The PSOE would obtain 113 deputies and Frente Amplio would achieve 14, according to the IMOP survey for El Confidencial published on October 23. The estimate improves by three seats the previous projection for each of these candidacies.
The Popular Party would remain at 123 representatives, while Vox would reach 72. In percentage of vote, the Populars would register 28.5%, compared to 27.1% of the socialists.
The sum of PSOE and Frente Amplio would reach 127 deputies. The survey graph attributes 195 seats to the right-wing bloc, above the 176 that mark the absolute majority in Congress.
Vote and seat estimation
| Party | Estimated vote | Seats |
|---|---|---|
| PP | 28.5% | 123 |
| PSOE | 27.1% | 113 |
| Vox | 20.0% | 72 |
| Frente Amplio | 8.9% | 14 |
| Podemos | 1.9% | 1 |
Evolution compared to the previous survey
The comparison with the previous IMOP delivery shows variations in the percentage of vote and in the estimated representation of the main candidacies.
| Party | October 9 | October 23 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 130 | 123 | −7¹ |
| PSOE | 110 | 113 | +3 |
| Vox | 70 | 72 | +2 |
| Frente Amplio / Sumar | 11 | 14 | +3 |
| ERC | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| EH Bildu | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| PNV | 4 | 5 | +1 |
| Junts | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| BNG | 3 | 2 | −1 |
| Podemos | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Coalición Canaria | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Adelante Andalucía | 1 | Pending² | — |
| UPN | 1 | Pending¹ | — |
Source: IMOP for El Confidencial, publications from October 9 and 23, 2026. ¹ The subtraction of the published figures of the PP is seven deputies, but the information presents a discrepancy regarding the inclusion of UPN. Its homogeneous comparison remains pending clarification. ² The text allows deducing one deputy for Adelante Andalucía, but it does not appear confirmed individually in the provided graph. A total is not offered while these data are pending.
Check the original IMOP survey in El Confidencial.
Check the average of DEMÓCRATA surveys and the tools of the general elections special to compare this survey with the set of studies.