A poll commissioned by Vox introduces a different scenario in the race toward the general elections of November 29: the PSOE would be the most-voted party, but PP and Vox together would retain an absolute majority. The poll, which The Objective has had access to, places the socialists at 29.6%, compared with 28.1% for the populars and 20.2% for Santiago Abascal's party.
The difference between winning the elections and gathering the support to govern thus returns to the center of the debate. The PSOE would obtain between 117 and 121 deputies; the PP, between 114 and 118; and Vox, between 67 and 71. The sum of the two right-wing parties would reach between 181 and 189 representatives, according to the published information.
The data has an important temporal limit: the 1,500 telephone interviews were conducted before the Urda railway accident. Its results describe the scenario prior to the tragedy and do not allow possible electoral consequences to be measured.
The PSOE leads the PP in votes, but the seat ranges overlap
The socialists lead the vote estimate by 1.5 points over the PP. In deputies, however, the intervals overlap: the popular maximum, 118, exceeds the socialist minimum, 117, by one seat.
This prevents the first parliamentary place from being presented as a closed result. Furthermore, the published information does not identify the polling company nor does it offer a complete technical sheet with which to assess the accuracy of that difference.
The political particularity of the study lies in its origin. It is a poll commissioned by Vox that combines a PSOE first in votes with a strengthened and decisive Abascal for an alternative majority.
Vox exceeds 20% and the right retains between five and thirteen seats of margin
The PP and Vox would add up to 48.3% of the estimated vote. Their joint projection, between 181 and 189 deputies, would leave the right between five and thirteen seats above the 176 of an absolute majority.
It is a different scenario from that of 23J in 2023. Then, the PP got 137 deputies and Vox, 33: together they reached 170. In this poll, the PP would fall back to 114-118, while Vox would rise to 67-71. Abascal’s growth would offset the loss of Popular representation.
Therefore, the Socialist lead in votes would not amount to a majority for Sánchez. Nor does the poll guarantee a specific Government: it presents an estimate of support and seats at the time the interviews were conducted.
Broad Front and Podemos would add up to between 13 and 15 deputies
Broad Front would obtain 6.2% of the vote and between 12 and 14 seats. Podemos, with 1.9%, would get one. Between both candidacies they would gather 8.1% and between 13 and 15 representatives.
Adelante Andalucía appears separately with two deputies. Among the territorial forces, the study assigns eight to ERC, five to Junts, between six and seven to EH Bildu and between three and four to the PNV. BNG would get one or two and Coalición Canaria, between zero and one. SALF would reach 1.1% of the votes, with no representation.
An internal poll prior to Urda: what we know about the study
According to The Objective information, published on November 1, the poll was commissioned by Vox and is based on 1,500 telephone interviews conducted in Spain before the accident.
Readers can compare this scenario with the Demócrata poll average and consult the tools of the general election special.