The data the most striking aspect of the survey is the distance between that majority preference and the territorial distribution plan defended by the Government. Only 8.9% of those surveyed agree with distributing these minors among the autonomous communities, while 10.4% believe they should remain in Ceuta with extraordinary economic resources for the city.
The survey arrives amid a migration crisis in Ceuta, where El Español estimates at least 1,100 unaccompanied minors remain in the city, although some associations raise the estimate to nearly 5,000. The Minister of Youth and Childhood, Sira Rego, visited Ceuta this Friday and noted a change in profile compared to previous crises: more minors under 13 years old and more girls among those who arrived in this wave.
80% support the return to Morocco
The main political conclusion of the survey is that the return to Morocco appears as the option with the greatest social support.
SocioMétrica asks about the possibility that the minors return to Morocco to reunite with their families, even if it were necessary to promote regulatory changes to make it possible. 80% support that option.
The formulation is important because it does not limit itself to asking about immediate management in Ceuta. It proposes a fundamental solution: that Spain and Morocco arrange for the return of the minors when there are family, administrative, and legal guarantees.
The result spans almost the entire electoral map. It is not concentrated solely among right-wing voters. It is also majority among socialist voters and among voters of nationalist and independentist parties.
The PSOE data changes the political reading
77.6% of PSOE voters support the return of minors to Morocco, according to SocioMétrica.
This percentage makes the issue something broader than a demand from the PP or Vox. The survey indicates that a very large part of the socialist electorate shares the idea that the priority option should be the return to Morocco, not the distribution among autonomous communities.
The management of unaccompanied migrant minors is usually divided in ideological terms, but the survey points to a much more transversal consensus when asked about the return with their families.
Only 8.9% support distribution among communities
The plan to divert minors to other autonomous communities is the option with the least support in the survey.
Only 8.9% of those surveyed support distributing them among territories, as the Government proposes to alleviate the situation in Ceuta.
The measure clashes with the resistance of several autonomous communities, which claim saturation of their reception systems. The Attorney General of the State, Teresa Peramato, has announced instructions to the delegated prosecutors to act against the autonomous governments that refuse to host minors from Ceuta.
The political clash, therefore, has two planes. One administrative, due to the reception capacity. And another social, because the solution of territorial distribution appears far from being majority among those surveyed.
Sumar and Podemos prefer more than others that they stay in Ceuta
The option for minors to remain in Ceuta with extraordinary resources receives the support of 10.4% of the total surveyed.
It is a minority position in the national total, but it has more strength among voters of Sumar and Podemos. In that space, support rises to 38.4%, according to the SocioMétrica survey.
This data reflects a relevant division within the left bloc. While a large majority of PSOE voters support the return to Morocco, voters of Sumar and Podemos show a greater inclination towards a reinforced reception solution in the autonomous city.
Morocco agrees to collaborate, but asks to eliminate obstacles
The diplomatic context also weighs in the survey.
According to El Español, Morocco has shown a willingness to collaborate for the minors to return to their country, as long as Spain eliminates the judicial and administrative obstacles that hinder the procedure.
This point is key because the return of minors cannot be treated as a collective or automatic expulsion. It requires a specific procedure, legal guarantees, and verification of the reception or reunification conditions.
Here enters the bilateral agreement signed by Spain and Morocco in Rabat on March 6, 2007, and published in the BOE in 2013. That text establishes a framework for cooperation for the prevention of irregular emigration of unaccompanied minors, their protection, and their concerted return.
The 2007 agreement demands protection and concerted return
The Spain-Morocco agreement does not speak of an automatic return.
The text published in the BOE establishes that cooperation between both countries must be based on respect for national legislation, international law, and the Convention on the Rights of the Child. It also states that the best interest of the child must be the basis of all action.
The agreement contemplates assisted return to the family or to a guardianship institution in the country of origin. In addition, it establishes that Spain and Morocco must collaborate to guarantee, in each case, effective family reunification or delivery to a guardianship institution.
That is why the survey measures a social and political preference, but does not resolve on its own the legal viability of each return. The procedure must be analyzed on a case-by-case basis.
The key word is "return," not collective expulsion
The distinction is relevant for a rigorous reading.
The return of unaccompanied migrant minors may be provided for in international agreements, but always linked to protection guarantees. Legislation and international agreements require preserving the best interest of the child.
This means that the solution cannot be posed merely as a problem of territorial distribution or border control. It also affects guardianship, identification, family location, and Morocco's real capacity to take care of the returned minors.
The survey shows that public opinion overwhelmingly leans towards returning to Morocco. The legal framework, however, requires that this return be orderly, guaranteeing, and agreed upon between both States.
A crisis with territorial impact
The immediate pressure falls on Ceuta, but the debate affects the entire State.
The autonomous city has temporarily enabled two public schools to care for the most vulnerable minors. The Government wants to activate transfers to the Peninsula as soon as possible, as explained by Minister Sira Rego during her visit.
The autonomous communities, for their part, maintain that their reception centers are already strained. That argument has turned the Ceuta crisis into a conflict of competencies, resources, and territorial responsibility.