Ukraine has reached an understanding with the United States to put an end to attacks against a strategic infrastructure: the Russian terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), essential for the market exit of crude oil from Kazakhstan. As part of the agreement, specific communication channels have also been established so that commercial shipping companies can transmit information and promote safe transit.
The pact was forged in talks held on July 31 between senior officials of the U.S. Administration and representatives from Kiev, and represents a possible significant advance to restore the flow of oil in the area. In recent weeks, several attacks against vessels in the vicinity of the CPC terminal in Novorossiysk, Russia, had diminished activity.
The CPC terminal is key for the export of Kazakh oil, given that this Central Asian country has few alternative export routes. Typically, the consortium channels about 2% of the world's crude supply, and numerous European refineries rely heavily on these volumes.
In the context of the war triggered by the Russian invasion in 2022, Ukraine has intensified its actions against Russian energy ports, including attacks on vessels at the CPC terminal. These operations have caused disruptions in loading and partial paralysis of activity, as many shipowners have chosen to avoid the area.
All of this occurs in a context where the global market can barely absorb new disruptions in crude supply, at a time when the war in Iran and the reduction of flows through the Strait of Hormuz are already keeping part of the oil out of circulation.
The rising cost of crude and fuels is having effects on the global economy and has contributed to the increase in prices at gas stations in the United States ahead of the November midterm elections, in which economic concerns of voters are expected to have a decisive weight.
According to U.S. sources cited by Bloomberg, Ukraine has committed not to attack the infrastructure of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium or non-Russian vessels destined for the terminal, as long as such vessels are not subject to Ukrainian sanctions or carrying Russian cargo.
Kiev is also providing guidelines to shipping companies to specify which vessels could be military targets. According to the understanding, the sources explained, the ships cannot be subject to Ukrainian sanctions, must not carry Russian oil or other cargo, and cannot be owned by Russian individuals or entities.
"Ukraine maintains close contact with U.S. companies and the Trump administration on all matters related to the security of commercial maritime transport," indicated another person familiar with the matter.
For now, it is unclear whether this framework of guarantees will be enough to fully recover the usual volumes or dispel the fears of transporters, after previous agreements to protect transits failed to prevent incidents. Some companies that had sent Ukraine lists of ships that should not be attacked saw how some of those vessels were still hit.
However, U.S. sources point out that, after the recent attacks, Ukraine presented more detailed and verifiable commitments at different levels of its administration. The Ukrainian government established a specific team to coordinate these issues and set the necessary points of contact to ensure safe passage, the official added.
A first series of drone attacks during the week of July 20 led to commercial vessels chartered by U.S. companies temporarily suspending cargo operations at the CPC terminal. Although shipments resumed on July 27, two days later several commercial vessels loading at the facility were again attacked by drones.
Despite the fact that shipments have resumed, they remain below usual levels due to drone attacks near Novorossiysk. Russian authorities often halt cargo operations when drones are detected at the terminals. However, not all of these warnings result in an effective interruption of the loads, as explained by a U.S. official.
The risks associated with operating at the terminal have translated into increased freight costs for tankers willing to navigate to that point. Only a small group of shipowners currently agrees to go, as it involves making a stop at a Russian port, and several have decided not to do so in light of recent incidents.
According to data from the Baltic Exchange in London, the earnings of ships transporting crude from CPC to the Mediterranean exceeded 400,000 dollars per day on Friday, the highest record to date for that route.
Sources close to the situation indicate that the latest disruptions suggest a decrease of around one third in CPC Blend exports this month. However, there remains some uncertainty about these estimates, as they do not include the July shipments postponed to August, and new incidents could further delay some of the shipments planned for August.