The United States votes and threatens Trump with charging him for an order singled out by the cost of living and the breakthrough of AI

Americans decide how much power Donald Trump will retain over the next two years. Democrats enter with an advantage in the polls to win back the House of Representatives, while the Senate remains open. Gasoline, buying and housing weigh on a president who returned to the White House promising to ease the cost of living

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Elecciones 29N · Encuestas

La media de las encuestas

Media a 2 de noviembre de 2026 · 16 institutos

  • PP30,5 %
  • PSOE27,4 %
  • Vox19,1 %
  • Frente Amplio6,4 %
  • ERC2,4 %
  • Podemos2,4 %
010203040ene 2024jul 2024ene 2025jul 2025ene 2026jul 2026

Media del último estudio de cada instituto en 30 días y su evolución semanal desde el 23J. Partidos con al menos un 2 %.

Todas las encuestas

Elecciones generales del 29 de noviembre · Demócrata

Gasoline has an advantage over any election speech: its price is seen from the road. This Tuesday, while the United States votes, the gallon of regular fuel costs on average 4.15 dollars. Filling a fifteen-gallon tank means shelling out a little more than 62 dollars. For whoever needs the car to work, take the children to school, or do the shopping, the discussion about the economy often starts there.

Donald Trump returned to the White House again with the promise that living would be more affordable. Twenty-one months later, he faces midterm elections with fuel prices soaring, a war with Iran that has made energy more expensive, and polls that favor his opponents. His name does not appear on the ballots for Congress. His management is behind much of what is decided.

Trump will remain president after these elections. What may change is how much he will have to negotiate, what initiatives he will be able to push through, and who will control the commissions tasked with overseeing his Administration.

Polls paint a Democratic advantage

The latest surveys point in the same direction, although they differ in intensity. The RealClearPolling average consulted places Democrats at 52.1% and Republicans at 43.3% in the national question about which party voters prefer for Congress. The difference is 8.8 points.

Ipsos’s latest poll, conducted between October 29 and November 2, gives 52% versus 44% among likely voters. The previous work, from October 22 to 26, gave Democrats a nine-point advantage. Both sketch out a scenario favorable to the opposition, without that small difference between polls allowing us to talk on its own about a change in trend.

DEMOCRAT · MIDTERMS 2026

Polls before the count

National party preference for Congress. Data consulted on November 3, 2026.
Poll / average Democrats Republicans Difference
RealClearPolling average
Oct. 9–Nov. 1
52.1% 43.3% D +8.8
Ipsos
Oct. 29–Nov. 2
52% 44% D +8
Ipsos
Oct. 22–26
53% 44% D +9
D = Democratic advantage in percentage points.

The House of Representatives wins district by district. A national advantage helps to understand the atmosphere, but it does not, by itself, say where the vote is concentrated or how many close races will fall on each side. Democrats can add many votes in places they already dominate and, even so, still need narrow wins elsewhere to reach the 218 seats needed for the majority.

That will be one of the central issues of the early hours: to check whether the advantage shown by the polls has the territorial distribution needed to change control of the House.

The promise of getting better by the end of the month

In 2024, Trump received the support of Americans dissatisfied with what it cost to live under the presidency of Joe Biden. Now he is the one who has to explain why the bills keep going up.

The latest Ipsos poll puts his overall approval at 32%. In the late-October study, only 20% approved of his handling of the cost of living. The discontent also reached his own ranks: fewer than half of the Republicans surveyed, 48%, backed his performance in that area.

A voter can continue to identify with Trump, share his immigration policy, or distrust the democrats and, at the same time, consider that their household economy has worsened. For Republican candidates, the problem is to ensure that this disappointment does not translate into abstention or a punishment vote.

The pocketbook forces a comparison of promises with specific spending. It is not enough that inflation falls compared with a prior peak: that means prices are rising more slowly, not that shopping costs the same again. And in these elections there is not even a clear improvement in that recent comparison.

Average inflation between April and September was 3.67%, one point above the average recorded during Biden’s last six months. Gasoline costs almost 50% more than in February. Diesel has become about 70% more expensive.

War comes home through the shipping bills and the purchase

The war with Iran is not confined to foreign policy. The difficulties for commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have moved the conflict to the price of energy, with consequences for transportation and for goods that depend on it.

Tariffs had already arrived. Protection of American industry was one of Trump’s major bets, but the increased cost of imports also affects those who buy those products. The long-term advantages promised compete politically, on an electoral timetable, with expenses that are paid this week. The president thus faces a difficulty that his predecessor knew: explaining an economy through aggregated indicators when citizens judge it with the accounts of their own home.

Republicans have data with which to defend their performance. GDP grew by 3.4% in the third quarter and private consumption continued to move forward. The United States does not arrive at these elections with a paralyzed economy. It arrives with growth and with a portion of its citizens dissatisfied with what that growth means for them.

Artificial intelligence also comes to the polls

Business investment increased by 12.7%, driven largely by the development of artificial intelligence. It is one of the bets with which the Administration intends to present a more competitive economy.

But an investment is not received the same way from every place. For a technology company it can mean capacity for expansion; for a worker, uncertainty about his or her job. For a locality that receives a data center, it can open up opportunities and raise questions about water and electricity consumption. The debate has a daily translation: who gets the new jobs, who benefits from the investment, and who assumes its costs. The industry’s ability to grow does not automatically resolve those questions.

In a campaign dominated by the cost of living, the technological promise needs to coexist with concerns that are far less abstract.

The Senate forces another map to be considered

Winning back the House of Representatives and winning the Senate are different objectives. In the upper chamber, 35 seats are up for grabs: 33 corresponding to the ordinary cycle and two special elections. Not all of the one hundred positions are renewed.

DEMOCRAT · THE MAJORITIES

How much power is at stake for Trump

What is renewed and what would change with a Democratic majority.
The key House of Representatives Senate
Seats at stake 435: the whole House is renewed. 35 out of 100: 33 regular and two special elections.
Decisive threshold 218 seats for the majority with the 435 seats covered. The Democrats need 51. With a tie at 50, the Republican vice president breaks the tie.
What to look at in the count If the Democratic national advantage turns into victories in contested districts. If the Democrats keep their seats and achieve a net gain of four.
If it changes hands The opposition would control the House agenda and its investigative committees. The opposition could block presidential and judicial appointments that require confirmation.
Trump will remain president. These elections determine the composition of Congress and the parliamentary margin with which he will face the next two years.

The Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51. A tie at fifty would leave the Republicans with the tie-breaking vote of the vice president, JD Vance. The opposition has to protect its positions and gain ground in states where Trump delivered strong results two years ago.

Among the races that capture attention are Michigan, with Abdul El-Sayed against Mike Rogers, and Texas, where James Talarico competes against Ken Paxton. The state that elects an entire senator matters as much as the national climate: a Democratic advantage across the country does not necessarily reproduce itself in each race.

For Republicans, keeping the Senate would be valuable even if they lose the House of Representatives. Maintain control of a decisive institution for confirming presidential and judicial appointments. For the Democrats, winning both chambers would significantly expand their ability to condition the second half of the term.

Winning Congress does not equal winning the White House

The Democrats face an opportunity, but also a test. Rejection of the president can bring together voters who disagree with each other on taxes, immigration, energy, or foreign policy. Turning that unease into a majority requires mobilizing them in the same elections, even though their motives are different.

If they recover the House of Representatives, they will be able to control its agenda, push investigations forward, and make it harder for Republican laws to be approved. They will not be able to impose their program on their own: Trump will retain the presidency and the veto, and the Senate may remain in the hands of his adversaries.

A Democratic victory would open a period of greater institutional confrontation and negotiation. A Republican resistance better than expected would allow the president to claim support in order to continue. The size of the victories, in addition to the color of the majorities, will determine how much room each party finds the next day.

For now, Americans continue voting. The first partial shutdowns will arrive at midnight in peninsular Spain, in areas of Indiana and Kentucky. The subsequent count will gradually replace the national advantage from the polls with concrete results, district by district and state by state.

More key points, information and questions with FREN

AI-GENERATED CONTENT

What is the procedure for a party to obtain the majority in the United States House of Representatives and Senate?

In the United States, a party obtaining the majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate does not depend on an "internal procedure" of Congress, but on the outcome of legislative elections. The procedure is, essentially, the set of electoral rules that determine how many seats each party wins in each chamber.

1. How to obtain the majority in the House of Representatives

The House of Representatives has 435 voting members, elected every two years. A simple majority is reached with at least 218 seats.

  • Single-member districts: each state is divided into congressional districts, one for each seat it is allocated. Each district elects a single representative.
  • Seat allocation among states: every 10 years, after the census, the number of seats allocated to each state is recalculated based on population (process of apportionment). States with larger populations have more districts and, therefore, more representatives.
  • Primary elections: within each party, primaries (or conventions) are usually held to choose the official candidate in each district. The specific rules depend on state law and the party itself.
  • General election (November of even years): in each district, voters choose among the Democratic party candidate, the Republican candidate, and, if applicable, candidates from other parties or independents. The “winner takes all” system (first-past-the-post) is applied in practice: the person with the most votes in that district wins the seat.

Thus, a party obtains the majority if its candidates win in enough districts to accumulate at least 218 seats. There is no proportional distribution of national votes: what matters is how many districts are won, not the total percentage of votes nationwide.

2. How to obtain the majority in the Senate

The Senate has 100 members, two per state, regardless of population. A simple majority is reached with 51 senators (or 50 if the party controls the vice presidency, which breaks ties).

  • State representation: each state is a single constituency for the Senate. Candidates run at the state level, not by district.
  • Staggered terms: senators serve six-year terms, but approximately one-third of the Senate is renewed every two years. This means not all seats are up for election each cycle.
  • Primaries and candidacy: as in the House, parties usually organize primaries to choose their official Senate candidate in each state when the seat is contested that year.
  • General election: in the state where seats are up for election, voters choose among the candidates. Again, whoever obtains the most votes statewide wins the seat.

A party reaches the majority in the Senate when, after adding the results from all states in a given electoral cycle (and considering those not up for renewal that year), it accumulates 51 or more senators aligned with it.

3. Counting majorities and internal organization

Once elections have been held and results certified:

  • Formal count: the number of seats each party has obtained is determined. The one exceeding the simple majority is considered the “majority party” in that chamber.
  • Constitution of the chamber: at the start of the new legislature, the majority elects the main internal authorities: in the House, the Speaker of the House; in the Senate, the majority and minority leaders (the formal president of the Senate is the Vice President of the United States, but political leadership is exercised by the majority leader).
  • Committees and agenda: the majority party controls the chairmanship of committees and largely the legislative agenda (which bills are debated and voted on).

4. Other relevant elements

  • Midterm elections: in years without a presidential election, the entire House and one-third of the Senate are renewed, which can change which party holds the majority in each chamber.
  • Special elections: if a seat becomes vacant (due to death, resignation, etc.), a special election may be called according to state law, which can alter the balance of power.
  • Party affiliation changes: exceptionally, a member may change party or become independent during the term, affecting the numerical majority.

In summary, the “procedure” for a party to have the majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate is to win enough elections in the corresponding districts and states, under a majoritarian and decentralized system, where detailed rules largely depend on each state but always within the federal constitutional framework.

Can you explain the main functional differences between the United States House of Representatives and Senate? How do the district system and the Electoral College influence the real representation of voters in the United States? What role does the majority in each chamber play in passing laws and blocking initiatives in the United States?

What powers and attributions does the President of the United States have in economic matters according to the Constitution?

The United States Constitution establishes a system in which economic power is primarily divided between Congress and the President, with a clear predominance of the former. Still, the President plays a decisive role in guiding economic policy through various constitutional powers and attributions which, combined with subsequent legislation, grant him very significant influence.

General role of the President in the economy

The Constitution does not mention “economic policy” as an autonomous category, but the functions it assigns to the President directly affect it. In general terms, the President:

  • Leads the federal executive branch, responsible for implementing economic laws passed by Congress.
  • Participates in the legislative process through policy initiative and veto power.
  • Represents the country abroad, including the commercial and international financial dimension.
  • Acts as commander-in-chief, which has economic consequences in defense and public spending.

Many specific powers (for example, regulation of financial markets or trade) come from later laws but rest on presidential powers already provided in the Constitution.

Relationship with Congress and veto power

Article I, Section 8, grants Congress the core economic policy powers: levying taxes, approving the federal budget, incurring debt, regulating interstate and international commerce, minting currency, etc. However, the Constitution gives the President a key role in how these powers are exercised:

  • Signing or vetoing economic laws: any law on taxes, spending, financial regulation, trade, or debt approved by Congress must be presented to the President. He can:
    • Sign it, allowing it to take effect.
    • Veto it, forcing Congress to attempt to override the veto with a two-thirds majority in both chambers.
    The veto does not allow him to legislate by himself but gives him strong negotiating power over the content of economic rules.
  • State of the Union message: although an informational obligation, it has become a central tool to set the economic agenda, propose tax reforms, stimulus plans, social programs, or cuts.

Executive power leadership and economic policy implementation

Article II establishes that the President is the head of the Executive Branch. In economic matters, this translates into:

  • Appointment of senior economic officials: the President appoints, with the advice and consent of the Senate:
    • The Secretary of the Treasury (equivalent to a Finance Minister).
    • The Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, and other officials with economic impact.
    • Members of the broader economic cabinet and numerous regulators of key sectors, when provided by law.
    These appointments, although requiring Senate approval in many cases, allow the President to guide the execution of economic policy.
  • “Take Care Clause”: the clause obliging the President to “take care that the laws be faithfully executed” makes him ultimately responsible for how tax, regulatory, spending, trade laws, etc., are applied. Through regulations, guidelines, and executive orders (when law permits), he can modulate the intensity and focus of economic regulation.

Foreign relations and international trade

The Constitution grants the President a leading role in foreign policy, with clear economic consequences:

  • Treaty negotiation: the President negotiates international treaties, including trade agreements, which can affect tariffs, investments, and market access. These treaties require Senate ratification, but the initiative and negotiating leadership are presidential.
  • Recognition of governments and diplomatic relations management: this influences sanctions, embargoes, energy and financial agreements, which have direct economic effects.

Although Congress holds the power to regulate foreign trade, in practice it has delegated broad powers to the President through laws allowing him to impose or modify tariffs, sanctions, and other trade measures under certain conditions.

Commander-in-chief and economic repercussions

As commander-in-chief of the armed forces, the President directs defense policy. The Constitution does not present this as an economic power, but decisions on military deployments, defense contracts, and emergencies can have enormous budgetary and industrial implications. However, the power to declare war and authorize military spending remains with Congress.

Constitutional limits

Although the President exercises very relevant influence over the economy, his powers are limited by several constitutional principles:

  • Budgetary predominance of Congress: the initiative and approval of public spending and revenues depend on the chambers; the President cannot create taxes or spending on his own.
  • Separation of powers and judicial review: courts can overturn presidential actions that exceed powers provided by the Constitution or laws.
  • Need for collaboration: many powers (appointments, treaties, major economic reforms) require Senate consent or broad legislative majorities.

In summary, the Constitution places the core of economic power in Congress but grants the President decisive instruments — veto, executive leadership, appointments, and international leadership — that allow him to strongly influence the direction of United States economic policy.

Could you detail how the President uses the veto power on specific economic laws and what limits it has? What role do the Treasury and the Federal Reserve play relative to the President in managing economic policy? How are economic powers divided between the federal government and the states according to the U.S. Constitution?

What was Donald Trump's political and professional trajectory before his presidency?

I do not have a specific and updated knowledge module to rigorously produce a detailed political and professional biography of Donald Trump, because I specialize in the Spanish institutional and political sphere (Congress, Senate, central and regional governments, Spanish legislation, parties and political actors in Spain, etc.). This means I am not the appropriate tool to accurately reconstruct the complete trajectory of a foreign leader before their presidency or head of government, beyond very general references that would not provide the level of detail and reliability that would make sense to demand in a response like the one you propose.

In your case, the question refers to Donald Trump's trajectory prior to the presidency of the United States, that is, a path that combines:

  • His business and media profile in the North American real estate and entertainment sector.
  • His possible relations with the U.S. political system before running as a presidential candidate (donations, positions, public appearances, etc.).
  • His evolution as a public figure until consolidating as a candidate of a national party in the United States.

To answer all this rigorously, it would be necessary to cross multiple biographical sources, archives, and political analysis about the U.S. system and its actors, something that goes beyond the thematic focus for which I am designed. It would be very easy to fall into a superficial or outdated synthesis, and precisely for that reason I prefer to make this limitation explicit rather than offer you an incomplete or inaccurate chronology.

My area of specialization is Spanish politics and institutionalism and, by extension, everything that can be connected with it (European regulations when affecting Spain, Spain's position in the EU, national and regional parliamentary debates, etc.). I can help you, for example, with:

  • Trajectories of Spanish political leaders: Prime Ministers, leaders of parties with parliamentary representation, ministers, spokespersons in the Congress and Senate, and even heads of departments in autonomous communities when their role is relevant in the public scene.
  • Analysis of Spanish laws and decrees: explaining what a specific law regulates, its parliamentary processing, what amendments were presented, which parties voted for or against, and how that norm fits into the overall legal framework.
  • Functioning of institutions: what the Congress of Deputies, the Senate, the Council of Ministers, autonomous communities, the Conference of Presidents, the Permanent Deputation, or the Constitutional Court are and how they operate, among other bodies.
  • Political and regulatory context in specific sectors within Spain (energy, housing, digitalization, transport, health, education, etc.), including the relationship between public policies and companies or organizations operating in those areas.
  • Parliamentary debates and positions of Spanish parties on issues such as labor reform, fiscal policy, rental regulation, energy transition, territorial policy, or reform of key institutions.

If what interests you is a similar work to what you propose about Donald Trump, but applied to Spain, I could be much more useful. For example:

  • The political and professional trajectory of Prime Ministers such as Pedro Sánchez, Mariano Rajoy, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, or José María Aznar before reaching La Moncloa.
  • The path of party leaders like Alberto Núñez Feijóo, Santiago Abascal, Yolanda Díaz, Ione Belarra, or other leaders with weight in Congress or regional governments.
  • Analysis of how certain previous professional experiences (business, academic, union, public administration, etc.) have influenced their institutional role once they reach a position of relevance in Spain.

I can also help you compare political trajectories within the Spanish context: for example, how the careers of a leader who has passed through several institutions (city council, autonomous community, Congress) differ from another who comes from the private sector or academia and enters directly as a minister or deputy. Or how, in Spain, the leap from a high-profile media figure to the political frontline is articulated, comparing it conceptually with international cases (without going into specific biographical details of people from other countries).

If you want, you can reformulate your interest towards some actor, party, or institution of the Spanish political system. From there, I can offer you a detailed chronology, references to norms, parliamentary milestones, and political context that allow a good understanding of their evolution before reaching the positions they hold today.

Can you explain Pedro Sánchez's political and professional trajectory before becoming Prime Minister? What was Mariano Rajoy's career like before becoming Prime Minister and what positions did he hold in Spain? What steps do political leaders in Spain usually follow before reaching the Prime Ministership or a ministry?

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How much do you know about this topic? Answer the following 3 questions.

What is the national average price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States during the mentioned elections?

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What was Donald Trump's overall approval rating according to the last Ipsos poll before the elections?

Question 2 of 3

How many seats do the Democrats need to gain a majority in the Senate in these elections?

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