Narciso Michavila anticipates important changes in the vote in the general elections of November 29. In an interview with Vozpópuli, carried out by Gabriel Sanz in the program «Cara a cara», the president of GAD3 points to PSOE as the party exposed to wear and tear over housing and the response to the Urda railway accident, while maintaining that Vox retains the support of its voters despite having maintained the campaign.
His diagnosis contains a decisive condition: that the movements he says he is observing during his company’s fieldwork are maintained. Michavila speaks of a «vote revolution».
PSOE, facing the risk of losing support over housing and crisis management
In his conversation with Vozpópuli, Michavila places housing among the main electoral weaknesses of the Government. He considers it a mistake to have brought that issue to the center of the election call because, in his view, it is one of the problems that could cost PSOE the most votes.
The sociologist focuses on the difficulties of access to housing among those under 45 years of age. His argument is that the experience of those voters may come into conflict with the message that the Government intends to defend during the campaign.
To that previous problem is now added the management of Urda. Michavila maintains that the political response to the accident, the explanations and the solutions that are announced may modify the decisions of voters.
Vox retains its voters despite maintaining the campaign, according to Michavila
One of the most forceful statements in the interview refers to Vox. Asked about the decision to continue with its campaign, the president of GAD3 rules out that this behavior is harming the party electorally.
«For not having interrupted the campaign, Vox is not losing even half a vote», he assures in Vozpópuli.
The key to his analysis is that voters may interpret the same political action differently. According to Michavila, those who support Vox understand that it maintains its campaign, so he does not observe any punishment for that reason.
The PP: an electoral opportunity that Michavila does not quantify
For Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the president of GAD3 recommends restraint. He asks him to «keep calm» and to place the protection of public servants among his priorities.
Michavila links that advice with his criticism of the singling out of railway workers after the accident. In his view, the PP should defend the professionalism of the Administration and prevent the debate from focusing on assigning responsibility to those who occupy the last rungs of the organization.
Therefore, the interview points to an opportunity for the opposition, but it does not allow its hypothetical benefits to be allocated. A drop in support for the Government may translate into different movements, and the published material does not specify which one predominates.
The calculation of Valladolid: why he believes Puente will remain as candidate
Michavila also introduces a territorial reading of the vote to explain his prediction about Óscar Puente. According to his interpretation, Sánchez would keep the minister as candidate because he considers it difficult for the PSOE to lose its second deputy for Valladolid, a constituency that allocates five seats.
«There is very little possibility that I would end up losing in Valladolid the second deputy for the PSOE», he says when describing the calculation he attributes to the president.
The argument distinguishes two issues: the national political cost of keeping Puente and the possibility of retaining the Socialist seats in his province. That a candidacy can resist territorially does not mean that the controversy lacks effects on the party in Spain as a whole.
A «voting revolution» conditioned on the changes consolidating
The president of GAD3 explains to Vozpópuli that the accident caught his company in the middle of fieldwork. He says that they are following the evolution of the vote, but asks to wait before drawing definitive conclusions.
«My recommendation to all politicians of one color and another is that they stay calm and wait until next week», he notes. The first hours, he argues, are marked by ignorance and disbelief.
That caution coexists with his most emphatic forecast: «The voting revolution that we are having, if it holds like this, the result is going to be absolutely unprecedented».
The parenthetical «if it holds like this» delimits the scope of the statement. Michavila describes movements that he considers relevant, but their consolidation will depend on how the crisis evolves and on the decisions that voters adopt during the remaining weeks.
The interview thus leaves three ideas: the president of GAD3 sees the PSOE under pressure, does not see a punishment for Vox for maintaining the campaign, and advises prudence to the PP. What it still does not provide is the necessary data to turn that diagnosis into a map of vote transfers: how many voters change, where they come from, and whom they choose.