hold on" and considers that Sánchez has lost his chances of becoming the most voted candidate. This is, however, a polling assessment that is still not accompanied by a new public survey with technical sheet, sample size and results broken down before and after the accident, so it is not possible to independently measure the magnitude of the change or attribute it exclusively to the railway tragedy.
PSOE loses momentum and faces the risk of a historic result in Andalusia
The main change indicated by this analysis affects the Socialist Party, whose electoral prospects would have worsened considerably since the Urda accident. According to Michavila, the PSOE would no longer manage to maintain the resilience attributed to it in the first weeks of the pre-campaign, and its chances of reaching first place would have been reduced. The reading takes on special importance because, before the accident, some polls had recorded a partial recovery for the Socialists, although most private surveys continued to place the Partido Popular ahead.
The situation would be especially complicated in Andalusia, where the PSOE could register its worst historical result in a general election, according to the estimation released. This is one of the key territories for the Socialists, both for its electoral weight and for its historical importance within the organization. In the 2023 general election, the party obtained 33.5% of the vote and 21 deputies in Andalusia, compared with the 25 seats and 36.4% of the votes won by the PP. A new setback would widen the Socialist difficulties in a community that for decades was one of its main strongholds.
This scenario comes, moreover, after the Andalusian regional elections of last May 17, when the Socialist candidacy led by María Jesús Montero obtained 28 seats, its worst historical result in the regional Parliament. Nevertheless, regional and general election results respond to different dynamics, so they cannot be directly transferred from one contest to another. The scale of the alleged setback of the PSOE in Andalusia remains to be known through published provincial estimates that allow a comparison with previous elections.
The PP could surpass the 137 seats of 2023 and Vox would double its representation
The other major new development in the estimates released affects the Partido Popular of Alberto Núñez Feijóo, which could improve on its result in the general elections of July 23, 2023. In that contest, the conservatives won 137 deputies and 33.1% of the vote, becoming the leading political force, although without gathering the support needed to form a Government.
So far, a good part of the polls published for 29N placed the PP below that number of seats, despite keeping it in first place. The DatosRTVE average updated last October 26, before the accident, attributed to the populars 133 deputies, four fewer than in 2023, while PSOE appeared with 107 and Vox with 66. The sum of PP and Vox thus reached 199 seats, far exceeding the 176 needed for an absolute majority in the Congress.
The possibility that Feijóo now surpasses the 2023 result would mean a modification of that trend, although a new seat projection has still not been released that would make it possible to specify the extent of the improvement. In parallel, Vox would maintain a growth forecast sufficient to double its current 33 deputies, although the GAD3 analysis places its vote share below 19%. This latest estimate differs slightly from other averages published before Urda, which placed Santiago Abascal's formation at around 19% or a few tenths above.
Feijóo's formation also appears in first place in Ceuta, where the analysis points to a favorable outlook for the PP. However, since this is a constituency that elects a single deputy, small differences in votes can determine the allocation of the seat. Therefore, the statement that the populars will win with certainty must be understood as an assessment of the source and not as a guaranteed result.
Young voters and the increase in turnout, keys to the electoral scenario
Among the trends that were already being observed before the railway accident is an increase in voter turnout and a greater inclination toward right-wing forces among certain segments of the young electorate. This combination could have important consequences for the parliamentary allocation, especially in an election in which parties are trying to mobilize voters who did not participate in previous elections.
The data from the Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS) corresponding to October already showed a prominent presence of Vox among voters under 25 years of age. According to the study, 19% of young people between 18 and 24 years old expressed their intention to vote for the PSOE, compared with 15.6% who opted for Vox and 11.9% who leaned toward the PP. Another 14.8% declared themselves undecided, which reflects the importance of a sector of the electorate whose preferences still present a considerable margin of uncertainty.
In Spain, more than 3.2 million people between 18 and 24 years old are called to the polls on November 29, a bracket that represents approximately 8.4% of the electoral roll. Although the polls show relevant differences among the parties, it is still to be determined how many of these citizens will finally go to vote and how their support will be distributed. For this reason, the growth in participation and the weight of the youth vote constitute factors to observe, but they do not on their own allow the result of the elections to be established.
Frente Amplio and Podemos face the setback of the political space of Sumar
Another of the identified trends is the loss of representation of the political space that ran under the Sumar label in the 2023 elections. The reorganization of the alternative left has given rise to new candidacies and territorial agreements, with Frente Amplio as the main coalition of that space and Podemos running separately in much of the territory.
In the previous general elections, Sumar obtained 31 deputies and 12.1% of the votes, a representation that current polls do not attribute in an equivalent way to the new candidacies. The average published by DatosRTVE before the accident of Urda placed Frente Amplio at 12 seats and Podemos at one, although the comparison must take into account that some formations are now presenting themselves through different agreements in certain constituencies.
The setback of this space would complicate the possibilities of building a parliamentary majority alternative to PP and Vox, although the results of the nationalist and pro-independence parties and the possible agreements after the elections must still be taken into account. The territorial distribution of the vote will also be decisive, especially in the provinces where the last seats are decided by small differences.
ERC could surpass ten deputies and EH Bildu leads the result in the Basque Country
The analysis also points to relevant changes among nationalist and pro-independence formations. Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya could surpass ten seats in the Congress, a figure higher than the seven deputies it obtained in the 2023 general elections and the eight attributed to it by the DatosRTVE average published before the accident.
The evolution of ERC would be one of the most notable moves outside the main state-wide parties, especially for its ability to alter the parliamentary distribution in Catalonia and its possible participation in future majorities in the Congress. However, the published analysis does not include a provincial projection that would make it possible to verify how those seats would be distributed.
In the Basque Country, EH Bildu also appears as one of the forces that could improve their results, until becoming, according to this estimate, the most voted candidacy in the community. In the 2023 general elections, the abertzale formation obtained six deputies, the same as the PNV, while PSE-EE was the leading force in number of votes and obtained five seats.
The possibility of Bildu reaching first place would represent a relevant change compared with that election, although, as with ERC, more detailed territorial data will be needed to assess the scope of these estimates.
PP and Vox aim for an enhanced majority in the Senate after their electoral agreement
The electoral battle of 29N is not limited to the Congress of Deputies. The Senate can also register important shifts after the agreement reached last October 26 between PP and Vox, a strategy designed to concentrate support in certain constituencies and prevent the division of the vote from harming both formations.
The pact comes in response to the agreement signed by PSOE and Frente Amplio to run together for the Senate under the name "Senado de Progreso". Both strategies seek to take advantage of the particularities of the Upper House electoral system, where the concentration of votes can be decisive in obtaining representation.
In the case of PP and Vox, the understanding contemplates that the populares do not present candidacies in Gipuzkoa, Girona and Tarragona, while Vox renounces doing so in certain constituencies, among them Cádiz, Valencia, Castellón and several insular territories. In other provinces, both formations will adjust the number of candidates with the aim of facilitating a more favorable distribution of the seats.
According to the estimates released during the presentation of the agreement, PP and Vox aspire to obtain between 125 and 140 directly elected senators, to which the representatives designated by the autonomous parliaments would have to be added. The electoral analysis of GAD3 even raises the possibility that the bloc reaches a "majority plus," understood as a reinforced majority higher than an absolute one.
The difference is not small. A majority of three-fifths of the Senate, equivalent to 160 seats if the Chamber maintains its composition of 266 members, would allow the bloc to exert greater weight in certain institutional appointments that require qualified support. However, reaching that threshold will depend on the definitive distribution of elected and appointed senators, so it cannot be taken for granted before the vote.
What has really changed after the Urda accident
The main question is to determine what part of the new electoral scenario responds to trends that were already present before Wednesday and what movements can be attributed to the events that followed. The analysis released this Saturday clearly distinguishes both moments: the growth of Vox, the increase in participation, the advance of certain territorial parties and the setback of the alternative left would be trends prior to the accident, while the deterioration of the PSOE's expectations and a possible improvement of the PP compared to 2023 would constitute the most recent novelties.
The distinction is important because electoral estimates reflect behaviors that can vary for multiple reasons. The Urda railway accident has placed the management of infrastructure, transport safety and political responsibilities at the center of the national debate, but the temporal coincidence between the tragedy and a change in respondents' answers does not by itself demonstrate that there is a causal relationship.
To determine the magnitude of the alleged shift, it would be necessary to know how many interviews were conducted before and after the accident, how the responses have changed, what margin of error the results present and whether the differences are maintained in new measurements. For the moment, the information released by the head of GAD3 makes it possible to know the interpretation of his consultancy, but not to have a complete and publicly verifiable electoral estimate after October 28.
Four weeks until 29N: the campaign enters its decisive phase
The general elections will be held on Sunday, November 29, so there are still four weeks left in which the parties will have to define their messages, present their proposals and face the main debates of the campaign. The Urda tragedy has altered political agendas and has placed new issues at the center of current affairs, but events remain pending that could also influence voters' preferences.
"The greatest change in vote takes place during the legislature, but campaigns increasingly decide more votes," Michavila has pointed out, recalling that the final stretch can modify the trends observed during the previous months. That statement takes on special relevance in a contest in which there is still an important number of undecided voters and in which the territorial distribution of support will be decisive in converting vote percentages into parliamentary representation.
For now, the polls published before the accident placed the PP mainly as the leading force, Vox with options to double its seats and the PSOE below its 2023 results. The novelty of the analysis released this Saturday is the possibility that that gap may have widened during the days after the railway tragedy, especially due to the alleged worsening of Socialist expectations.
The next publication of polls with fieldwork after October 28 will make it possible to verify whether that change is reflected in the estimates of other polling firms and whether it is maintained at the start of the campaign. Until then, the possible electoral shift after Urda must be interpreted as a first signal attributed to a polling analysis, not as a confirmed result nor as a definitive forecast of 29N.