Brazil goes to the polls with Flávio Bolsonaro ahead and Lula da Silva somewhat closer. The latest AtlasIntel poll for Bloomberg, published on Saturday, October 24, places the Liberal Party candidate at 50.8% of valid votes, compared to 49.2% for the president and candidate of the Workers' Party. The distance between the two is 1.6 percentage points.
Compared to the previous survey, Bolsonaro loses three tenths and Lula gains another three. The advantage thus decreases from 2.2 to 1.6 points, a narrowing that keeps the senator in first position within the estimate, but leaves the dispute for the Presidency open this Sunday, October 25.
The study collects responses from 4,990 people interviewed between October 18 and 23. AtlasIntel reports a margin of error of one percentage point, above the individual variations recorded between both surveys.
This is how the Atlas poll changes: Bolsonaro drops three tenths and Lula rises another three
In the previous study, Flávio Bolsonaro obtained 51.1% of valid votes and Lula, 48.9%. The new measurement brings the two candidates closer to the 50% threshold, without altering their order. The movement of each candidate is 0.3 points, but the difference between them decreases by double: 0.6 points.
| Candidate | Previous Poll | October 24 | Variation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro · PL | 51.1% | 50.8% | −0.3 points |
| Lula da Silva · PT | 48.9% | 49.2% | +0.3 points |
| Bolsonaro's Advantage | 2.2 points | 1.6 points | −0.6 points |
Source: AtlasIntel/Bloomberg. Percentages based on estimated valid votes, excluding blanks, nulls, and undecided. Variations are expressed in percentage points. These are data from a survey, not electoral results.
What the 1.6 point advantage means
Bolsonaro leads the central estimate of the poll. However, Bloomberg describes the scenario as a technical tie because the intervals of both candidates overlap when applying the reported margin of error.
This expression does not mean that both have exactly the same support or that their chances of winning are necessarily 50%. It indicates that the difference is sufficiently narrow to interpret the order shown by the poll with caution.
It cannot be concluded, just with these two measurements, that Lula is protagonizing a statistically accredited comeback. The three tenths that he advances and the three that his opponent retreats are small movements. The firm data is that the new estimate shows a smaller distance; demonstrating a trend requires analyzing the series and its uncertainty.
Total votes and valid votes: why different percentages appear
When all responses are included, Bolsonaro obtains 49.9% and Lula, 48.4%. The remaining 1.7% corresponds jointly to those who declare a blank vote, null vote, or do not know who to choose.
In the previous measurement, those percentages were 49.8% for Bolsonaro, 47.6% for Lula, and 2.6% for the rest of the responses. Therefore, both grow in total votes, although Lula does so more.
This explains why Bolsonaro can slightly rise in total votes and fall in valid votes. By excluding the responses that do not choose either of the two candidates, the base on which the percentage is calculated changes.
The remaining 1.7% should not be presented as a complete bag of undecided: it groups different categories, including people who express their intention to vote blank or null.
How the AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey was conducted
The fieldwork was carried out between October 18 and 23 through random digital recruitment, the methodology that the institute calls Atlas RDR.
| Indicator | Detail |
|---|---|
| Institute | AtlasIntel, for Bloomberg |
| Publication | October 24, 2026 |
| Fieldwork | From October 18 to 23, 2026 |
| Sample | 4,990 people |
| Method | Random digital recruitment · Atlas RDR |
| Declared margin of error | ±1 percentage point |
| Confidence level | 95% |
| Registration in the TSE | BR-06380/2026 |
Source: methodological information from AtlasIntel/Bloomberg. The margin of error does not equate to a guarantee on the final result.
When will it be known if Lula or Flávio Bolsonaro wins
The second round takes place this Sunday, October 25. Voting in Brazil occurs between 08:00 and 17:00 Brasília time, equivalent to 12:00 and 21:00 in mainland Spain after the switch to winter time. In the Canary Islands, it will be one hour less.
The TSE will begin to disseminate the results from 21:00 mainland time through its official results portal. There is no fixed time to know the winner: it will depend on the pace of the counting and the difference between both candidates.
The first data should not be compared directly with the survey as if they already represented the whole country. It will be necessary to check how much has been accounted for and which territories are still pending. The advantage that Atlas attributes to Bolsonaro and the approach of Lula will then be subjected to the definitive test of the votes.