The first results of the United States legislative elections point to an improvement in the performance of the Democratic Party compared with the 2024 presidential elections, although the vote count is still in an early phase and does not yet allow determining who will control Congress. The opposition has managed to retain two important seats in the Senate, those of Georgia and Virginia, while the count begins in other key states for the distribution of power in Washington.
The first counts in the East Coast states suggest Democratic gains in elections for both chambers. For its part, Associated Press (AP) has already confirmed the reelection of Jon Ossoff in Georgia and of Mark Warner in Virginia, two victories that allow the party to defend fundamental positions before trying to take seats from the Republicans.
These results come on a day marked by the discontent of many voters with the state of the economy and the management of Donald Trump, although the first Democratic victories do not yet imply a change in parliamentary majorities.
Georgia and Virginia deliver the first major victories to the Democrats
In Georgia, Jon Ossoff has secured a second term in the Senate after defeating the Republican congressman Mike Collins, backed by Trump. The contest had drawn special attention because Republicans considered this seat one of their opportunities to expand the majority in the Upper House.
Ossoff’s victory is especially significant because it concerns a state that Trump won in the 2024 presidential elections. His reelection prevents Republicans from regaining a seat that Democrats won in 2021 and that they needed to keep in order to keep their majority options open.
Also in Virginia, Mark Warner has renewed his term after defeating the Republican Bert Mizusawa. The veteran senator, who previously was governor of the state, will thus continue in the Upper House for another six years.
Associated Press has also awarded the Democrats the victory of Debbie Wasserman Schultz in a district in Florida for the House of Representatives. The congresswoman, former chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee, has secured reelection after changing districts as a result of the modification of the electoral map.
The six Republican states that can determine the Senate
The opposition needs something more than retaining its seats in order to regain control of the Senate. The Republicans began the election day with a majority of 53 senators versus the 47 of the Democratic bloc, which includes independents who cooperate in Parliament with the party.
To reach the 51 seats necessary to control the Upper House, the Democrats must achieve a net gain of four seats. A split of 50 senators for each bloc would allow the Republicans to keep control thanks to the tie-breaking vote of Vice President JD Vance.
Attention is focused in particular on Maine, Texas, Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Kansas, where the Democrats aim to win seats currently held by Republicans. To that list is added North Carolina, another of the decisive states in the fight for the majority.
In Maine, Republican Senator Susan Collins is trying to keep her seat in a state that backed Kamala Harris in the most recent presidential election. In Ohio, former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is seeking to return to Washington against Republican Jon Husted.
Texas also concentrates a large part of the attention. Democrat James Talarico is competing against Ken Paxton, the state's attorney general and a Republican candidate backed by Trump, in an election that could alter a long streak of Republican victories in state contests.
In Alaska, Iowa and Kansas, the Democrats also seek to take advantage of discontent with the Trump Administration to compete for seats that, in previous elections, had seemed more secure for Republicans.
Michigan, the other seat Democrats need to defend
In addition to holding Georgia and Virginia, Democrats must pay special attention to Michigan, where the withdrawal of Senator Gary Peters has opened a race for his successor.
Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed, who has defended during the campaign the implementation of universal health coverage, faces Republican Mike Rogers. Losing this seat would force Democrats to secure an additional victory in one of the states currently controlled by their adversaries.
The Michigan race is therefore one of the key pieces for interpreting the chances of a shift in Senate majority, along with the results that will be known in the most hotly contested Republican states.
Discontent with Trump goes along with the first results
The first election polls released by Associated Press reflect an electorate that is especially critical of the country’s economic situation. Approximately three out of every four voters say that the economy is going through a bad time, while around eight out of ten state that inflation has caused significant or moderate financial difficulties in their homes.
Discontent with the cost of living and concern about the country’s political direction have taken a prominent place in the campaign. However, these data describe voters’ views and do not, on their own, allow calculating the gains each party might achieve in Congress.
The House of Representatives is also at stake. Republicans entered the elections with a narrow majority and Democrats need a net gain of three seats to regain control.
For now, victories in Georgia and Virginia strengthen Democratic positions, but they do not amount to a change of majority. The extent of the advances pointed to by EFE will depend on the results in the most competitive states and, especially, on whether the Democrats manage to wrest seats from the Republicans that they controlled before the elections.